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“The Psychology of Money” by Morgan Housel is a book that explores the psychological and behavioral aspects of personal finance and investing. It delves into how our emotions, biases, and behaviors can impact our financial decisions and outcomes. The Swedish Investor channel on YouTube has an informative video reviewing this book. Below is a summary of the book and video.

1. Wealth is About Behavior, Not Income: Housel emphasizes that building and managing wealth is more about making sound financial decisions and adopting good money behaviors rather than solely relying on high income.

2. The Power of Compounding: The book highlights the incredible impact of compounding over time, and how starting early and staying invested can lead to substantial wealth accumulation. In the video the example of Ronald Read is shown. He is a janitor that died in 2014 with $8 million of savings. He did it by saving his money consistently, investing it in individual stocks and letting the magic of compounding grow his investments over time.

3. The Role of Luck: Housel discusses the often overlooked role of luck in financial success. While skill and hard work are important, luck plays a significant part in determining outcomes as well.

4. Risk and Volatility: The book explains the difference between risk and volatility. While market fluctuations are normal, true risk is the probability of permanently losing capital. Volatility goes hand and hand with stock market returns over the years. If you bought the SPY in 1980, you would have to weather 13 years where you face drops of 20% from the high for the year and for about 8 months you would face a drop of 50%. This is the price you pay for outstanding investment returns over time.

5. Adapting to Change: Housel argues that being adaptable and open to change is crucial in managing finances. Flexibility and the ability to adjust to new circumstances can lead to better outcomes.

6. Behavioral Biases: The book explores various behavioral biases, such as overconfidence, loss aversion, and herd mentality, which can lead to poor financial decisions. Recognizing and mitigating these biases is key to making better choices. In the video, envy is examined as one of the wealth destruction behaviors.

7. The Importance of Saving: Housel stresses the significance of saving and living below your means. Building a strong savings habit provides a financial cushion and opens up opportunities.

8. Goals and Purpose: Defining clear financial goals and understanding the purpose behind your money can help guide your decisions and prevent impulsive behavior.

9. Investing Mistakes: Housel discusses common investing mistakes and misconceptions, such as market timing, chasing trends, and trying to beat the market. He advocates for a long-term, diversified investment approach.

10. Embracing Uncertainty: The book encourages readers to embrace uncertainty and accept that there will always be economic and market ups and downs. Maintaining a long-term perspective can help navigate through volatility. In the video, Black Swan events are given as an example of the what will happen from time-to-time during an investment lifetime. How we react to them will determine whether we keep on a steady course to reach our financial goals by not panicking or making emotional decisions ending up underperforming, like so many do, then coming up short in the retirement years.

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. Disclaimer

• Quant Weekly – Up over 43% since June 2025

• Quant 30 – Up over 43% since June 2025

• Legacy – Up over 280% since April 2023

• Changes to the Quant Portfolios

• Top Quant Stocks – new list

• Education – Position trading concepts and practical lessons

• Powell Industries becomes a 12 bagger.

USA Stock market week ending 04/10/26

Major Index Performance (Weekly)

• S&P 500 proxy (SPY): +3.6%

• Nasdaq proxy (QQQ): +4.5%

• Dow proxy (DIA): +3.1%

• Russell 2000 proxy (IWM): +4.0%

Takeaways

• Oil and geopolitics drove the action: Markets surged on April 8 as ceasefire news eased tensions and sent oil prices sharply lower, though underlying risks hadn’t fully disappeared beneath the surface rally.

• Short-covering amplified the move: Hedge funds rushed to cover short positions in the wake of the ceasefire announcement, adding momentum to the rally and potentially setting the stage for near-term sector rotations. Inflation data provided a quiet tailwind:

• A slightly cooler-than-expected core CPI reading on Friday gave markets an additional lift, helping indexes close the week in positive territory despite lingering geopolitical uncertainty.

Market Drivers Next Week (04/13/26 – 04/17/26)

• Mon Apr 14 — Big Bank Earnings Kick Off: Goldman Sachs leads Q1 reporting, with JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and BlackRock all following on Tuesday. Analysts expect strong financials sector earnings growth, but forward guidance and executive commentary will be the real focus given war-related uncertainty and economic growth concerns.

• Mon Apr 14 — March Existing Home Sales: A read on housing demand amid elevated mortgage rates and consumer spending pressure from high energy costs.

• Tue Apr 15 — March PPI (Producer Price Index): Markets are watching for the impact of higher energy prices flowing through to wholesale inflation, which could shape expectations for the Fed’s next move.

• Wed Apr 16 — Heavy Mid-Week Earnings: ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Netflix, and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) all report — a critical cluster that will test sentiment in tech, financials, and semiconductors simultaneously.

• Thu Apr 17 — March Housing Starts & Building Permits: Fresh data on construction activity as the housing market navigates high rates and cost pressures from energy and materials inflation.

• All Week — Iran Ceasefire Watch: The two-week pause Trump announced April 8 remains the dominant macro wildcard. Any breakdown in negotiations or re-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz would send oil prices surging again and rattle markets broadly.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at Fear 38. After four straight weeks at the Extreme Fear reading, the reading has moved up.

The Quant 30 and Quant Weekly Model Portfolios had large gains for the second week in a row. Quant Weekly went from +33% on 4/6/26 to +43% now. Quant 30 went from +32% to +43% now. Two weeks ago Quant Weekly was at 23% and Quant 30 at 22%. This is an increase of 20% over two weeks. Quant 30 and Quant Alpha’s Legacy Portfolios make all time highs.

A warm welcome to my new members of this paid subscriber newsletter on SubStack .

Note: Starting this week, I plan create a new section called Top Quant Stocks. Each week, I will list up to 10 stocks with high Quant rankings in a specific area. This week, I will start with Dividend stocks. Each list is sorted by Quant ranking with the highest rankings first. Basic liquidity minimums must be meet but the sole criteria for inclusion is the Quant ranking. From time-to-time, I plan to review a previous Top Quant Stocks list and see how it did as a whole over time.

Read more

• Subscribe now

• Quant Weekly – Up over 43% since June 2025

• Quant 30 – Up over 43% since June 2025

• Legacy – Up over 280% since April 2023

• Education – Which USA stock brokers are best when you need to buy fractional shares?

• Powell Industries in the Legacy Portfolio becomes a 12 bagger!

USA Stock market week ending 04/10/26

Major Index Performance (Weekly)

• S&P 500 proxy (SPY): +3.6%

• Nasdaq proxy (QQQ): +4.5%

• Dow proxy (DIA): +3.1%

• Russell 2000 proxy (IWM): +4.0%

Takeaways

• Oil and geopolitics drove the action: Markets surged on April 8 as ceasefire news eased tensions and sent oil prices sharply lower, though underlying risks hadn’t fully disappeared beneath the surface rally.

• Short-covering amplified the move: Hedge funds rushed to cover short positions in the wake of the ceasefire announcement, adding momentum to the rally and potentially setting the stage for near-term sector rotations. Inflation data provided a quiet tailwind:

• A slightly cooler-than-expected core CPI reading on Friday gave markets an additional lift, helping indexes close the week in positive territory despite lingering geopolitical uncertainty.

Market Drivers Next Week (04/13/26 – 04/17/26)

• Mon Apr 14 — Big Bank Earnings Kick Off: Goldman Sachs leads Q1 reporting, with JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and BlackRock all following on Tuesday. Analysts expect strong financials sector earnings growth, but forward guidance and executive commentary will be the real focus given war-related uncertainty and economic growth concerns.

• Mon Apr 14 — March Existing Home Sales: A read on housing demand amid elevated mortgage rates and consumer spending pressure from high energy costs.

• Tue Apr 15 — March PPI (Producer Price Index): Markets are watching for the impact of higher energy prices flowing through to wholesale inflation, which could shape expectations for the Fed’s next move.

• Wed Apr 16 — Heavy Mid-Week Earnings: ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Netflix, and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) all report — a critical cluster that will test sentiment in tech, financials, and semiconductors simultaneously.

• Thu Apr 17 — March Housing Starts & Building Permits: Fresh data on construction activity as the housing market navigates high rates and cost pressures from energy and materials inflation.

• All Week — Iran Ceasefire Watch: The two-week pause Trump announced April 8 remains the dominant macro wildcard. Any breakdown in negotiations or re-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz would send oil prices surging again and rattle markets broadly.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at Fear 38. After four straight weeks at the Extreme Fear reading, the reading has moved up.

The Quant 30 and Quant Weekly Model Portfolios had large gains for the second week in a row. Quant Weekly went from +33% on 4/6/26 to +43% now. Quant 30 went from +32% to +43% now. Two weeks ago Quant Weekly was at 23% and Quant 30 at 22%. This is an increase of 20% over two weeks. Quant 30 and Quant Alpha’s Legacy Portfolios make all time highs.

A warm welcome to my new audience of this free subscriber newsletter on SubStack .

Note: You are enjoying the free subscriber newsletter. Paid subscribers enjoy instant access to weekly Model Portfolio updates upon release and a Top Quant Stocks list. Free subscribers get access to Portfolio updates after a three-week delay but no Top Quant Stocks list. Want timely access to the new Adds/Removes and Top Quant Stocks list? Subscribe at $20 a month or $119 a year.

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly

Any newly added stock is being released to Paid Subscribers today. Below are the updates from three weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to significantly outperform its benchmark, 43% versus 15%. It has 22 members.

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

No changes to the Portfolio this week

Add (03/20/26) : None

Remove (03/20/26) : None

Outperformers: SSRM (SSR Mining) up over 90%, MU (Micron Technology) up over 130%, VISN (Vistance Networks) up over +130%

Click here for the Quant Alpha Weekly details

Model Portfolio Quant 30

This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made three weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 43% to 15%. It has 30 members in it.

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

No changes to the Portfolio this week

Add (03/20/26): None

Remove (03/20/26): None

Outperformers: MU (Micron Technology) up over 200%, GFI (Gold Fields) up over 90%, LITE (Lumentum Holdings) up over 240% and KGC (Kinross Gold) is up over 90%.

Click here for the Quant 30 details

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy

The portfolio is up over +280% since it began in 2023. It has around 18 stocks in it. Powell industries becomes a 12 bagger. Celestica is now a 14 bagger.

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

Powel Industries splits 3×1. Stock soars afterwards.

Remove (03/20/26): None

Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over 700%, STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over 600%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over 1200% and CLS (Celestica) is up over 1400%

Click here for the Quant Alpha’s – Legacy details

Performance to 04-10-2026

Click here for the Live Quant scorecard

Up to 10 stocks each week from different areas of the market. Paid subscribers only.

Which USA stock brokers are best when you need to buy fractional shares?

Best Overall (most balanced)

• Fidelity Investments

  • Best all-around for fractional shares

  • Buy as little as $1 across thousands of stocks & ETFs

  • Strong research + long-term investing tools

  • Good for: serious investors + beginners

Bottom line: If you want one broker and be done with it—this is it.

Best for Simplicity / Beginners

• Robinhood

  • Super easy app, clean UI

  • Fractional shares starting around $1

  • Commission-free

Bottom line: Easiest way to start, but lighter on tools.

Best for Advanced / Active Traders

• Interactive Brokers

  • Access to 10,000+ fractional stocks globally

  • Pro-level tools, low costs

  • Not beginner-friendly

Bottom line: If you’re serious and want global + pro tools, this is your lane.

Solid Alternatives

• Charles Schwab

  • “Stock Slices” (S&P 500 only, $5 minimum)

• SoFi

  • Easy platform, good for beginners

• Webull

  • More trading tools + fractional shares

Recap:

• Want the best combo of everything? → Fidelity

• Just getting started / want easy? → Robinhood or Sofi

• Serious trader? → Interactive Brokers

• Only buying big names (S&P 500)? → Schwab works

Website Investment Educational Blog Posts

PositionTrader.Blog – Blog Post Overview

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated. Disclaimer

• Quant 30 – Up over 32% since June 2025

• Quant Weekly – Up over 33% since June 2025

• Legacy – Up over 270% since April 2023

• Changes to the Quant Portfolios

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USA Stock market week ending 04/03/26

Major Index Performance (Weekly)

• S&P 500: +3.4% (weekly) — rebounded strongly after early-week weakness

• Nasdaq: +4.4% (weekly) — led gains, driven by tech strength

• Dow Jones: Solid weekly gain (+3.0%) — lagged slightly vs. Nasdaq

• Russell 2000: (+3.3%) Outperformed late week; positive overall — small caps showed relative strength

Takeaways

• Despite a weak start, markets staged a powerful rebound, with Nasdaq leading and small caps gaining momentum late.

• The week was dominated by geopolitical risk and oil prices, creating a split market: energy & defensives up, consumer sectors down.

• Overall tone: risk-on recovery with macro overhang still elevated.

Market Drivers Next Week (04/06/26 – 04/10/26)

• Mon, Apr 6 — March Jobs Report Reaction: Markets finally react to Friday’s jobs data (released on Good Friday when markets were closed), with economists expecting 57,000 jobs added in March — a recovery from the prior month’s loss of 92,000 — and unemployment holding at 4.4%.

• Mon, Apr 6 — U.S.-Iran Diplomatic Deadline: The single most watched event of the week. President Trump set April 6 as the deadline for Iran diplomacy — a de-escalation could quickly reverse oil prices and ease inflation fears, while further escalation risks pushing crude even higher and deepening stagflation concerns.

• Ongoing — Oil Prices & Strait of Hormuz: Brent crude is trading above $110/barrel amid fears of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure. Energy is the standout sector of 2026, up over 41% YTD, while elevated oil prices continue to feed directly into headline inflation and weigh on consumer spending.

• Tue, Apr 7 — ISM Services PMI (March): A critical read on the health of the U.S. service sector — the dominant driver of domestic GDP — as analysts watch for signs that rising energy costs and softening consumer demand are beginning to bite.

• Wed, Apr 9 — FOMC Minutes Released: Markets will parse the minutes closely for signals on the Fed’s next move. Fed Chair Powell’s recent remarks that inflation expectations remain well anchored sparked a sharp reversal in rate expectations, with traders now pricing in modest rate cuts later in 2026 after briefly pricing in hikes.

• Thu, Apr 9 — Q4 2025 GDP Final Estimate: The third and final Q4 GDP reading gives the clearest picture of economic momentum heading into a turbulent 2026, and will inform how investors frame the stagflation vs. soft-landing debate.

• Thu, Apr 9 — February PCE Price Index: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is forecast to ease slightly to around 3.0%. As the last data point before the Iran conflict’s inflationary impact fully shows up in numbers, it serves as a key baseline for the Fed’s policy path.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at Extreme Fear 15. This is the fourth week in row at the Extreme Fear level.

The Quant 30 and Quant Weekly Model Portfolios went from up 22% and 23% respectively to up 32% and 33%. An increase of 10 percentage points in one week.

To get the up-to-date changes to the market beating three Quant Model Portfolios convert to a Paid subscription. The subscription has a 7 day trial period.

Read more

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USA Stock market last week 03/27/26

Major Index Performance (Weekly)

• S&P 500: -2.3% for the week, marking another weekly decline amid continued geopolitical uncertainty and rising energy prices.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.0% for the week, briefly entering correction territory after sharp late-week losses.

• Nasdaq Composite: -3.2% for the week as growth and technology shares remained under pressure.

• Russell 2000: +0.4% for the week, with small-caps showing some signs of life.

Takeaways

• Most major U.S. indexes declined again, extending the market’s losing streak.

• Energy and gold-related stocks were the main winners.

• Technology, consumer discretionary, and financials were the biggest laggards as inflation and geopolitical risks dominated investor focus.

Market Drivers This Week (03/30/26 – 04/03/26)

1. Wed, Apr 1 – ISM Manufacturing PMI release

   • The first business day of the month brings the ISM Manufacturing PMI, a key gauge of industrial momentum and an early signal of recession risk or resilience.

2. Fri, Apr 3 – March Nonfarm Payrolls report

   • The jobs report is the most anticipated macro catalyst of the week, shaping expectations for Fed policy and recession risk after signs of labor-market softening.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at Extreme Fear 10. This is the third week in a row at the Extreme Fear level.

The Quant 30 and Quant Weekly Model Portfolios manage to generate small overall gains this week despite the major averages being solidly down.

To get the up-to-date changes to the three Quant Model Portfolios convert to a Paid subscription. The subscription has a 7 day trial period.

Read more

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“The Millionaire Next Door,” written by Thomas Stanley, is a book that challenges common misconceptions about wealth and offers insights into the habits and behaviors of self-made millionaires in the United States. The central theme of the book is that many millionaires are not the extravagant spenders often portrayed in the media, but rather individuals who live frugally, save diligently, and make prudent financial decisions. Some key points from the book include:

• Frugality: The book highlights that many millionaires are frugal and cost-conscious, living below their means and avoiding excessive consumption.

• Savings: Self-made millionaires prioritize saving a significant portion of their income. They consistently invest and reinvest their savings to accumulate wealth over time.

• Budgeting: Millionaires often adhere to budgets and carefully track their expenses. This disciplined approach helps them control their financial decisions.

• Investing: The book emphasizes that millionaires focus on long-term investments rather than speculative ventures. They prefer safer and proven investment strategies.

• Entrepreneurship: Many millionaires are business owners and entrepreneurs who build wealth through hard work, innovation, and dedication to their enterprises.

• Education: Education and continuous learning are highly valued by millionaires. They invest in their own knowledge and skills to adapt to changing economic conditions.

• Risk Management: Millionaires are cautious with their financial decisions, and they prioritize risk management to protect their wealth from unexpected events.

• Avoiding Debt: The book stresses that millionaires avoid unnecessary debt and prioritize paying off any debts they have.

• Ownership vs. Consumption: Millionaires are more likely to invest in assets that appreciate over time, such as real estate, rather than indulging in luxury goods or extravagant lifestyles.

• Strong Work Ethic: Millionaires often have a strong work ethic, perseverance, and a focus on building their careers or businesses.

• Privacy: Many millionaires maintain a low profile and don’t flaunt their wealth. They prioritize financial security over conspicuous consumption.

• Family Values: The book discusses the importance of instilling strong financial values in children and passing down responsible money management habits.

Overall, “The Millionaire Next Door” provides a unique perspective on wealth accumulation by examining the habits, attitudes, and behaviors of everyday millionaires. The book challenges common stereotypes and offers practical lessons for anyone seeking to build long-term wealth through disciplined financial practices.

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. Disclaimer

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“The Intelligent Investor,” written by Benjamin Graham, is a classic book on value investing and financial principles. Published in 1949, the book provides guidance on how to approach investing in stocks and bonds with a focus on long-term success and risk management. It introduces the concept of Mr. Market, representing the fluctuating and often irrational behavior of the stock market.

Some takeaways from the book

• Investment vs. Speculation: Graham distinguishes between investing and speculation, emphasizing the importance of making informed and rational decisions rather than succumbing to market trends and speculation.

• Mr. Market Concept: Graham introduces the analogy of Mr. Market, representing the irrational and emotional behavior of the stock market. He advises investors to take advantage of market fluctuations rather than being influenced by them.

• Margin of Safety: Graham emphasizes the concept of a margin of safety, which involves purchasing securities at prices significantly below their intrinsic value. This approach helps to protect against losses in case of unforeseen market changes.

• Value Investing: The book lays the foundation for value investing, where investors seek out stocks that are trading below their intrinsic value based on fundamental analysis, such as earnings, dividends, and book value.

• Defensive vs. Enterprising Investors: Graham categorizes investors into two types: defensive investors, who prefer a passive approach through diversification and low-cost index funds, and enterprising investors, who are more active and engaged in researching undervalued stocks.

• Investment Fundamentals: Graham provides insights into financial statements, explaining key concepts such as earnings per share, book value, and dividends. He encourages investors to analyze these metrics to make informed decisions.

• Market Fluctuations: The book addresses the inevitability of market fluctuations and suggests that investors should not panic during downturns but instead take advantage of opportunities presented by undervalued stocks.

• Emotional Aspects of Investing: Graham delves into the psychological challenges that investors face, cautioning against emotional decision-making and advocating for a disciplined and rational approach to investing.

• Bond Investing: The book covers the basics of bond investing, discussing different types of bonds and their risks and rewards. It also offers guidance on how to analyze and select bonds.

• Portfolio Management: Graham provides advice on constructing and managing an investment portfolio, including the importance of diversification, reevaluation, and rebalancing over time.

• Market History: The book explores historical market trends and patterns to provide context for understanding market cycles and potential future developments.

• Investor Behavior: Graham emphasizes the significance of understanding one’s own risk tolerance, goals, and investment philosophy. He encourages investors to develop a clear strategy that aligns with their individual circumstances.

The book offers a comprehensive guide to value investing principles, risk management, and a rational approach to navigating the complexities of the financial markets.

Benjamin Graham (1894–1976) was a British-born American economist, professor, and professional investor, widely recognized as the "father of value investing". He authored foundational investment texts, most notably The Intelligent Investor (1949) and Security Analysis (1934, with David Dodd), which established principles for analyzing stocks based on intrinsic value, influencing investors like Warren Buffett.

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. Disclaimer

• Quant 30 – Up over 21% since June 2025

• Quant Weekly – Up over 21% since June 2025

• Legacy – Up over 270% since April 2023

• Education – How do USA Defense Stocks Perform During and After Major Conflicts?

USA Stock market last week 03/20/26

Major Index Performance (Weekly)

• S&P 500: -2.1% for the week, marking a fourth consecutive weekly decline.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -2.3% for the week as industrial and cyclical stocks weakened.

• Nasdaq Composite: -2.1% for the week, underperforming due to continued pressure on technology stocks.

• Russell 2000: -1.6% for the week, with small-caps hit hard and entering correction territory.

Takeaways

• Broad market declines across all major indexes

• Energy stocks outperforming sharply

• Technology and small-cap sectors leading losses

• Geopolitical and inflation pressures dominating market direction

Market Drivers This Week (03/23/26 – 03/27/26)

• Tue, Mar 24 – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

• This regional manufacturing gauge provided an early read on U.S. industrial activity and business sentiment following recent geopolitical disruptions.

• Tue, Mar 24 – Productivity & Unit Labor Cost Revisions

• Updated labor-cost data helped investors reassess inflation pressure from wages, a key variable for Federal Reserve policy.

• Wed, Mar 25 – Import & Export Price Index Data

• Trade price data offered insight into external inflation pressures and supply-chain cost trends affecting multinational companies.

• Wed, Mar 25 – 5-Year Treasury Note Auction

• Strong or weak demand for mid-duration Treasuries influenced the direction of yields and rate-sensitive sectors like technology and real estate.

• Thu, Mar 26 – 7-Year Treasury Note Auction

• A key event for the bond market; poor demand historically leads to yield spikes that can pressure equity valuations, especially growth stocks.

• Fri, Mar 27 – Final Q4 GDP Revision Released

• The government’s final estimate of fourth-quarter GDP gave investors a clearer picture of the economy’s underlying strength entering 2026.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at Extreme Fear 15. This makes two straight weeks at the Extreme Fear reading.

The Quant 30 and Quant Weekly Model Portfolios dropped a bit more following the general trend of the market.

Note: Choose between free and paid subscription levels. Paid subscribers enjoy instant access to weekly Portfolio updates upon release. Free subscribers access Portfolio updates after a three-week delay. Want timely access to the new Adds/Removes? Click here.

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly

Any newly added stock is being released to Paid Subscribers today. Below are the updates from three weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to significantly outperform its benchmark, 21% versus 10%.

No Adds to the Portfolio this week

Add (02/27/26) : None

Outperformers: SSRM (SSR Mining) up over 40%, MU (Micron Technology) up over 160%, VISN (Vistance Networks) up over +120%

Click here for the Quant Alpha Weekly details

Model Portfolio Quant 30

This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made three weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 21% to 10%.

One Add to the Portfolio this week

Add (02/27/26): TAYD (Taylor Devices)

Remove (02/27/26): CCL (Carnival Cruise)

Outperformers: MU (Micron Technology) up over 240%, GFI (Gold Fields) up over 60%, LITE (Lumentum Holdings) up over 190% and KGC (Kinross Gold) is up over 60%.

Click here for the Quant 30 details

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy

The portfolio now has around 19 stocks in it. It is up over +270% since it began in 2023. Celestica in now a 10 bagger.

Remove (02/27/26): None

Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over 500%, STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over 500%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over 800% and CLS (Celestica) is up over 1000%

Click here for the Quant Alpha’s – Legacy details

Performance to 03-20-2026

Click here for the Live Quant scorecard

The Quant Alpha Weekly Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. Up over 21% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant 30 Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. It is up 21% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant Alpha’s – Legacy Portfolio maintained its over 270% return since April 2023, in a classic Position Trading Portfolio implementation.

How do USA Defense Stocks Perform During and After Major Conflicts?

Historical Performance by Conflict

World War II & Korean War

• During World War II and the Korean War, U.S. stocks rose 17% and 19%, respectively, well above the average market return of between 8% and 10%

Gulf War (1990-1991)

• When Iraq invaded Kuwait and seized its oilfields in 1990, the S&P 500 traded down by 15.9% due to oil shock concerns

• The Gulf War was fought in an era of defense budget contraction, with defense spending dropping from 6.8% of GDP in 1990 to 3.8% by 2000.

Afghanistan War (2001-2021)

• $10,000 invested evenly in the top five defense contractors on September 18, 2001, would have grown to $97,295 by the war’s end.

• $10,000 invested in an S&P 500 index fund on the same date would be worth $61,613, meaning defense stocks outperformed the stock market overall by 58 percent during the Afghanistan War.

• In less than two decades, the price of shares of the top five defense contractors increased between 3 and 12 times.

Iraq War (2003+)

• Defense stocks outperformed the S&P 500 index for three years running (2000, 2001 and 2002).

• From the commencement of the war on Iraq in March 2003, the S&P’s Aerospace and Defense index almost tripled in the next 4 years, easily outstripping the S&P 500’s gains.

Russia-Ukraine War (2022-Present)

• In 2022, the Invesco Aerospace and Defense ETF (NYSE: PPA) index gained 8.6%, outperforming the broader U.S. market by 28% CNBC

• This rise was led by Allegheny Technologies (+87%), Maxar Technologies (+75%) and Northrop Grumman (+41%) CNBC

• Assets invested in the sector’s exchange-traded funds are up 268% and now total more than $11 billion.

Israel-Hamas Conflict (2023)

• The October 2023 Israel–Hamas conflict had a local effect on the Israeli defense industry without contributing to the spread of geopolitical risk globally.

Key Performance Patterns

Long-Term Outperformance:

• Over the past 27 years, the defense sector produced positive gains in 22 years and outperformed the U.S. stock market in 18.

• As defense spending reduces or spending priority changes after wars end, defense stocks are expected to do no better than the overall market.

Bottom Line

Defense stocks historically deliver:

• 58-87% outperformance vs. the broader market during prolonged conflicts

• Short-term spikes of 40-87% for individual companies when direct U.S. involvement is announced

• Lower volatility during wartime compared to peacetime

• 3-12x returns over multi-decade war periods for top contractors

• Mean reversion after conflicts end as defense budgets normalize

Top 10 Defense Stocks by Size and YTD Performance

Website Investment Educational Blog Posts –

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated. Disclaimer

• Quant 30 – Up over 24% since June 2025

• Quant Weekly – Up over 26% since June 2025

• Legacy – Up over 270% since April 2023

• Education – How do Value stocks compare to Growth stocks over time?

USA Stock market last week 03/13/26

Weekly returns across major U.S. indexes (approx):

• S&P 500: -1.5% for the week as geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices pressured equities.

• Nasdaq Composite: -1.2% for the week, with technology stocks leading much of the decline.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.9% for the week as cyclicals and financials weakened amid macro concerns.

• Russell 2000: -1.7% for the week as small-cap stocks underperformed during the risk-off environment

Takeaways:

• Rising oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions and disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz.

• Inflation fears tied to higher energy costs.

• Higher Treasury yields, which pressured high-growth stocks.

• Risk-off sentiment, leading investors toward defensive sectors like utilities and staples.

Market Drivers This Week (03/16/26 – 03/20/26)

• Mon, Mar 16 – U.S. Retail Sales Report

• A key indicator of consumer spending and economic momentum. Strong or weak retail sales can significantly move consumer discretionary and retail stocks.

• Tue, Mar 17 – Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Begins

• The two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting begins, with investors closely watching for signals about future interest-rate policy.

• Wed, Mar 18 – U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)

• Inflation data measuring wholesale prices provided clues about future consumer inflation and potential Fed policy responses.

• Wed, Mar 18 – Federal Reserve Policy Decision

• The Fed released its rate decision and updated outlook for interest rates, economic growth, and inflation, often one of the most significant market catalysts each quarter.

• Thu, Mar 19 – Global Central Bank Activity

• Policy decisions from major global central banks (including the ECB and BOJ) contribute to global market volatility and currency movements.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at Extreme Fear 20. After four weeks in the Fear rank the Index has dropped to the lowest rank.

The Quant 30 and Quant Weekly Model Portfolios dropped slightly this week reflecting the overall market drop. The Middle East war continues to bring uncertainty to the market direction.

Note: Choose between free and paid subscription levels. Paid subscribers enjoy instant access to weekly Portfolio updates upon release. Free subscribers access Portfolio updates after a three-week delay. Want timely access to the new Adds/Removes? Click here.

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly

Any newly added stock is being released to Paid Subscribers today. Below are the updates from three weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to significantly outperform its benchmark, 26% versus 12%.

One Add to the Portfolio this week

Add (02/20/26) : LITE (Lumentum Holdings)

Remove (02/20/26): NONE

Outperformers: SSRM (SSR Mining) up over 70%, MU (Micron Technology) up over 170%, VISN (Vistance Networks) up over +120%

Click here for the Quant Alpha Weekly details

Model Portfolio Quant 30

This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made three weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 24% to 12%.

Three Adds to the Portfolio this week

Add (02/20/26): NESR (National Energy Services) , FRO (Frontline plc) , GM (General Motors) , AIR (AAR Corp)

Remove (02/20/26): SGHT (Sight Sciences) , HRTG (Heritage Insurance) , VISN (Vistance Networks), GH (Guardant Health)

Outperformers: MU (Micron Technology) up over 240%, GFI (Gold Fields) up over 80%, LITE (Lumentum Holdings) up over 150% and KGC (Kinross Gold) is up over 90%.

Click here for the Quant 30 details

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy

The portfolio now has around 19 stocks in it. It is up over +270% since it began in 2023. Celestica in now a 10 bagger.

Remove (02/20/26): None

Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over 500%, STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over 500%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over 800% and CLS (Celestica) is up over 1000%

Click here for the Quant Alpha’s – Legacy details

Performance to 03-13-2026

Click here for the Live Quant scorecard

The Quant Alpha Weekly Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. Up over 26% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant 30 Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. It is up 24% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant Alpha’s – Legacy Portfolio maintained its over 270% return since April 2023, in a classic Position Trading Portfolio implementation.

How do Value stocks compare to Growth stocks over time?

Key Findings:

• Growth dominated for most of the period (2011-2020, 2023-2024), winning 10 out of 15 years

• Value significantly outperformed in 2022 when growth fell -29.3% vs value’s -7.7%

• 2025-2026 marks a shift: Value is currently outperforming growth by nearly 14 percentage points YTD

• Average annual returns: Growth 14.9% vs Value 10.3% over the full period

• Best year for Value: 2013 at 32.1%

• Best year for Growth: 2023 at 42.6%

Break it down by Year:

How do Value and Growth stocks compare to each other this year?

Year-to-Date Performance (through early March 2026):

Russell 3000 Value has surged to an 8.9% year-to-date gain, while large-cap growth has declined 4.8%, creating a nearly 14-percentage-point performance gap — one of the most significant leadership shifts since the early 2000s.

Key Performance Metrics:

• Russell 1000 Value (IWD): Up 4% year-to-date in 2026 and 11% over the past 6 months

• Russell 1000 Growth (IWF): Up approximately 90% over the past five years but significantly underperforming value in 2026

• Russell 2000 Value: Leading with an 8.9% YTD gain, dramatically outpacing growth

• Overall Russell 3000 Value vs Growth: The Russell 1000 Value Index has advanced 8.6% from early November through February, beating its growth counterpart by 14 percentage points.

Website Investment Educational Blog Posts –

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated. Disclaimer

• Quant 30 – Up over 26% since June 2025

• Quant Weekly – Up over 27% since June 2025

• Legacy – Up over 270% since April 2023

• Education – What is the best time of the day to buy USA stocks?

USA Stock market last week 03/06/26

Weekly returns across major U.S. indexes (approx):

• S&P 500: −2.0% for the week, closing near 6,740 on March 6.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: −3.0% for the week, closing around 47,501.

• Nasdaq Composite: −1.2% for the week, closing near 22,387.

• Russell 2000: −4.1% for the week, underperforming large caps as risk appetite weakened.

Takeaways

• The week marked Wall Street’s worst performance in several months, driven by geopolitical risk, surging oil prices, and weakening economic data.

• Small-cap stocks lagged significantly, indicating a shift toward risk-off positioning by investors.

Market Drivers This Week (03/09/26 – 03/13/26)

• March 9 (Mon): Geopolitical Risk Carryover – Markets open the week cautious as investors continued reacting to escalating Middle East tensions and the prior week’s surge in oil prices, which raised concerns about inflation and global growth.

• March 10 (Tue): Small Business & Housing Data – The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and existing home sales data give investors insight into the strength of the U.S. consumer and domestic economic momentum.

• March 11 (Wed): CPI Inflation Report – The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most important macro event of the week, heavily influencing expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate policy.

• March 12 (Thu): Jobless Claims Data – Weekly initial unemployment claims are closely watched after the previous week’s surprisingly weak payroll report, which raised concerns about labor-market softness.

• March 12 (Thu): Trade Deficit & Housing Data – New data on the U.S. trade balance, housing starts, and building permits helps shape expectations for economic growth in Q1.

• March 13 (Fri): PCE Inflation Data – The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is another major driver for interest-rate expectations.

• March 13 (Fri): GDP Revision & Durable Goods – Updated U.S. GDP estimates and durable goods orders provide further clues about the strength of business investment and economic momentum.

• Earnings Reports (Throughout the Week) – Corporate results from companies such as Adobe, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Dollar General, and Ulta Beauty gave insight into AI spending, enterprise tech demand, and consumer health.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at Fear 27. This makes four weeks in a row in the Fear area.

The Quant 30 and Quant Weekly Model Portfolios took a pounding this week as the market in general dropped with the momentum stocks leading the way down, as they always do. Since a middle east war has now been started and wars are unpredictable, it is unclear what the next few weeks will bring.

Note: Choose between free and paid subscription levels. Paid subscribers enjoy instant access to weekly Portfolio updates upon release. Free subscribers access identical content, with Portfolio updates published after a two-week waiting period. Starting next week, it will be three week delay for free subscribers. Want timely access to the new Adds/Removes? Click here.

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly

Any newly added stock is being released to Paid Subscribers today. Below are the updates from two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to significantly outperform its benchmark, 27% versus 14%.

One Add to the Portfolio this week

Add (02/20/26) : LITE (Lumentum Holdings)

Remove (02/20/26): NONE

Outperformers: CDE (Coeur Mining) up over 60%, MU (Micron Technology) up over 130%, VISN (Vistance Networks) up over +110%

Click here for the Quant Alpha Weekly details

Model Portfolio Quant 30

This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 26% to 14%.

Three Adds to the Portfolio this week

Add (02/20/26): NESR (National Energy Services) , FRO (Frontline plc) , GM (General Motors) , AIR (AAR Corp)

Remove (02/20/26): SGHT (Sight Sciences) , HRTG (Heritage Insurance) , VISN (Vistance Networks), GH (Guardant Health)

Outperformers: MU (Micron Technology) up over 200%, GFI (Gold Fields) up over 100%, LITE (Lumentum Holdings) up over 130% and KGC (Kinross Gold) is up over 100%.

Click here for the Quant 30 details

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy

The portfolio now has around 19 stocks in it. It is up over +270% since it began in 2023.

Remove (02/20/26): None

Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over 400%, PSIX (Power Solutions)up over 100%, STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over 500%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over 800% and CLS (Celestica) is up over 900%

Click here for the Quant Alpha’s – Legacy details

Performance to 03-06-2026

Click here for the Live Quant scorecard

The Quant Alpha Weekly Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. Up over 27% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant 30 Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. It is up 26% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant Alpha’s – Legacy Portfolio maintained its over 270% return since April 2023, in a classic Position Trading Portfolio implementation.

What is the best time of the day to buy USA stocks?

The Best Hour of the Day

• The Morning Rush (9:30 AM – 10:30 AM ET): This is the window of peak volatility. Overnight news and international market moves get priced in during the first hour.

  • Best for: Experienced traders looking to capitalize on “gaps” (when a stock opens much lower/higher than it closed).

• The Midday Lull (11:30 AM – 2:00 PM ET): Often called the “lunchtime doldrums.” Volume drops, and price movements tend to flatten out.

  • Best for: Beginners or long-term investors who want to avoid the “head fakes” and wild swings of the opening hour.

• The Power Hour (3:00 PM – 4:00 PM ET): Volume surges again as institutional investors and fund managers “square up” their positions before the close.

  • Best for: Catching a trend that is likely to continue into the next day.

The Best Day of the Week

In the current 2026 market environment, the “Monday Effect” remains a popular theory, though it isn’t a guarantee:

• Monday Morning: Historically, Mondays have a reputation for being slightly “red” as investors digest negative news from the weekend. This can create a “buy the dip” opportunity.

• Friday Afternoon: Conversely, Fridays often see a “Friday Fade” or “Friday Rally” as traders decide whether they want to hold positions over the weekend. In 2026, with heightened geopolitical uncertainty (e.g., Greenland/Venezuela trade tensions), Fridays have seen more defensive selling.

The Best Strategy for Most People

If you aren’t a professional day trader, the “best time” is mathematically proven to be as soon as you have the money.

“Time in the market beats timing the market.”

Instead of waiting for 10:15 AM on a Tuesday, most successful investors in 2026 use Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA). This means buying a fixed amount at the same time every month (e.g., the 1st or 15th), regardless of the price.

S&P 500 Performance by Weekday (10-Year Average)

Key Insights from the Decade

• The “Tuesday Turnaround”: In the last 10 years, Tuesday has frequently outpaced all other days of the week combined in terms of annualized returns. This is often attributed to institutional investors placing orders after Monday’s data is fully digested.

• The Federal Reserve Factor: Because the Fed almost always releases its interest rate decisions on a Wednesday, that specific day accounts for the highest single-day volatility spikes of the year.

• Monday Volatility: Monday remains the day with the widest “range” (the difference between the high and low price). While its average return is lower, its potential for big swings is the highest due to the 48-hour accumulation of global news.

• Friday’s Reliability: Fridays have a high “win rate” (percentage of days closing positive), but the actual percentage gain is often capped by traders selling off to “lock in” profits before the weekend.

Website Investment Educational Blog Posts –

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated. Disclaimer

• Quant 30 – Up over 43% since June 2025

• Quant Weekly – Up over 44% since June 2025

• Legacy – Up over 270% since April 2023

• Education – Is the “SaaS Apocalypse” a real threat to the future of USA software companies or is it a manufactured scare tactic to induce selling?

News alert – Middle East war outbreak: What would be the impact to the US economy if the Strait of Hormuz was closed for one week?

USA Stock market last week 02/27/26

Weekly returns across major U.S. indexes (approx):

• S&P 500: Down modestly — finished roughly -0.4% on the week.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Lower — down about -1.3% for the week.

• Nasdaq Composite: Lower — roughly -1.0% on the week.

• Russell 2000: Lower — around -1.2% for the week.

What this means:
The major U.S. benchmarks all finished the week in negative territory, with small caps (Russell 2000) and technology-heavy Nasdaq both declining alongside broad equities.

Takeaways

• Market direction: Weak week across the board — S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow, and Russell 2000 all ended lower.

• Weakest segments: Technology and AI/Software-linked names, driven by rotation and profit expectations.

• More resilient areas: Energy, materials, and staples showed relative strength in context (YTD trend).

• Investor sentiment: Elevated fear and profit-taking signaled caution among traders.

Market Drivers This Week (03/02/26 – 03/06/26)

Tue, Mar 3 – Fed Officials Speeches (John Williams & Neel Kashkari)
• Fed commentary can shift expectations for future monetary policy, impacting interest-rate-sensitive sectors like tech and real estate.

Wed, Mar 4 – ADP Employment Report
• A mid-week jobs preview that often sets the tone for Friday’s broader nonfarm payrolls release. Employment data shapes rate outlook and equity momentum.

Wed, Mar 4 – ISM Services PMI & S&P Services PMI
• Services data provide insight on inflationary pressures and economic momentum, affecting consumer-oriented sectors and banks.

Fri, Mar 6 – U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate + Wage Data
• The most market-sensitive release of the week. Strong jobs data can delay rate cuts and boost yields; weak data supports risk assets.

Earnings Reports Throughout the Week
• Late-season Q4 earnings continue, with major names like Target (TGT), Costco (COST), Broadcom (AVGO), Broadcom (AVGO), Best Buy (BBY) and others reporting — earnings surprises can drive sector rotation.

Bottom Line

The week is data-heavy and macro-focused, with jobs and PMI figures being the standout catalysts, Fed speeches shaping policy expectations, and corporate earnings continuing to influence sector leadership. Rising or falling yields and ongoing trade/geopolitical narratives will further amplify moves across stocks and sectors.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at Fear 43.

The Quant 30 and Quant Weekly Model Portfolios closed the week at all-time highs for the third week in a row.

Note: Choose between free and paid subscription levels. Paid subscribers enjoy instant access to weekly Portfolio updates upon release. Free subscribers access identical content, with Portfolio updates published after a two-week waiting period. Want timely access to the new Adds/Removes? Click here.

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly

Any newly added stock is being released to Paid Subscribers today. Below are the updates from two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to significantly outperform its benchmark, 44% versus 17%.

One Add to the Portfolio this week

Add (02/13/26) : CIEN (Ciena)

Remove (02/13/26): PQY (Pagaya Technologies)

Outperformers: CDE (Coeur Mining) up over 90%, MU (Micron Technology) up over 160%, VISN (Vistance Networks) up over +120%

Click here for the Quant Alpha Weekly details

Model Portfolio Quant 30

This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 43% to 17%.

One Add to the Portfolio this week

Add (02/13/26): RY (Royal Bank of Canada)

Remove (02/13/26): PQY (Pagaya Technologies)

Outperformers: MU (Micron Technology) up over 230%, GFI (Gold Fields) up over 140%, LITE (Lumentum Holdings) up over 190% and KGC (Kinross Gold) is up over 130%.

Click here for the Quant 30 details

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy

The portfolio now has around 19 stocks in it. It is up over +270% since it began in 2023. Celestica achieves a 10 bagger performance.

Remove (02/13/26): None

Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over 500%, PSIX (Power Solutions)up over 300%, STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over 600%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over 800% and CLS (Celestica) is up over 1000%

Click here for the Quant Alpha’s – Legacy details

Performance to 02-27-2026

Click here for the Live Quant scorecard

The Quant Alpha Weekly Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. Up over 44% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant 30 Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. It is up 43% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant Alpha’s – Legacy Portfolio maintained its over 270% return since April 2023, in a classic Position Trading Portfolio implementation.

Is the “SaaS Apocalypse” a real threat to the future of USA software companies or is it a manufactured scare tactic to induce selling?

The “SaaS Apocalypse” (or SaaSpocalypse) is a term that gained massive traction in early 2026, particularly after a brutal February where over $1 trillion in market value was wiped from software stocks.

Whether it is a “real threat” or a “manufactured scare” depends on which part of the software market you are looking at. It is best described as a structural evolution rather than a total extinction event.

Why it feels like a “Real Threat” (The Fundamentals)

The panic is rooted in four very real shifts that are breaking the traditional SaaS business model:

• The “Per-Seat” Model is Dying: For 20 years, SaaS grew by charging per user. But as AI agents begin doing the work of ten people, companies are slashing “seat counts,” causing revenue to crater for companies that haven’t shifted to usage-based pricing.

• Collapsing Creation Costs: “Vibe coding” and advanced AI agents (like Anthropic’s Claude Cowork) allow developers to build complex tools in hours that used to take months. This erodes the “moat” for simple, horizontal software like basic CRM or project management tools.

• Budget Cannibalization: Enterprise IT budgets aren’t growing much, but AI spending is up over 100% year-over-year. This money is being “harvested” directly from old SaaS subscriptions to pay for new AI infrastructure.

• The “Workflow Disruption”: Tools that automate entire workflows (like legal administration or expense tracking) are repricing entire sectors, making traditional software that just “organizes” data feel obsolete.

Why it feels like a “Scare Tactic” (The Market Reflex)

Many analysts, including those from JP Morgan and Wedbush’s Dan Ives, argue the sell-off has been “indiscriminate” and ignores the massive friction of changing enterprise software.

• The Governance Tax: While a startup can “vibe code” a new app in a weekend, it cannot easily replicate the security, compliance, and integration history of a giant like Salesforce or Workday.

• High Switching Costs: Enterprises are notoriously slow to change. Replacing a “System of Record” (where all a company’s data lives) is an operational nightmare that most CIOs will avoid unless the alternative is significantly better and cheaper.

• Integration over Extinction: Industry leaders like Nvidia’s Jensen Huang argue that AI will use existing software platforms as “tools” rather than replacing them.

The Verdict: Winners vs. Losers

Which USA software stocks have been most impacted in 2026?

• Atlassian (TEAM): -51.45% YTD One of the primary victims of the “seat count” contraction narrative. As AI automates developer tasks, the market has heavily penalized Atlassian’s core workflow model.

• Workday (WDAY): -35.00% YTD Despite strong historical earnings, Workday faced massive selling pressure in February as investors feared a slowdown in HR and financial software spending in favor of AI infrastructure.

• UiPath (PATH): -34.11% YTD Formerly the darling of “Robotic Process Automation,” UiPath struggled to convince the market that its software wasn’t being commoditized by native AI agents from larger platform players.

• Unity Software (U): -34.12% YTD Suffered an early-year “diving” trend as the gaming and creative engine sector faced intense competition and a shift in how 3D assets are generated via AI.

• HubSpot (HUBS): -30.23% YTD The CRM mid-market leader saw significant valuation compression, trading nearly 68% below its 2025 highs by late February 2026.

• Salesforce (CRM): -23.19% YTD Even with aggressive AI messaging (Agentforce), the industry giant wasn’t immune. It saw a nearly 25% drop from its January peak as analysts lowered targets to reflect “valuation compression.”

• Snowflake (SNOW): -22.25% YTD A “double-edged sword” stock; while its product revenue grew 30%, its high valuation made it a prime target for the February drawdowns during the SaaS sell-off.

• Adobe (ADBE): -21.28% YTD Adobe faced “poor price momentum” throughout early 2026 as fears persisted that generative AI models could eventually erode its dominance in creative professional software.

• Digital Turbine (APPS): -15.80% YTD A smaller player that was swept up in the software breakdown, struggling to maintain its growth profile amidst the broader “SaaSpocalypse” sentiment.

• Twilio (TWLO): -12.55% YTD While it fared better than the high-growth “hyper-cloud” names, Twilio still underperformed the S&P 500 significantly as investors exited communication-API heavy stocks.

Website Investment Educational Blog Posts –

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated. Disclaimer

• Quant 30 – Up over 40% since June

• Quant Weekly – Up over 42% since June

• Legacy – Up over 270% since April 2023

• Education – What would be the impact to the US economy if the Strait of Hormuz was closed for one week?

The Supreme Court overturned the IEEPA tariffs. Click here to see previous info about this on this website.

USA Stock market last week 02/20/26

Weekly returns across major U.S. indexes (approx):

• S&P 500: Up modestly for the week, finishing higher by about +1.1%.

• Nasdaq Composite: Up, gaining around +1.5% for the week.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Up slightly, roughly +0.3% on the week.

• Russell 2000 (small caps): Flat to slight gain (~+0.1%).

Takeaways

• Market direction: The week ended modestly positive for major benchmarks, led by a Friday relief rally.

• Strongest sectors: Energy, tech rebound, consumer staples/e-commerce showed relative strength.

• Weakest sectors: Utilities, real estate, private credit–linked stocks lagged.

• Small caps: Russell 2000 held flat with minimal net change, indicating modest participation.

Market Drivers This Week (02/23/26 – 02/27/26)

• Mon, Feb 23 – Fed Waller Speech & Factory Orders
  • Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaks — any comments on rate outlook or inflation will be watched closely by markets.
  Mon, Feb 23 – Early Earnings Kickoff
  • Companies like Dominion Energy (D), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM), Freshpet (FRPT), GeneDx (WGS) and others report ahead of the open — early sentiment tone-setter for the week.

• Tue, Feb 24 – Home Price & Confidence Data
  • S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and Consumer Confidence releases give clues on housing strength and consumer resilience — important drivers for financials and consumer stocks.

• Wed, Feb 25 – Major Earnings Day
  • A heavy slate of corporate earnings hits tape including consumer, tech, and enterprise names — will influence sector rotation and overall sentiment.

• Thu, Feb 26 – Durable Goods Orders
  • Durable goods orders gauge business investment and demand; surprises often impact industrials, materials, and manufacturing stocks.

• Fri, Feb 27 – PPI & Chicago PMI
  • Producer Price Index (PPI) and Chicago PMI on Friday track inflation pressures at the wholesale level and regional manufacturing conditions — market catalysts heading into March.

• Ongoing Earnings Momentum
  • Enterprise tech/software (e.g., CRM, SNOW, WDAY) and consumer/retail earnings will continue to drive sector leadership and rotation throughout the week.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at Fear 43

The Quant 30 and Quant Weekly Model Portfolios closed the week at all-time highs for the second week in a row.

Note: Choose between free and paid subscription levels. Paid subscribers enjoy instant access to weekly Portfolio updates upon release. Free subscribers access identical content, with Portfolio updates published after a two-week waiting period. Want timely access to the new Adds/Removes? Click here.

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly

Any newly added stock is being released to Paid Subscribers today. Below are the updates from two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to significantly outperform its benchmark, 42% versus 16%.

No Adds to the Portfolio this week

Add (02/06/26) : None

Outperformers: CDE (Coeur Mining) up over 70%, MU (Micron Technology) up over 170%, VISN (Vistance Networks) up over +140%

Click here for the Quant Alpha Weekly details

Model Portfolio Quant 30

This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 40% to 16%.

No Adds for this update.

Add (02/06/26) : None

Remove (02/06/26) : None

Outperformers: MU (Micron Technology) up over 250%, GFI (Gold Fields) up over 120%, LITE (Lumentum Holdings) up over 170% and KGC (Kinross Gold) is up over 110%.

Click here for the Quant 30 details

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy

The portfolio now has around 19 stocks in it. It is up over +270% since it began in 2023. Celestica achieves a 11 bagger performance.

Remove (02/06/26): None

Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over 500%, PSIX (Power Solutions)up over 300%, STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over 600%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over 900% and CLS (Celestica) is up over 1100%

Click here for the Quant Alpha’s – Legacy details

Performance to 02-20-2026

Click here for the Live Quant scorecard

The Quant Alpha Weekly Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. Up over 42% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant 30 Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. It is up 40% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant Alpha’s – Legacy Portfolio maintained its over 270% return since April 2023, in a classic Position Trading Portfolio implementation.

What would be the impact to the US economy if the Strait of Hormuz was closed for one week?

Energy & Oil Markets

• Oil prices would likely spike sharply (potentially $10–$25+ per barrel in days).

• Roughly 20% of global oil supply passes through Hormuz — markets would price in supply risk immediately.

• U.S. gasoline prices would jump, likely within days due to futures markets reacting first.

• Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases could be considered to stabilize prices.

Inflation Impact

• Short-term inflation bump, especially in energy, transportation, and logistics.

• CPI expectations would rise, even if the disruption lasts only one week.

• Could temporarily complicate Federal Reserve rate-cut timing.

Stock Market Reaction

• Initial sell-off in equities, particularly:

  • Airlines

  • Transportation

  • Consumer discretionary

  • Rate-sensitive growth stocks

• Energy stocks likely surge (oil producers, refiners, services).

• Defensive sectors (utilities, staples) may outperform.

Interest Rates & Dollar

• Treasury yields could initially fall on safe-haven buying.

• U.S. dollar likely strengthens vs. risk currencies.

• If oil spike persists, inflation fears could push longer-term yields back up.

Supply Chain & Trade

• Short-term disruptions to global shipping routes.

• Higher freight and insurance costs.

• Limited direct U.S. import dependency vs Europe/Asia, but global ripple effects would be felt.

Broader Economic Growth

• One-week closure alone likely does NOT cause recession.

• If resolved quickly, impact would mostly be:

  • Sentiment shock

  • Temporary energy-driven price spike

• Extended closure (multiple weeks) would materially slow global growth.

Geopolitical & Military Risk Premium

• Risk premium added to oil for months afterward.

• Defense stocks could rally.

• Markets would watch for escalation in the Persian Gulf region.

Bottom Line

One week = market shock, energy spike, volatility.
Multiple weeks = inflation surge, growth slowdown, potential recession risk.

Website Investment Educational Blog Posts –

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated. Disclaimer

• Quant 30 – Up over 35% since June

• Quant Weekly – Up over 38% since June

• Legacy – Up over 270% since April 2023

All Quant Portfolios shine as the market drops on AI related sector rotation.

USA Stock market last week 02/13/26

• S&P 500 closed around 6,836.17, down about -1.4% on the week.

• Nasdaq fell roughly -2.1% on the week.

• Dow fell about -1.2% over the week.

• Russell 2000 was down roughly -0.9% for the week.

Takeaways

• Market trend: Mild negative performance across major indexes for the week.

• Weakest sectors: Technology, software, and AI-linked names — hit by sector rotation and disruption concerns.

• Relatively stronger areas: Financial/exchange stocks and certain defensive/value sectors showed relative resilience.

• Small caps: Russell 2000 had a smaller decline, suggesting some support for smaller names despite broader weakness.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at Fear 36.

Market Drivers This Week (02/16/26 – 02/20/26)

• Tue, Feb 17 – Retail Sales Report

• Reflects consumer spending trends; strong sales can support cyclicals and risk assets.

• Wed, Feb 18 – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

• Signals manufacturing strength; influences cyclical sectors and small caps.

• Thu, Feb 19 – Housing Starts / Building Permits

• Key indicator of housing demand and broader economic momentum.

• Thu, Feb 19 – Fed Officials Speaking

• Any shifts in commentary on inflation, rate expectations, or future guidance could move markets.

• Fri, Feb 20 – Leading Economic Indicators (LEI)

• A favorite for gauging near-term economic direction; impacts market sentiment and positioning.

Note: Choose between free and paid subscription levels. Paid subscribers enjoy instant access to weekly Portfolio updates upon release. Free subscribers access identical content, with Portfolio updates published after a two-week waiting period. Want timely access to the new Adds/Removes? Click here.

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly

Any newly added stock is being released to Paid Subscribers today. Below are the updates from two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to significantly outperform its benchmark, 38% versus 16%.

One Add to the Portfolio this week

Add (01/30/26) : ENVA (Enova International)

Outperformers: CDE (Coeur Mining) up over 50%, MU (Micron Technology) up over 160%, VISN (Vistance Networks) up over +140%

Click here for the Quant Alpha Weekly details

Model Portfolio Quant 30

This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 35% to 16%.

No Adds for this update.

Add (01/30/26) : None

Remove (01/30/26) : None

Outperformers: MU (Micron Technology) up over 230%, GFI (Gold Fields) up over 120% and KGC (Kinross Gold) is up over 110%.

Click here for the Quant 30 details

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy

The portfolio now has around 19 stocks in it. It is up over +270% since it began in 2023. Celestica achieves a 10 bagger performance.

Remove (01/30/26): None

Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over 400%, PSIX (Power Solutions)up over 400%, STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over 600%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over 900% and CLS (Celestica) is up over 1000%

Click here for the Quant Alpha’s – Legacy details

Performance to 02-13-2026

Click here for the Live Quant scorecard

The Quant Alpha Weekly Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. Up over 38% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant 30 Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. It is up 35% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant Alpha’s – Legacy Portfolio maintained its over 270% return since April 2023, in a classic Position Trading Portfolio implementation.

Website Investment Educational Blog Posts –

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated. Disclaimer

• Quant 30 – Up over 32% since June

• Quant Weekly – Up over 37% since June

• Legacy – Up over 270% since April 2023

• Education – How does the USA software industry perform in the stock market over time?

USA Stock market last week 02/06/26

• S&P 500: Essentially flat to slightly down (~-0.1% on the week).

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Up comfortably, gaining ~+2.5% and closing above 50,000 for the first time.

• Nasdaq Composite: Down on the week, approximately -1.8% overall.

• Russell 2000 (small-cap index): Up about +2.2% for the week.

Context: Despite steep mid-week selling—especially in technology—indexes rebounded strongly on Friday, with broad gains led by cyclical and tech names.

Industry & Sector Trends (Week of Feb 2–6, 2026)

Strongest Performing Segments

• Industrial & Cyclicals: Led gains as economically sensitive stocks (like heavy equipment and financials) rallied late in the period, contributing to the Dow’s advance.

• Technology (rebound Friday): Major chipmakers and tech leaders rallied sharply on Friday, supporting upside—even though overall the Nasdaq finished lower for the week.

• Small Caps: Russell 2000’s weekly gain suggests renewed risk appetite for smaller, more cyclical equities.

• Travel & Consumer Service Sectors: Airline stocks and other discretionary names showed gains associated with improved sentiment.

Weakest Performing Segments

• Technology (mid-week pressure): Heavy early and mid-week selling in tech and AI-linked stocks dragged the Nasdaq and related sectors lower before the Friday rebound.

• Consumer Discretionary (headwinds mid-week): Some retail and discretionary names underperformed amid risk-off sentiment earlier in the week.

• Defensive/Profitability Concerns: Select large cap growth names faced profit-margin pressure tied to expected capital expenditures (e.g., some software stocks earlier in the week).

The Quant 30 and Quant Alpha’s Legacy Model Portfolios closed the week at all-time highs.

Note: Choose between free and paid subscription levels. Paid subscribers enjoy instant access to weekly Portfolio updates upon release. Free subscribers access identical content, with Portfolio updates published after a two-week waiting period. Want timely access to the new Adds/Removes? Click here.

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly

Any newly added stock is being released to Paid Subscribers today. Below are the updates from two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to significantly outperform its benchmark, 37% versus 15%.”

No Adds to the Portfolio this week

Add (01/23/26) : NONE

Outperformers: CDE (Coeur Mining) up over 50%, MU (Micron Technology) up over 150%, VISN (Vistance Networks) up over +140%

Click here for the Quant Alpha Weekly details

Model Portfolio Quant 30

This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 32% to 15%.

One new Add for this update.

Add (01/23/26) : NUTX (Nutex Health)

Remove (01/23/26) : IMPP (Imperial Petroleum)

Outperformers: MU (Micron Technology) up over 220%, GFI (Gold Fields) up over 120% and KGC (Kinross Gold) is up over 100%.

Click here for the Quant 30 details

Quant 30 Performance – Weekly Summary

Simple sector breakdown (equal‑weight)

Semiconductors / tech hardware (TSM, MU, etc.): Net positive; TSM and MU alone probably account for more than half of the week’s gain for the basket.

Gold and precious‑metals miners (AU, GFI, etc.): Mild to solid positive; gold names generally trended up on the week.

Cyclicals, energy, and industrials (CCL, PARR, etc.): Mixed to slightly negative as a group, dampening the strong moves in semis and miners.​

Healthcare / biotech and misc. growth (GH, OWLT, etc.): Wide dispersion; GH and a few others had good weeks, but recent volatility and pullbacks in high‑beta names like W likely made this sleeve net flat to slightly negative.

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy

The portfolio now has around 19 stocks in it. It is up over +270% since it began in 2023. Celestica achieves a 12 bagger performance.

Remove (01/23/26): None

Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over 400%, PSIX (Power Solutions) up over 300%, STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over 500%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over 900% and CLS (Celestica) is up over 1200%

Click here for the Quant Alpha’s – Legacy details

Performance to 02-06-2026

Click here for the Live Quant scorecard

The Quant Alpha Weekly Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. Up over 37% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant 30 Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. It is up 32% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant Alpha’s – Legacy Portfolio maintained its over 270% return since April 2023, in a classic Position Trading Portfolio implementation.

How does the USA software industry perform in the stock market over time?

1. Long-Term Outperformance of Tech & Software

• Tech leadership since the Global Financial Crisis: U.S. technology stocks — including major software companies — have outperformed the broader market over the past decade-plus. For example, the overall tech sector contributed heavily to the S&P 500’s strong long-term returns since 2009.

• Large software-oriented companies like Microsoft have posted very strong returns (e.g., ~26–27% annualized over ~10 years), illustrating how core software and cloud/AI players have driven gains.

Why this happened

• Shift to subscription/SaaS models — recurring revenue streams boosted valuations relative to traditional software sales.

• Cloud computing growth drove demand for enterprise software platforms.

• AI and digital transformation narratives have increasingly influenced investor expectations.

2. Booms and Busts: Cycles Matter

Dot-com Era & Recovery

• The dot-com crash (2000–2002) deeply hit tech/software stocks, and the NASDAQ took ~15 years to recover to its prior peak.

• After that, as software matured and delivered real earnings, valuations climbed steadily through the 2010s.

2010s – Mid-2020s

• Software companies helped fuel the tech boom, especially with the rise of cloud services and later AI.

• However, not all software stocks performed equally. Many large enterprise SaaS names saw significant pullbacks when growth slowed or valuations compressed.

Recent Trends (2024–2026)

• While mega-cap software and AI-linked stocks (like Microsoft) have generally delivered positive returns, others have struggled; some legacy or smaller SaaS names fell sharply as investor sentiment shifted.

• A key factor in 2025–2026 has been AI disruption fears — with some traditional software valuations under pressure as markets reassess how AI changes growth prospects.

3. Industry-Wide Metrics & Forecasts

Performance Metrics

• U.S. software stocks’ short-term performance has been mixed in recent years, with some indexes showing modest gains but many individual stocks lagging due to valuation re-rating and competitive pressures.

Growth Expectations

• Analysts see continued earnings growth in software, albeit at slightly lower rates than some recent record levels.

4. What This Means for Investors

Key historical takeaways:

• Long-term growth: U.S. software has been a core driver of stock market returns compared to the broader market over decades.

• Volatility and rotation: Periods of strong performance alternate with correction phases — often tied to macro conditions, growth expectations, or technological shifts (internet → cloud → AI).

• Differentiation matters: Larger, diversified software/cloud/AI firms have historically outperformed many smaller or niche players.

Risks to watch:

• Market sentiment around transformative tech (e.g., AI) can compress valuations rapidly.

• Competition and pricing pressures in software markets — especially with new AI tools — can erode future revenue expectations.

Eight major, U.S‑listed software leaders and their approximate 5‑year price returns

• Microsoft (MSFT): roughly +200% to +250% over 5 years, powered by cloud (Azure), Office 365 and AI‑related growth.

• Oracle (ORCL): roughly +150% to +200%, reflecting its successful pivot into cloud infrastructure and applications.

• Adobe (ADBE): roughly +120% to +170%, driven by Creative Cloud and Digital Experience subscription growth.

• Salesforce (CRM): roughly +80% to +130%, as it expanded core CRM, analytics, and Slack‑related offerings.

• ServiceNow (NOW): roughly +150% to +220%, supported by very strong subscription growth and high net retention.

• Intuit (INTU): roughly +140% to +200%, helped by TurboTax, QuickBooks, and the Mailchimp acquisition.

• Palo Alto Networks (PANW): roughly +180% to +260%, reflecting strong demand for next‑gen cybersecurity platforms.

• CrowdStrike (CRWD): roughly +200% to +300%, driven by rapid ARR growth in endpoint and cloud security.

Website Investment Educational Blog Posts –

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated. Disclaimer

• Quant 30 – Up over 27% since June

• Quant Weekly – Up over 38% since June

• Legacy – Up over 260% since April 2023

• Education – Is AI a Bubble? – memo from Howard Marks, Dec. 9 2025

USA stock market summary for last week

Index Performance: Jan. 26 – Jan. 30, 2026

Weekly total moves (approx):

• S&P 500: +0.3% for the week to ~6,939 points.

• Nasdaq Composite: down ~0.2%.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: down ~0.4%.

• Russell 2000: down ~2.1%.

Takeaway (Week at a Glance)

• Large-cap indexes held up better overall (S&P 500 slightly positive), but small caps weakened most sharply.

• Tech stocks lost ground, contributing to Nasdaq’s weekly decline.

• Defensive and stable sectors outperformed amid macro uncertainty, while materials and commodity-linked sectors fell sharply.

The Quant Alpha Weekly and Quant 30 portfolios closed at all-time monthly highs.

Note: This site now offers both a free and a paid subscription. Paid subscribers receive weekly Portfolio updates as soon as they’re released. Free subscribers still get full content, but Portfolio updates will be posted with at least a two-week delay. Want timely access to the new Adds/Removes? Click here.

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly

The newly Added stock, if any, is being released to the Paid Subscribers today. Shown below are the updates from two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 36% to 12%.

No Adds to the Portfolio this week

Add (01/16/26) : None

Outperformers: CDE (Coeur Mining) up over 40%, MU (Micron Technology) up over 160%, VISN (Vistance Networks) up over +120%

Click here for the Quant Alpha Weekly details

Quant Weekly Performance – Weekly Summary

• Mining & tech sectors were the biggest drag on the portfolio this week.

• Energy and healthcare provided relative support, with PARR and NUTX showing upside movement.

• Most financials and industrial names were flat to slightly down in the latest session, suggesting broader market caution.

Model Portfolio Quant 30

This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 27% to 12%.

Three new Adds and three Removals for this update.

Add (01/16/26) : CIEN (Ciena Corp), VISN (Vistance Networks), LASR (nLIGHT)

Remove (01/16/26) : UBER, STX (Seagate Technology), BAC (Bank of America)

Outperformers: MU (Micron Technology) up over 240%, GFI (Gold Fields) up over 100% and KGC (Kinross Gold) is up over 90%.

Click here for the Quant 30 details

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy

The portfolio now has around 19 stocks in it. It is up over +260% since it began in 2023. Celestica achieves a 11 bagger performance.

Remove (01/16/26): None

Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over 400%, WGS (GeneDx Holdings) up over 200%, STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over 500%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over 700% and CLS (Celestica) is up over 1100%

Click here for the Quant Alpha’s – Legacy details

Performance to 01-30-2026

Click here for the Live Quant scorecard

The Quant Alpha Weekly Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. Up over 36% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant 30 Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. With new earnings reports coming out, the pace of turnover is increasing. It is up 27% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant Alpha’s – Legacy Portfolio maintained its over 260% return since April 2023, in a classic Position Trading Portfolio implementation.

Is AI a Bubble? – summary of Howard Marks memo – 12/9/25

1. What a Bubble Really Is

Marks explains that a market bubble isn’t simply rising prices — it’s when investor psychology drives asset prices well above underlying intrinsic value, fueled by excessive optimism, FOMO (“fear of missing out”), and a belief that this time it’s different. Historical bubbles have followed a familiar pattern:

• A new idea or technology captures imagination

• Early investors profit

• Others rush in without rational valuation

• Prices detach from fundamentals

• The result is painful losses for many — though some winners may still emerge.

2. Is AI a Bubble?

Marks breaks the question into two parts:

• Company behavior: Some AI firms are investing aggressively without clear paths to profit.

• Investor behavior: Enthusiasm for AI has been massive, and much of recent stock-market gains have come from AI-linked stocks.

He does not definitively say AI is a bubble, but notes that today’s situation shares many characteristics of past bubbles. Memories of past crashes don’t prevent new ones, because excitement and visions of revolutionary change overwhelm prudence.

3. Good vs. Bad Bubbles

The memo introduces the idea that some bubbles — particularly those tied to transformative technologies — can have positive effects even if investors lose money. Two types are described:

• Mean-reversion bubbles: Pure financial fads that don’t change the world (e.g., the pre-2008 mortgage craze).

• Inflection bubbles: Driven by real technological change — like railroads or the internet — which can accelerate innovation and long-term progress despite short-term losses.

Marks argues that enthusiastic investment in new technologies can speed innovation by funneling capital into exploratory projects even if many fail.

4. Parallels with History

The memo draws on historical examples (internet, railroads, subprime-mortgage products) to highlight how newness and lack of historical experience make markets prone to over-optimism, driving prices far beyond what predictable earnings justify.

Marks also points out that valuations for current AI leaders are not obviously more extreme than during past bubbles (e.g., internet-era valuations), which complicates declaring today’s conditions a classic bubble.

5. Risks and Uncertainty

Marks emphasizes key uncertainties:

• Who will ultimately win in AI markets?

• How profitable will these technologies be, and when?

• How much capital will be wasted on ventures that don’t succeed?

Because the technology’s impact and timeline are unpredictable, many companies may be overvalued relative to their fundamentals, and some investors will suffer significant losses.

6. Practical Conclusion for Investors

Marks doesn’t say to fully avoid AI investments, nor does he insist it’s definitely a bubble. Instead, he suggests:

• A balanced approach: Neither all-in optimism nor complete avoidance.

• Prudence and selectivity: Recognize the potential for both transformational gains and wealth destruction.

He warns that bubbles can accelerate technological progress, but they also carry the risk of serious financial loss for those who join late or without proper risk assessment.

Bottom Line

• AI has characteristics of past bubbles — strong enthusiasm, rapid capital flows, and uncertain fundamentals — but whether today is objectively a bubble is impossible to say until later.

• The memo argues for cautious participation: understand risks, avoid blind enthusiasm, but don’t necessarily miss out on transformative advances.

Website Investment Educational Blog Posts –

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated. Disclaimer

• Quant 30 – Up over 32% since June

• Quant Weekly – Up over 47% since June

• Legacy – Up over 260% since April 2023

• Education – What is the January barometer in the USA stock market?

USA stock market results last week

• S&P 500: Finished the week down about 0.4%, extending recent volatility after mixed macro and earnings news.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Ended the week down around 0.5%, with tech and cyclical pressure outweighing mid-week gains.

• Nasdaq Composite: Slightly down roughly 0.1% for the week, as chip stock weakness offset gains in other growth names.

• Russell 2000: Small caps also slipped about 0.3%, even after earlier mid-week rebounds.

The Quant Weekly and Quant 30 portfolios closed last week at all-time highs. It was the second week in a row.

Note: This site now offers both a free and a paid subscription. Paid subscribers receive weekly Portfolio updates as soon as they’re released. Free subscribers still get full content, but Portfolio updates will be posted with at least a two-week delay. Want timely access to the new Adds/Removes? Click here.

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly

The newly Added stock, if any, is being released to the Paid Subscribers today. Shown below are the updates from two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 47% to 12%.

One Add to the Portfolio this week

Add (01/09/26) : GM (General Motors)

Outperformers: CDE (Coeur Mining) up over 80%, MU (Micron Technology) up over 150%, VISN (Vistance Networks) up over +120%

Click here for the Quant Alpha Weekly details

Quant Weekly Performance – Weekly Summary

Overall Takeaway

The portfolio had a mixed but relatively resilient week.

• Precious metals and gold miners provided stability and modest upside.

• Semiconductors and AI-linked names were mixed but generally held up.

• Small-cap, consumer, and specialty stocks saw more downside pressure amid choppy markets.

Model Portfolio Quant 30

This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 32% to 12%.

No new Adds for this update.

Add (01/09/26) : None

Remove (01/09/26) : None

Outperformers: MU (Micron Technology) up over 220%, GFI (Gold Fields) up over 110% and KGC (Kinross Gold) is up over 130%.

Click here for the Quant 30 details

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy

The portfolio now has around 19 stocks in it. It is up over +260% since it began in 2023. Celestica achieves a 11 bagger performance.

Remove (01/09/26): None

Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over 400%, WGS (GeneDx Holdings) up over 200%, STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over 400%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over 600% and CLS (Celestica) is up over 1100%

Click here for the Quant Alpha’s – Legacy details

Performance to 01-23-2026

Click here for the Live Quant scorecard

The Quant Alpha Weekly Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. Up over 47% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant 30 Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. With new earnings reports coming out, the pace of turnover is increasing. It is up 32% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant Alpha’s – Legacy Portfolio maintained its over 260% return since April 2023, in a classic Position Trading Portfolio implementation.

What is the January barometer in the USA stock market?

The January Barometer is a long-running market adage that says:

“As goes January, so goes the year.”

What it means

• The direction of the S&P 500 in January (up or down) is viewed as a signal for the full calendar year’s trend.

• A positive January suggests a higher probability of a positive year.

• A negative January is seen as a warning of weaker or more volatile markets.

• The idea is that early-year institutional positioning, fresh capital flows, and investor sentiment reveal how risk appetite is shaping up.

How accurate is it?

• Historically, the January Barometer has been correct about 70–75% of the time when predicting whether the year ends up or down.

• Its track record is stronger after positive Januaries than after negative ones.

• The indicator tends to work best as a trend confirmation tool, not a precise forecasting or timing signal.

Key limitations

• It does not predict the size of returns, only the direction.

• Major macro events (recessions, rate shocks, policy changes) can override it.

• Accuracy has been less consistent in recent decades.

Is the January Barometer positive right now?

Because the S&P 500 and other key indexes are showing gains in January, the January Barometer would currently be indicating a bullish signal for the potential trend of the full year. Positive January returns historically tend to correlate with a higher probability that the S&P 500 will end the year higher.

Bottom line

The January Barometer is a useful sentiment gauge, offering an early read on market tone, but it should be used alongside earnings trends, economic data, and broader market analysis—not as a standalone investment signal.

Website Investment Educational Blog Posts –

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated. Disclaimer

• Quant 30 – Up over 28% since June

• Quant Weekly – Up over 41% since June

• Legacy – Up over 260% since April 2023

• Education – When do investments in oil industry stocks have the best chance of profit?

USA Stock Market recap Last Week

• S&P 500: Finished the week modestly lower, declining about 0.4% as profit-taking and mixed earnings weighed on large caps.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Slightly down, falling around 0.3% on the week after choppy trading.

• Nasdaq Composite: Led the downside among major benchmarks with roughly a 0.7% weekly drop.

• Russell 2000: Stood out with a 2.0% gain, reflecting continued strength in small-cap stocks.

Investor Sentiment (CNN Fear & Greed Index):

• The CNN Fear & Greed Index remained in the Greed zone (around ~62/100) during this period, indicating bullish sentiment among investors despite the week’s mild pullback.

Overall, the U.S. equity market saw broad weakness in large-cap benchmarks for the week but continued outperformance in smaller stocks, with sentiment still tilted toward risk-taking as measured by the CNN Fear & Greed Index.

All three Quant Portfolios made all-time highs on a monthly comparison.

Note: This site now offers both a free and a paid subscription. Paid subscribers receive weekly Portfolio updates as soon as they’re released. Free subscribers still get full content, but Portfolio updates will be posted with at least a two-week delay. Want timely access to the new Adds/Removes? Click here.

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly

The newly Added stock, if any, is being released to the Paid Subscribers today. Shown below are the updates from two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 41% to 12%.

CommScope (COMM) completed its $10 Billion partial buyout this week and changed its name and symbol to Vistance Networks (VISN). A special dividend will be paid to shareholders by Vistance a couple of months in the future. It is expected to be around $10 a share.

No Adds to the Portfolio this week

Add (01/02/26) : None

Outperformers: CLS (Celestica) up over 50%, MU (Micron Technology) up over 130%, VISN (Vistance Networks) up over +130%

Click here for the Quant Alpha Weekly details

Model Portfolio Quant 30

This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 28% to 12%.

A short review of Gold Fields (GFI) one of the Quant 30 stocks is provided below.

No new Adds for this update.

Add (01/02/26) : None

Remove (01/02/26) : None

Outperformers: MU (Micron Technology) up over 190%, GFI (Gold Fields) up over 100% and CLS (Celestica) are up over 50%.

Click here for the Quant 30 details

What does Gold Fields (GFI) do?

Gold Fields Limited operates as a gold producer with reserves and resources in Australia, South Africa, Ghana, Peru, Chile, and Canada. It also explores for copper and silver deposits. Gold Fields Limited was founded in 1887 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.

Gold Fields (PROS)

• Strong Profitability Metrics: Gold Fields posts robust returns, with 35.19% ROE, 17.34% ROA, a 28.72% net margin, and a 54.83% EBITDA margin, highlighting strong efficiency and pricing power.

• Solid Balance Sheet Health: A 40.88% debt-to-equity ratio and 4.28 Altman Z-Score reflect a conservative balance sheet and low financial risk.

• Strategic Growth Pipeline: Nineteen active exploration projects across four continents, alongside the Salares Norte ramp-up and the Gold Road Resources acquisition, expand production and strengthen exposure to Tier-1 Australia.

• Shareholder-Friendly Capital Allocation: A record interim dividend, up 133% year over year and equal to 34% of normalized earnings, underscores confidence in cash flow sustainability.

• Smart Expansion Strategy: Disciplined growth via joint ventures and equity stakes in high-margin, low-capex projects reduces acquisition risk while preserving upside.

Gold Fields (CONS)

• Jurisdictional Risk Exposure: Roughly half of production comes from non–Tier-1 regions, exposing operations to political, regulatory, and infrastructure risks.

• Gold Price Dependency: Earnings remain highly sensitive to gold prices, leaving margins vulnerable in a downturn.

• Valuation Concerns: Shares trade at a premium versus peers at ~16x forward EV/FCF, limiting upside and increasing correction risk if conditions weaken.

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy

The portfolio now has around 19 stocks in it. It is up over +260% since it began in 2023. Celestica achieves a 12 bagger performance.

Remove (01/02/26): None

Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over 400%, WGS (GeneDx Holdings) up over 200%, STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over 400%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over 600% and CLS (Celestica) is up over 1200%

Click here for the Quant Alpha’s – Legacy details

Performance to 01-16-2026

Click here for the Live Quant scorecard

The Quant Alpha Weekly Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. Up over 41% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant 30 Portfolio managed to close ahead of the benchmark once again. It is up 28% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant Alpha’s – Legacy Portfolio maintained its over 260% return since April 2023, in a classic Position Trading Portfolio implementation.

When do investments in oil industry stocks have the best chance of profit?

Best Phase: Early to Mid Economic Expansion

(Recovery → Early Growth)

This is generally when oil stocks have the highest probability of strong returns.

Why:

• Economic activity begins to recover → demand for fuel, transport, and petrochemicals rises.

• Oil demand increases before supply can fully adjust (new drilling takes time).

• Oil prices tend to rise faster than costs.

• Energy companies’ earnings and cash flow expand rapidly.

• Valuations are often still low because sentiment is recovering from the prior downturn.

Historically, oil stocks often lead the broader market early in expansions.

Secondary Sweet Spot: Late Recovery After an Oil Downturn

(Oil-specific cycle, not necessarily economic)

Oil stocks can also do very well before the broader economy looks strong, if:

• Oil prices have collapsed previously,

• Capital spending has been cut sharply,

• Supply tightens due to underinvestment.

This creates powerful rebounds even if GDP growth is only modest.

Less Favorable Phases

Late Expansion

• Demand is strong, but:

  • Oil prices may already be high,

  • Costs (labor, services) rise,

  • Governments may intervene (windfall taxes, SPR releases),

  • Margins can peak and then compress.

• Returns tend to be more volatile and less attractive.

Recession

• Demand destruction hits quickly.

• Oil prices often fall sharply.

• Energy stocks usually underperform, except for short-term trading rallies.

Inflationary Environments (Special Case)

Oil stocks often perform better than the market when:

• Inflation is rising,

• Energy prices are a major inflation driver,

• Investors seek real assets and cash-flow-heavy companies.

This often overlaps with early to mid expansion or supply shocks.

Practical Rule of Thumb

Oil stocks tend to offer the best risk–reward when:

• The economy is emerging from recession, and

• Oil prices are recovering from a trough, and

• Energy companies are still priced pessimistically.

Worst risk–reward is usually:

• When oil prices are very high,

• Headlines are euphoric,

• Capital spending is ramping aggressively.

Where are we in the economic cycle now?

Phase: Late Expansion / Early Deceleration

• Economic growth persists, but at a slower and more moderate pace than earlier in the expansion.

• Inflation is cooling, the labor market is softening, and monetary policy is neutral to easing — signals often seen as expansions nearing maturity.

• Recession is not yet confirmed, but risks of slowdown or stagnation have increased.

Top three Energy stocks in the Quant system.

• NGL – NGL Energy Partners LP Common Units

• NTOIY – Neste Oyj

• NBR – Nabors Industries Ltd.

Website Investment Educational Blog Posts –

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated. Disclaimer

• Quant 30 – Up over 24% since June

• Quant Weekly – Up over 40% since June

• Legacy – Up over 250% since April 2023

• Education – Main points of the book “1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History–and How It Shattered a Nation” by Alan Ross Sorkin

Major indexes climbed for the week — the S&P 500 rose about 1.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained roughly 2.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased nearly 1.9% by Friday’s close. The small-cap Russell 2000 outperformed, up around 4.6% for the week.

Record highs were reached — both the S&P 500 and the Dow set new closing records during the week, with the S&P topping its prior all-time high and the Dow continuing its strong start to 2026.

Positive jobs data helped sentiment — weaker-than-expected job additions combined with a lower unemployment rate boosted optimism that the Federal Reserve might hold rates steady, which supported stock gains.

Broad participation in the rally — gains were seen across market caps, with small caps notably outperforming, while technology and other sectors also contributed to the weekly advance.

The Quant Alpha Weekly and Quant 30 Portfolios both made all time highs, closing the week up 40% and 24% respectively.

Note: This site now offers both a free and a paid subscription. Paid subscribers receive weekly Portfolio updates as soon as they’re released. Free subscribers still get full content, but Portfolio updates will be posted with at least a two-week delay. Want timely access to the new Adds/Removes? Click here.

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly

The newly Added stock, if any, is being released to the Paid Subscribers today. Shown below are the updates from two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 40% to 11%.

No Adds to the Portfolio this week

Add (12/26/25) : None

Outperformers: CLS (Celestica) up over 50%, MU (Micron Technology) up over 100%, COMM (CommScope) up over +130%

Click here for the Quant Alpha Weekly details

Model Portfolio Quant 30

This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 24% to 11%.

One new Add and one Removal for this update.

Add (12/26/25) : OWLT (Owlet)

Remove (12/26/25) : AXIA (AXIA Energia)

Outperformers: MU (Micron Technology) up over 150%, GFI (Gold Fields) up over 80% and CLS (Celestica) are up over 50%.

Click here for the Quant 30 details

What does Owlet do?

Owlet, Inc. delivers digital parenting and infant health solutions in the U.S. and internationally. The company’s platform gives parents real-time health and sleep data through connected devices, including its Smart Sock and Dream Sock wearable monitors that track heart rate, oxygen levels, activity, and sleep. Owlet also offers BabySat for medically monitored infants, video monitoring through Owlet Cam, bundled monitoring systems, and the Owlet360 subscription for ongoing insights and analytics. Founded in 2012, Owlet is based in Lehi, Utah.

Pros for Owlet

• Strong Revenue Growth: Owlet is posting 24–28% YoY growth, beating and raising guidance. Q2 2025 revenue hit $26.1M (+26% YoY), with full-year outlook lifted to $97–100M.

• FDA Issues Behind It: Regulatory clearance is back in place, revenue is above prior highs, and credibility with customers and partners is restored.

• Higher-Margin Mix: The Owlet 360 subscription is shifting the model toward recurring, higher-margin platform revenue.

• Multiple Growth Catalysts: Expansion via BabySat partnerships, a new DME deal with 1 Natural Way, telehealth pilots, and early-stage international growth.

• Attractive Valuation: Shares trade at a low sales multiple for the growth rate, with EBITDA profitability signaling a turnaround.

Cons for Owlet

• Still Losing Money: Despite EBITDA-positive results, net losses persist as SG&A remains elevated during scaling.

• Macro & Tariff Risk: Tariffs and supply-chain pressures could squeeze margins, especially internationally.

• Regulatory & Execution Risk: Past FDA issues linger as a risk, along with customer concentration and potential dilution as growth investments continue.

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy

The portfolio now has around 19 stocks in it. It is up over +250% since it began in 2023. Celestica achieves a 11 bagger performance.

Remove (12/26/25): None

Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over 300%, WGS (GeneDx Holdings) up over 300%, STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over 400%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over 500% and CLS (Celestica) is up over 1100%

Click here for the Quant Alpha’s – Legacy details

Performance to 01-09-2026

Click here for the Live Quant scorecard

The Quant Alpha Weekly Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. Up over 40% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant 30 Portfolio managed to close ahead of the benchmark once again. It is up 24% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant Alpha’s – Legacy Portfolio maintained its over 250% return since April 2023, in a classic Position Trading Portfolio implementation.

Highlights of the book “1929” by Sorkin.

• The book examines how the 1929 stock market crash transformed a market correction into the Great Depression.

• Sorkin argues the crash was not inevitable but the result of human decisions, policy errors, and excess speculation.

• The 1920s bull market was fueled by easy credit, margin buying, and public enthusiasm for stocks.

• Ordinary Americans became speculators, often buying stocks with as little as 10% down.

• Financial institutions and brokers aggressively promoted leverage, amplifying risk across the system.

• The Federal Reserve sent mixed signals, tightening too late and without clear communication.

• Early warnings from economists and insiders were largely ignored amid euphoria.

• The initial market break in October 1929 was disorderly but not catastrophic on its own.

• Panic was worsened by poor communication, rumors, and lack of coordinated response.

• Bank failures accelerated as depositors lost confidence, turning a market crash into a financial crisis.

• The gold standard constrained policymakers, limiting their ability to inject liquidity.

• Political leaders underestimated the severity of the downturn and responded too cautiously.

• Confidence collapsed faster than fundamentals, deepening the economic contraction.

• The crash exposed weaknesses in regulation, central banking, and corporate transparency.

• Sorkin concludes that mismanagement after the crash, more than the crash itself, made the Depression “great.”

Direct parallels: 1929 → 2008 → 2020 → today

1929

• Leverage + weak regulation

• Policy delay and mixed signals

• Liquidity collapse → bank failures → economic spiral

2008

• Housing leverage replaced stock leverage

• Faster response, but still behind the curve

• Depression avoided only through massive intervention

2020

• Shock was external, not financial (COVID)

• Immediate, overwhelming policy response

• Confidence preserved → fastest recovery on record

Today

• Leverage has migrated to private credit, derivatives, and duration risk

• Policy risk is asymmetric:

  • Tighten too long → accident

  • Ease too fast → inflation resurgence

• The system is more liquid, but confidence remains fragile

Bottom-line

• Crashes are inevitable. Depressions are optional.

• Liquidity + confidence determine outcomes, not valuations alone.

• Markets don’t fail catastrophically — policy responses do.

• The biggest risk isn’t the drawdown you see — it’s the second-order effects you don’t.

Website Investment Educational Blog Posts –

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated. Disclaimer

• Quant 30 – Up over 19% since June

• Quant Weekly – Up over 28% since June

• Legacy – Up over 250% since April 2023

• Education – Do Small Cap stocks outperform in January?

U.S. equities opened 2026 on solid footing, with major indexes posting gains in the first trading session of the year. The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.2% on January 2, building on the strong momentum carried over from 2025.

Measured Technical Backdrop: Just 12 S&P 500 constituents are currently in extreme technical territory—4 overbought and 8 oversold—pointing to a relatively balanced market setup rather than stretched conditions.

The Fear and Greed Index starts the year off in the Neutral quadrant.

Note: This site now offers both a free and a paid subscription. Paid subscribers receive weekly Portfolio updates as soon as they’re released. Free subscribers still get full content, but Portfolio updates will be posted with at least a two-week delay. Want timely access to the new Adds/Removes? Click here.

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly

The newly Added stock, if any, is being released to the Paid Subscribers today. Shown below is the stock Added two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 28% to 9%.

One Add was made to the Weekly portfolio for this update.

Add (12/19/25) : RY (Royal Bank of Canada)

Outperformers: CLS (Celestica) up over 50%, MU (Micron Technology) up over 100%, COMM (CommScope) up over +130%

Click here for the Quant Alpha Weekly details

What does Royal Bank of Canada do?

Royal Bank of Canada is a global financial heavyweight with businesses across personal and commercial banking, wealth management, insurance, and capital markets. It does everything from deposits and loans to investing, insurance, and institutional trading for individuals, companies, and governments worldwide. Founded in 1864, RBC is headquartered in Toronto.

Key Strengths

• Record numbers: RY crushed fiscal ’25—net income up 25% to $20.4B, one of the strongest years in the bank’s history.

• Capital muscle: CET1 at 13.5% gives them plenty of cushion and flexibility if the economy gets bumpy.

• High-value momentum: Wealth Management and Capital Markets are firing, driving growth beyond plain-vanilla banking.

• Shareholder-friendly: Dividend bumped 6% and management’s shooting for 17%+ ROE in FY ’26—confidence is loud and clear.

• Market leader: Canada’s biggest bank, massive scale, global footprint, and a deep client base keep the moat wide.

Key Weaknesses

• Pricey stock: Trading at a big premium—about 39% above peers—which caps upside with revenue growth only around 5%.

• Credit pressure: Rising credit costs and mortgage renewals could weigh as past tailwinds start to fade.

• Limited runway: With growth already priced in, the risk-reward looks tight at these levels.

Model Portfolio Quant 30

This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 19% to 9%.

No new Adds for this update.

Add (12/19/25) : STX (Seagate Technology)

Remove (12/19/25) : TPC (Tutor Perini)

Outperformers: MU (Micron Technology) up over 150%, GFI (Gold Fields) up over 80% and CLS (Celestica) are up over 50%.

Click here for the Quant 30 details

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy

The portfolio now has around 19 stocks in it. It is up over +250% since it began in 2023. Celestica achieves a 11 bagger performance.

Remove (12/19/25): None

Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over 300%, WGS (GeneDx Holdings) up over 300%, STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over 400%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over 500% and CLS (Celestica) is up over 1100%

Click here for the Quant Alpha’s – Legacy details

Performance to 01-02-2026

Click here for the Live Quant scorecard

The Quant Alpha Weekly Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. Up over 28% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant 30 Portfolio managed to close ahead of the benchmark once again. It is up 19% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant Alpha’s – Legacy Portfolio maintained its over 250% return since April 2023, in a classic Position Trading Portfolio implementation.

Do Small Cap stocks outperform in January?

The idea that stocks—especially small caps—tend to outperform in January due to tax-loss selling in December and reinvestment in the new year.

How accurate it actually is

• Historically:

  • Real and measurable before the 1990s, strongest in small-cap stocks.

• Modern era (last ~25 years):

  • Inconsistent and weak

  • January is positive about 60–65% of the time, only slightly better than a coin flip.

• Returns:

  • Any excess return is usually small (often <1%)

  • Easily erased by volatility, taxes, or transaction costs.

Where it still shows up (sometimes)

• Small-cap stocks more than large caps

• After down years, when tax-loss selling is heavier

• Mostly in the first 5–10 trading days, not the full month

Why it faded

• Widely known → arbitraged away

• Institutional and algorithmic trading dominate markets

• Less retail tax-driven behavior

• Global capital flows dilute calendar effects

Bottom line

• The January Effect is not reliable enough to trade on its own

• Today it’s more a curiosity than an edge

• At best, it’s a minor tailwind, useful only when it aligns with:

  • Valuation

  • Liquidity

  • Trend

  • Broader economic cycle

Website Investment Educational Blog Posts –

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated. Disclaimer

• Quant 30 – Up over 21% since June

• Quant Weekly – Up over 33% since June

• Legacy – Up over 250% since April 2023

• Education – How real is the Santa Claus rally?

This last week ended with the CNN Fear and Greed Index edging into the Greed area. The Quant Weekly and 30 portfolios closed at all-time highs. The demand for high momentum stocks is slowly coming back to life.

Note: The introductory price of a yearly paid subscription will be increasing on January 1, 2026. Subscribing before that date will lock in the current lower price.

Note: This site now offers both a free and a paid subscription. Paid subscribers receive weekly Portfolio updates as soon as they’re released. Free subscribers still get full content, but Portfolio updates will be posted with at least a two-week delay. Want timely access to the new Adds/Removes? Click here.

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly

The newly Added stock, if any, is being released to the Paid Subscribers today. Shown below is the stock Added two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 33% to 8%.

No Adds were made to the Weekly portfolio for this update.

Add (12/12/25) : None

Outperformers: CLS (Celestica) up over 40%, MU (Micron Technology) up over 80%, COMM (CommScope) up over +130%

Click here for the Quant Alpha Weekly details

CommScope review:

CommScope (COMM), the Quant Weekly portfolio #1 stock has reshaped its profile after selling its $10.5B CCS unit to Amphenol.

5 things to like about CommScope:

• Debt Wipeout: CCS proceeds nearly erase net debt, flipping COMM from heavily leveraged to cash-rich.

• Margin Breakout: Q3 2025 EBITDA margins hit a record 24.7%; 2025 EBITDA guided to $350–375M, with ANS and Ruckus sales up 49% YoY.

• Secular Tailwinds: AI data center cabling, DOCSIS 4.0 upgrades, and the WiFi 7 cycle support long-term growth.

• Big Special Dividend: Management plans a sizable payout; estimates point to roughly $8.20 per share in excess cash.

• Compelling Valuation: Shares trade at ~9x forward EBITDA with ~90% EBITDA growth, a sub-1x PEG.

3 concerns about CommScope:

• Cyclicality Risk: Ruckus and ANS showed sequential declines in Q3, signaling potential earnings volatility.

• Smaller-Scale Execution: Post-sale revenue drops to ~$2B; management must prove margins and growth are sustainable at reduced scale.

• Concentration & Tech Risk: Heavy exposure to customers like Comcast, risk of cable operators favoring fiber over DOCSIS, and sensitivity to any slowdown in AI capex.

Model Portfolio Quant 30

This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 21% to 8%.

No new Adds for this update.

Add (12/12/25) : None

Remove (12/12/25) : None

Outperformers: MU (Micron Technology) up over 130%, GFI (Gold Fields) up over 90% and CLS (Celestica) are up over 50%.

Click here for the Quant 30 details

Micron Technology Review:

Micron Technology is our top performing stock in Quant 30 and recently has issued new earnings. Micron Technology (MU) offers strong upside, with a few real risks to watch.

5 things to like about Micron:

• Standout Profitability: MU posts a 28% net margin, 53% EBITDA margin, and 23% ROE—well above semiconductor averages.

• AI-Fueled Growth: Q1 FY2026 revenue jumped 57% YoY to $13.6B, powered by surging HBM demand. EPS rose nearly 58% sequentially, showing major operating leverage.

• HBM Leadership: HBM production is fully booked through 2026, running at a $6B+ annual pace. Micron leads with 1-gamma DRAM and an HBM4 launch expected in H1 2026.

• Margin Expansion: Gross margins climbed from 46% to 57% in Q1, with management guiding toward ~68% in Q2 2026 on tight supply and strong pricing.

• Strong Balance Sheet: An Altman Z-Score of 5.18 signals low risk, with solid ROA, modest leverage, and record free cash flow.

3 concerns about Micron:

• Capacity Bottlenecks: HBM is sold out through 2026, and new fabs in Idaho and Singapore won’t add capacity until 2027–2028, capping near-term upside.

• Cycle Timing Risk: New supply may arrive near a memory cycle peak, raising the risk of margin pressure if AI demand cools.

• Valuation Premium: MU trades at a ~38% P/B premium to peers versus a 14% historical norm, while the stock remains range-bound relative to the S&P 500.

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy

The portfolio now has around 19 stocks in it. It is up over +250% since it began in 2023. Celestica achieves a 11 bagger performance. FOA received a hard Sell this week from the Quant system so it is being Removed from the Portfolio.

Remove (12/12/25): FOA (Finance of America)

Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over 300%, WGS (GeneDx Holdings) up over 300%, STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over 400%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over 500% and CLS (Celestica) is up over 1100%

Click here for the Quant Alpha’s – Legacy details

Performance to 12-26-2025

Click here for the Live Quant scorecard

The Quant Alpha Weekly Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. Up over 33% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant 30 Portfolio managed to close ahead of the benchmark once again. It is up 21% since it began on June 27, 2025.

The Quant Alpha’s – Legacy Portfolio maintained its over 250% return since April 2023, in a classic Position Trading Portfolio implementation.

How real is the Santa Claus Rally?

This covers the classic window: last 5 trading days of December + first 2 days of January (the “Santa Rally” period). According to historical S&P 500 holiday-season performance data:

• 2020–2021: +~3.03% — strong positive result.

• 2021–2022: +~1.12% — modest gain.

• 2022–2023: −~1.97% — a significant downturn.

• 2023–2024: +~0.44% — small positive.

• 2024–2025: −~0.40% — weak/negative return.
  (Source: Trade-Ideas analysis of Santa Claus Rally returns over the past five periods.) Trade Ideas

What That Means

• Mixed results lately: Out of the last five Santa Rally periods, 3 were positive and 2 were negative — not a sure thing. Trade Ideas

• No guarantee: Seasonal patterns historically lean positive — the S&P 500 has risen in this period about 76–79% of years since the 1950s — but recent years show that macro conditions can override the seasonal effect

• Returns vary a lot: Even when positive, the gains in recent years have been modest compared with long-term averages — the historical average is around 1.3% over this seven-day stretch.

Bottom Line

The Santa Claus rally is a historical tendency, not a law. It’s shown up most years on average, but over the last 5 years the pattern has been patchy, with both gains and losses in the S&P 500’s holiday window. That means while Santa can show up, he doesn’t always deliver the goods.

Website Investment Educational Blog Posts –

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated. Disclaimer