• What does the company do?

• Why Some Investors Are Bullish

• What Bears Are Worried About

• Why the Quants like this stock

• My View

What does the company do?

Bank of America Corporation provides a broad range of financial products and services to consumers, businesses, institutional investors, corporations, and governments worldwide. It operates through four segments: Consumer Banking, Global Wealth & Investment Management, Global Banking, and Global Markets.

Its services include deposit and lending products, credit and debit cards, mortgages, wealth and investment management, commercial lending, treasury services, investment banking, securities trading, and risk-management solutions. Founded in 1784 and headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, Bank of America is one of the largest financial institutions in the United States.

Why Some Investors Are Bullish

• Strong Q2 2026 earnings — Bank of America reported $31.6 billion in revenue, up 15% year over year, while net income increased 27% to $9.1 billion and diluted EPS rose 34% to $1.21.

• Strong investment banking and trading momentum — Investment banking fees increased 50% to $2.1 billion, while sales and trading revenue rose 33% to $7.1 billion. Trading revenue has now increased for 17 consecutive quarters, highlighting strong capital-markets activity.

• Improving efficiency and profitability — Operating leverage reached 6.6%, the efficiency ratio improved to 59%, and return on tangible common equity reached 17.0%. Net interest income increased 9% to $16.0 billion, while average loans and leases grew 8% to $1.22 trillion.

• Strong capital and shareholder returns — BAC ended the quarter with $202 billion of CET1 capital and an 11.2% CET1 ratio, well above its regulatory minimum. The bank returned $8 billion to shareholders, including $2 billion in dividends and $6 billion in share repurchases.

• Attractive profitability with a reasonable valuation — BAC’s 17% ROTCE and double-digit earnings growth provide a solid fundamental backdrop, while its valuation remains reasonable relative to its profitability and growth prospects. I would focus more on earnings power, tangible book value and ROTCE than on a specific P/E figure, since the stock price and analyst estimates change over time.

What Bears Are Worried About

• Some capital-markets strength could be cyclical — Investment banking and trading produced exceptional growth in Q2, but those businesses are sensitive to market activity and deal volumes. Investors should be cautious about assuming the current growth rates will continue indefinitely.

• Lower interest rates can pressure NII — Although net interest income increased 9% year over year, Bank of America noted that the benefit from higher loan and deposit balances and fixed-rate asset repricing was partly offset by lower interest rates. Further rate declines could put additional pressure on NII.

• Banking remains sensitive to credit and regulatory risks — BAC’s balance sheet is strong, but credit losses, economic weakness and changing capital requirements remain risks for any large bank. Q2 provision for credit losses was $1.4 billion, while net charge-offs were also $1.4 billion, so investors should continue monitoring credit quality as the economic cycle evolves.

Why the Quants like this stock

PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) B 0.86
EPS FWD Long Term Growth (3-5Y CAGR) B+ 15.53%
ROE Growth (FWD) A- 12.91%
Cash From Operations (TTM) A+ 94.74B
FY1 Up Revisions (last 90 days) 18 UP 0 Down
Div Yield (FWD) 2.05%
Dividend Safety B

Latest Quarter’s Earnings
Announce Date 7/14/2026
EPS Normalized Actual $1.21 (Beat by $0.08)
EPS GAAP Actual $1.21 (Beat by $0.09)
Revenue Actual $31.56B
Revenue Surprise Beat by $783.40M

My View

I see Bank of America as a fundamentally strong large bank with improving profitability, solid capital, growing loans and deposits, and powerful investment-banking and trading businesses. I especially like the combination of 17% ROTCE, 9% NII growth and $8 billion returned to shareholders. At the same time, I wouldn’t assume the exceptional capital-markets results will continue at the same pace, and I would keep an eye on interest rates and credit quality. For me, BAC’s long-term appeal comes from its ability to consistently compound earnings and tangible book value while returning significant capital to shareholders—not simply from one strong quarter.

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated.

• Quant Weekly – Up over 73% since June 2025

• Quant 30 – Up over 63% since June 2025

• Legacy – Up over 310% since April 2023

• Changes to the main Quant Portfolios

• Top Quant Stocks – Top 10 Financials – Bank stocks

• Education – Reverse Stock Splits: Buying Opportunity or Warning Sign?

USA Stock market week ending 08/28/26

• SPY — SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust: +0.5% — The broad large-cap market finished modestly higher, helped by strong Nvidia earnings and AI optimism, although Friday’s gains reversed as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole comments increased expectations for tighter monetary policy.

• ^IXIC — Nasdaq Composite Index: +0.8% — The Nasdaq outperformed the broader market as technology and software stocks rallied, with Nvidia’s strong earnings and outlook providing a major boost; however, higher Treasury yields and renewed rate-hike concerns pressured tech shares late in the week.

• DIA — SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust: +0.3% — The Dow posted a smaller gain as strength in companies including Salesforce and other large-cap names helped offset weakness created by rising interest-rate expectations.

• IWM — iShares Russell 2000 ETF: -1.4% — Small caps significantly underperformed as higher Treasury yields and increased expectations for a September Fed rate hike pressured more interest-rate-sensitive companies; the underlying Russell 2000 fell about 1.5% for the week.

• SPMO — Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF: -1.3% — Momentum stocks struggled despite the broader Nasdaq gain, with SPMO hit by the Monday selloff and Friday’s technology reversal following Warsh’s comments; SPMO’s daily data shows a 1.74% decline Monday and another 1.22% decline Friday

Market Drivers this Week (08/31/26 – 09/04/26)

• Mon. 8/31: Global manufacturing data, including China’s August PMI, set the tone, while U.S. markets look ahead to a busy week of labor and economic releases.

• Tue. 9/1: JOLTS job openings for July arrive at 10:00 a.m. ET, while U.S. construction spending is also released. Earnings include Palo Alto Networks, MongoDB, Dell, Credo Technology and GitLab after the close.

• Wed. 9/2: ADP’s August employment report arrives, along with the ISM Beige Book and the Bank of Canada rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET. Broadcom, Snowflake and Hewlett Packard Enterprise report earnings after the close.

• Thu. 9/3: A major data day: U.S. trade balance, weekly jobless claims, ISM Services PMI and revised Q2 productivity/costs are scheduled. Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks at 8:30 a.m. ET, while earnings include Ciena, Zscaler, Samsara, DocuSign and UiPath.

• Fri. 9/4: The week’s biggest event is the August U.S. Employment Situation report at 8:30 a.m. ET, including nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at 54. Just barely dropping out of the Greed area into the Neutral area for the second week in a row. This is the fourth week in a row the index has been firmly out of the Fear area. The stock market remains choppy.

• 8/28/26 – 54 Neutral

• 8/21/26 – 55 Neutral

• 8/14/26 – 65 Greed

• 8/7/26 – 64 Greed

• 7/31/26 – 42 Fear

• 7/24/26 – 39 Fear

• 7/17/26 – 37 Fear

• 7/10/26 – 49 Neutral

• 7/3/26 – 32 Fear

• 6/26/26 – 25 Extreme Fear

The Quant Model Portfolios had a slightly down week. This is in keeping with momentum stocks as a whole having a slightly down week too. With the CNN Fear and Greed Index in Neutral for two weeks now, expecting a move up or down in the coming weeks. If the momentum stocks come back into favor, I expect the Portfolios will lead the way up.

Read more

• Quant Weekly – Up over 73% since June 2025

• Quant 30 – Up over 63% since June 2025

• Legacy – Up over 310% since April 2023

• Education – What a $40 Trillion National Debt Could Mean for Your Wallet

USA Stock market week ending 08/28/26

• SPY — SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust: +0.5% — The broad large-cap market finished modestly higher, helped by strong Nvidia earnings and AI optimism, although Friday’s gains reversed as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole comments increased expectations for tighter monetary policy.

• ^IXIC — Nasdaq Composite Index: +0.8% — The Nasdaq outperformed the broader market as technology and software stocks rallied, with Nvidia’s strong earnings and outlook providing a major boost; however, higher Treasury yields and renewed rate-hike concerns pressured tech shares late in the week.

• DIA — SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust: +0.3% — The Dow posted a smaller gain as strength in companies including Salesforce and other large-cap names helped offset weakness created by rising interest-rate expectations.

• IWM — iShares Russell 2000 ETF: -1.4% — Small caps significantly underperformed as higher Treasury yields and increased expectations for a September Fed rate hike pressured more interest-rate-sensitive companies; the underlying Russell 2000 fell about 1.5% for the week.

• SPMO — Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF: -1.3% — Momentum stocks struggled despite the broader Nasdaq gain, with SPMO hit by the Monday selloff and Friday’s technology reversal following Warsh’s comments; SPMO’s daily data shows a 1.74% decline Monday and another 1.22% decline Friday

Market Drivers this Week (08/31/26 – 09/04/26)

• Mon. 8/31: Global manufacturing data, including China’s August PMI, set the tone, while U.S. markets look ahead to a busy week of labor and economic releases.

• Tue. 9/1: JOLTS job openings for July arrive at 10:00 a.m. ET, while U.S. construction spending is also released. Earnings include Palo Alto Networks, MongoDB, Dell, Credo Technology and GitLab after the close.

• Wed. 9/2: ADP’s August employment report arrives, along with the ISM Beige Book and the Bank of Canada rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET. Broadcom, Snowflake and Hewlett Packard Enterprise report earnings after the close.

• Thu. 9/3: A major data day: U.S. trade balance, weekly jobless claims, ISM Services PMI and revised Q2 productivity/costs are scheduled. Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks at 8:30 a.m. ET, while earnings include Ciena, Zscaler, Samsara, DocuSign and UiPath.

• Fri. 9/4: The week’s biggest event is the August U.S. Employment Situation report at 8:30 a.m. ET, including nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at 54. Just barely dropping out of the Greed area into the Neutral area for the second week in a row. This is the fourth week in a row the index has been firmly out of the Fear area. The stock market remains choppy.

• 8/28/26 – 54 Neutral

• 8/21/26 – 55 Neutral

• 8/14/26 – 65 Greed

• 8/7/26 – 64 Greed

• 7/31/26 – 42 Fear

• 7/24/26 – 39 Fear

• 7/17/26 – 37 Fear

• 7/10/26 – 49 Neutral

• 7/3/26 – 32 Fear

• 6/26/26 – 25 Extreme Fear

The Quant Model Portfolios had a slightly down week. This is in keeping with momentum stocks as a whole having a slightly down week too. With the CNN Fear and Greed Index in Neutral for two weeks now, expecting a move up or down in the coming weeks. If the momentum stocks come back into favor, I expect the Portfolios will lead the way up.

Note: You are reading the free subscriber newsletter. Paid subscribers enjoy instant access to weekly Model Portfolio updates upon release. Free subscribers get access to Portfolio updates after a three-week delay. Want timely access to the new Adds/Removes?

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Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly

Any newly added stock is being released to Paid Subscribers today. Below are the updates from three weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to significantly outperform its benchmark, 73% versus 25%. It has 28 members.

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

Add (08/07/26) : ATI (ATI Inc) – Metal Fabrication

Outperformers: SSRM (SSR Mining) up over +130%, MU (Micron Technology) up over +490%, TTMI (TTM Technologies) up over +90%, PARR (Par Pacific Holdings) up over +90%

Model Portfolio Quant 30

This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made three weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 63% to 25%. It has 30 members in it.

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

Add (08/07/26): None

Remove (08/07/26): None

Outperformers: MU (Micron Technology) up over +600%, LITE (Lumentum Holdings) up over +270%, CRDO (Credo Technology) up over +90%, BTSG (BrightSpring Health) up over +160% and SNDK (Sandisk) up over +140%

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy

The portfolio is up over +310% since it began in 2023. It has 17 stocks in it. Powell industries is now a 9 bagger. Celestica is now a 11 bagger

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

Remove (08/07/26): None

Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over +500%, STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over +700%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over +900% and CLS (Celestica) is up over +1100%

Model Portfolio Quant Top Stock

This new Portfolio adds one new stock a week. A separate email is sent on Thursday morning detailing the selection, a shallow dive on the pros and cons of the stock and the criteria used for the Portfolio.

Add: MPC (Marathon Petroleum) – Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Performance to 08-27-2026

Top Quant Stocks for this week – (Paid subscribers only feature)

Paid subscribers were presented with a list of the Top 10 Financials – Bank Stocks.

The last time the top 10 Financial – Bank stocks was revealed was 6/12/26. Since then the top 10 averaged a +5.7% increase. The ETF KBE (SPDR S&P Bank ETF) during the same time was up +2.8%.

What a $40 Trillion National Debt Could Mean for Your Wallet

The U.S. national debt is approaching $40 trillion, an almost unimaginable number. But the more important question isn’t the size of the number itself—it’s how rising debt and interest costs could eventually affect households, businesses and investors.

CBO’s February 2026 baseline projected a $1.9 trillion federal deficit for fiscal 2026 and federal debt held by the public rising from 101% of GDP in 2026 to 120% by 2036.

The Interest Bill Is the Big Problem

The government, like any borrower, has to pay interest on its debt. CBO projects net interest costs of about $1 trillion in 2026, rising to roughly $2.1 trillion by 2036.

That’s money that can’t simultaneously be used for other priorities such as infrastructure, defense, tax reductions or other government programs.

And the problem can compound: more debt + higher interest rates = greater interest expense, which can put additional pressure on future budgets.

What Could It Mean for Borrowing Costs?

Large government borrowing doesn’t automatically cause mortgage or auto-loan rates to rise dollar-for-dollar. Interest rates are influenced by many factors, including inflation, Federal Reserve policy, economic growth and investor demand for Treasury securities.

However, Treasury yields help establish a benchmark for borrowing throughout the economy. Persistently high government borrowing can contribute to upward pressure on longer-term interest rates, potentially making mortgages, business loans and other forms of credit more expensive.

The Deficit Matters as Much as the Debt

The debt is the accumulated result of past deficits, so the annual deficit is critical to understanding where the debt is headed.

CBO projects the federal deficit will grow from $1.9 trillion in 2026 to $3.1 trillion in 2036, with net interest costs rising from about $1.0 trillion to $2.1 trillion over the same period.

Under CBO’s baseline assumptions, debt held by the public reaches 120% of GDP in 2036, while gross federal debt reaches roughly $64 trillion.

Why Should Investors Care?

There isn’t universal agreement about exactly when high debt becomes a crisis. The United States has advantages that many other countries don’t, including the dollar’s international role, deep Treasury markets and a large, productive economy.

But the basic arithmetic isn’t controversial: rising debt means rising interest costs unless the government changes its spending, tax or borrowing trajectory.

And CBO’s projections show the pressure continuing beyond the next decade, with debt held by the public projected to reach 175% of GDP by 2056 under current law.

My View

I wouldn’t view $40 trillion of debt as an immediate reason to panic, but I would take the trend seriously. Rising interest costs can gradually squeeze the federal budget, potentially keep pressure on borrowing costs and eventually force difficult choices involving taxes and government spending.

For investors, the lesson is simple: don’t just watch the size of the debt—watch the cost of servicing it and whether economic growth can keep pace with the debt burden.

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• Position Trader educational blog posts

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All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated.

• Selection for this week

• Some Pros about the stock

• Some Cons about the stock

• Why the Quants like this stock

• Criteria for choosing

• The previous selections

The momentum stocks in the portfolio saw a choppy seven days since last Thursday. The addition of Marathon Petroleum continues the trend of diversifying this Portfolio.

Add: MPC (Marathon Petroleum) – Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

What does the company do?

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is an integrated downstream energy company operating across the U.S. through three segments: Refining & Marketing, Midstream, and Renewable Diesel.

The company refines crude oil and other feedstocks, sells gasoline, diesel, asphalt and other refined products, and operates an extensive network of pipelines, terminals, storage facilities and transportation assets. Its Midstream business also gathers, processes and transports natural gas and natural gas liquids. Marathon also produces, markets and distributes renewable diesel from renewable feedstocks.

Founded in 1887 and headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, Marathon Petroleum is one of the largest U.S. refining and energy companies.

Why Some Investors Are Bullish

• Exceptional Q2 2026 earnings — MPC reported $5.1 billion of net income, or $17.73 per diluted share, versus $1.2 billion and $3.96 a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA reached $8.5 billion, reflecting strong performance across the business.

• Exceptional refining margins — Refining & Marketing margin more than doubled to $36.33 per barrel from $17.58 a year earlier, while R&M adjusted EBITDA jumped to $6.7 billion from $1.9 billion. Higher crack spreads across all regions were the primary driver.

• Strong cash generation and shareholder returns — MPC generated substantial cash during the quarter and returned more than $2.8 billion to shareholders, including approximately $2.53 billion in share repurchases. The company also had $6.1 billion remaining under its repurchase authorization at quarter-end.

• Strong liquidity and financial flexibility — MPC had approximately $7.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents at June 30, 2026 and no borrowings under its $5 billion revolving credit facility. Its financial position provides flexibility to continue investing and returning capital to shareholders.

• Strong analyst support and MPLX growth — TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and raised its price target to $375, while MPC said MPLX expects 12.5% annual distribution growth in 2026 and 2027. MPC shares have also surged more than 120% in 2026, reflecting the market’s strong response to the refining environment.

What Bears Are Worried About

• Refining margins may be difficult to sustain — The $36.33-per-barrel R&M margin was roughly double the year-ago level and was supported by unusually strong crack spreads and global fuel-supply disruptions. If refining conditions normalize, MPC’s earnings could fall sharply because refining is inherently cyclical.

• The stock has already had an enormous run — MPC gained roughly 124% year-to-date through August 21 and more than 122% over the prior year, substantially outperforming the S&P 500. With shares near elevated levels, expectations are high and even strong results could trigger a pullback if margins or earnings disappoint.

• Leverage remains meaningful despite strong liquidity — MPC reported approximately $32.8 billion of consolidated debt and a 56.1% debt-to-capitalization ratio at June 30. While cash and liquidity provide a substantial cushion, investors should remember that MPC’s earnings remain highly sensitive to refining margins, crack spreads and broader energy-market conditions.

Why the Quants like this stock

P/E Non-GAAP (FWD) A- 7.18
PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) A 33.00%
Revenue Growth (YoY) B 15.15%
EPS FWD Long Term Growth (3-5Y CAGR) A- 21.75%
ROE Growth (FWD) A 26.85%
Return on Common Equity (TTM) A+ 47.88%
3M Price Performance A+ 45.20%
FY1 Up Revisions (last 90 days) 14 up and 0 down
Dividend Safety A 1.11%

Latest Quarter’s Earnings
Announce Date 8/4/2026
EPS Normalized Actual $17.73 (Beat by $3.78)
EPS GAAP Actual $17.73 (Beat by $3.57)
Revenue Actual $52.34B
Revenue Surprise Beat by $10.90B

My View

I like MPC’s combination of exceptional current earnings, strong cash generation, shareholder returns and exposure to a powerful refining environment. However, I would be careful about extrapolating Q2’s extraordinary profitability too far into the future because refining margins are cyclical and can normalize quickly. After a gain of more than 120% this year, I would view MPC as a strong business with excellent momentum—but also a stock where expectations and valuation now leave less room for disappointment.

Top Quant Stock of the Week Criteria

I am using a Quantitative research platform that provides a daily list of top-ranked stocks to buy or sell, based on a Comprehensive Quant Score. This Quant system uses computer algorithms to come up with its rankings. This score incorporates multiple factors, including valuation, growth, profitability, momentum, and EPS revisions.

I will be giving heavy weight to strong momentum and strong EPS revisions to make the weekly selection. Then, I will use my tested proprietary criteria to sort and then break any tie.

One stock will be selected each week. That would make 52 selections a year if I don’t miss any weeks because of internet problems.

The hold times for the stocks added will be 1 week to years. Although a 1 week hold would be rare, it could happen if the stocks Quant metrics took a big nose dive right after being selected. If an added stock maintains its good metrics, it will be kept in the portfolio until it doesn’t. No time limit. The Quant system will tell me when it is time to let it go. So the hold time is short, medium and long depending on the Quant system metrics.

All countries are included. ADR’s are ok but Pink Sheet stocks will not be allowed.

Certain Industries are excluded. My testing shows they do not perform well using Quantitative rankings. Two of the main ones are BioTechnology and Pharmacueticals.

The Remove Criteria: Once the stock no longer qualifies to be retained in the Portfolio, it will be removed. This could be because the companies metrics have deteriorated since selection, it is involved in a buyout or financial reporting problems.

Once a stock has been added to the Active list, it will not be added to. No doubling down.

The stocks considered are larger small cap, mid cap, large cap and Mega cap. They will be fairly easy to trade with opening or closing market orders as one of the ways to enter and exit positions.

It should be expected that about 50 stocks will be Active in the Portfolio in any given week, once it gets to the two year mark.

All stocks are added as equal weight. No rebalancing is to occur.

To be considered for addition, the stock has to be in the top group of Quant rankings for just several weeks. This is to allow newly upgraded stocks to qualify quickly. Hopefully, this will catch a couple of strong momentum stocks early in their move.

Once a stock is removed for cause, it can be added back in once it meets the add criteria. No waiting period is required.

There will be no limits on percentages of stocks in the Portfolio by Sector or Industry.

Previous Selections:

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated.

• What does the company do?

• Why Some Investors Are Bullish

• What Bears Are Worried About

• Why the Quants like this stock

• My View

What does the company do?

Amazon.com, Inc. is a global technology and retail company that sells consumer products through online and physical stores, while also generating revenue from advertising, subscriptions and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It operates through North America, International and AWS, offering products such as Kindle, Fire TV, Echo, Ring and eero, along with digital content and media.

Amazon also provides cloud computing, AI, storage, database, analytics and machine-learning services, while its marketplace connects third-party sellers, creators and developers with customers. The company also operates Amazon Prime and advertising businesses serving consumers, sellers and enterprises. Founded in 1994, Amazon is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

Why Some Investors Are Bullish

• Strong Q2 results, led by AWS — Amazon reported $200.6 billion of revenue, up 20% year over year, while operating income rose 43% to $27.5 billion. GAAP EPS was $5.75, although that figure was significantly boosted by the $53.4 billion pre-tax gain related primarily to Amazon’s Anthropic investment.

• AWS growth has reaccelerated sharply — AWS revenue jumped 37% to $42.2 billion, its fastest growth rate in 18 quarters, while AWS operating income climbed 63% to $16.6 billion. AWS is now running at an annualized revenue rate of roughly $169 billion.

• AI demand is creating a substantial growth pipeline — AWS backlog reached approximately $496 billion, while Amazon said both its AI business and chips business surpassed $25 billion annualized revenue run rates, each growing at triple-digit rates.

• Significant financial resources and investment flexibility — Amazon ended Q2 with roughly $123 billion of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities, compared with approximately $132 billion of face-value long-term debt. That leaves Amazon with substantial liquidity to continue funding AI infrastructure and other growth initiatives.

• Multiple growth engines beyond AWS — Amazon’s advertising business grew 26% year over year, while its retail operation continues to improve delivery speeds and its AI, custom-chip, pharmacy, logistics and satellite businesses provide additional long-term opportunities.

What Bears Are Worried About

• Negative free cash flow — Trailing-12-month free cash flow fell to -$7.6 billion from +$18.2 billion a year earlier, largely due to a $66.1 billion increase in capital spending tied to AI infrastructure.

• Massive capital spending — Amazon raised its 2026 capex forecast to about $220 billion from $200 billion, increasing the pressure to generate strong returns from its AI investments.

• Cautious guidance and inflated headline EPS — Amazon guided Q3 revenue to $197–$202 billion, while Q2 EPS of $5.75 was boosted significantly by the Anthropic investment gain, making operating income and free cash flow better measures of underlying performance.

Why the Quants like this stock

• PEG GAAP (TTM) A- 0.23

• Revenue Growth (FWD) A- 14.06%

• EPS FWD Long Term Growth (3-5Y CAGR) A- 20.78%

• Operating Cash Flow Growth (FWD) A 28.34%

• ROE Growth (YoY) B+ 23.37%

• Return on Common Equity (TTM) A- 30.56%

• 6M Price Performance A- 23.09%

• FY1 Up Revisions (last 90 days) 50 Up 1 Down

• Latest Quarter’s Earnings

• Announce Date 7/30/2026

• EPS Normalized Actual $5.75 (Beat by $3.93)

• EPS GAAP Actual $5.75 (Beat by $3.92)

• Revenue Actual $200.61B

• Revenue Surprise Beat by $3.99B

My View

I see Amazon as a company with multiple powerful growth engines—especially AWS, AI, advertising and e-commerce—while I also recognize that its enormous capital spending creates higher expectations for future returns. I like the combination of strong revenue growth, AWS reacceleration and the company’s expanding AI opportunity. At the same time, I want to see whether those massive investments eventually translate into stronger free cash flow and higher profits. For me, Amazon remains an attractive long-term growth story, but the size of its AI spending means execution will be critical.

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated.

• Quant Weekly – Up over 75% since June 2025

• Quant 30 – Up over 65% since June 2025

• Legacy – Up over 320% since April 2023

• Changes to the main Quant Portfolios

• Top Quant Stocks – Top 10 Consumer Discretionary stocks

• Education – What a $40 Trillion National Debt Could Mean for Your Wallet

USA Stock market week ending 08/21/26

• SPY: -1.4% for the week, reflecting a pullback in the broader S&P 500 market.

• ^IXIC: -2.1%, making the Nasdaq the weakest of the major indexes listed here as growth stocks came under pressure.

• DIA: -0.8%, showing a smaller decline than the broader market and Nasdaq.

• IWM: -1.6%, Russell 2000 ETF

• SPMO: -3.0%, indicating a substantially sharper pullback among momentum-oriented large-cap stocks.

Market Drivers this Week (08/24/26 – 08/28/26)

Monday, 8/24

• Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July) — Released at 8:30 AM ET, providing an early look at overall U.S. economic activity.

Tuesday, 8/25

• S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (June), New Home Sales (July), and Consumer Confidence (August) are scheduled, providing several important readings on housing and consumer conditions.

• Earnings: Ulta Beauty, Workday, Affirm and Marvell Technology are scheduled to report after the close.

Wednesday, 8/26

• NVIDIA reports Q2 fiscal 2027 results after the close, making it arguably the week’s most closely watched earnings report. NVIDIA has confirmed the results will cover the quarter ended July 26, with the conference call at 5:00 PM ET.

• Durable Goods Orders, the second estimate of Q2 GDP, Personal Income and Spending, and PCE inflation data are also scheduled, making Wednesday an unusually busy economic-data day.

Thursday, 8/27

• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims arrive at 8:30 AM ET, providing the latest snapshot of labor-market conditions.

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (August) is scheduled at 11:00 AM ET, adding another regional manufacturing reading.

• Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium begins Thursday and runs through Saturday, August 29.

Friday, 8/28

• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole, with investors likely to focus closely on his comments about inflation, monetary policy and the outlook for interest rates.

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment — August final, along with the 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations, is due at 10:00 AM ET.

• BLS preliminary benchmark revisions to payroll employment are scheduled, providing an important reassessment of March 2026 employment levels based on more comprehensive data.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at 55. Just barely dropping out of the Greed area into the Neutral area. This is the third week in a row the index has been firmly out of the Fear area. The stock market remains choppy.

The Quant Model Portfolios gave up some of the gains made last week as the stock market dropped across the board with momentum stocks leading the way down. The mining stocks in the portfolios have been rallying hard in August and are providing some positive alpha. We currently have mining stocks Iamgold, B2Gold, Coeur Mining, Kinross Gold, Newmont and SSR Mining in the Quant Portfolios.

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• Quant Weekly – Up over 75% since June 2025

• Quant 30 – Up over 65% since June 2025

• Legacy – Up over 320% since April 2023

• Education – Oil Refining Outlook If Oil Stays Above $80 for Six Months

USA Stock market week ending 08/21/26

• SPY: -1.4% for the week, reflecting a pullback in the broader S&P 500 market.

• ^IXIC: -2.1%, making the Nasdaq the weakest of the major indexes listed here as growth stocks came under pressure.

• DIA: -0.8%, showing a smaller decline than the broader market and Nasdaq.

• IWM: -1.6%, Russell 2000 ETF

• SPMO: -3.0%, indicating a substantially sharper pullback among momentum-oriented large-cap stocks.

Market Drivers this Week (08/24/26 – 08/28/26)

Monday, 8/24

• Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July) — Released at 8:30 AM ET, providing an early look at overall U.S. economic activity.

Tuesday, 8/25

• S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (June), New Home Sales (July), and Consumer Confidence (August) are scheduled, providing several important readings on housing and consumer conditions.

• Earnings: Ulta Beauty, Workday, Affirm and Marvell Technology are scheduled to report after the close.

Wednesday, 8/26

• NVIDIA reports Q2 fiscal 2027 results after the close, making it arguably the week’s most closely watched earnings report. NVIDIA has confirmed the results will cover the quarter ended July 26, with the conference call at 5:00 PM ET.

• Durable Goods Orders, the second estimate of Q2 GDP, Personal Income and Spending, and PCE inflation data are also scheduled, making Wednesday an unusually busy economic-data day.

Thursday, 8/27

• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims arrive at 8:30 AM ET, providing the latest snapshot of labor-market conditions.

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (August) is scheduled at 11:00 AM ET, adding another regional manufacturing reading.

• Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium begins Thursday and runs through Saturday, August 29.

Friday, 8/28

• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole, with investors likely to focus closely on his comments about inflation, monetary policy and the outlook for interest rates.

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment — August final, along with the 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations, is due at 10:00 AM ET.

• BLS preliminary benchmark revisions to payroll employment are scheduled, providing an important reassessment of March 2026 employment levels based on more comprehensive data.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at 55. Just barely dropping out of the Greed area into the Neutral area. This is the third week in a row the index has been firmly out of the Fear area. The stock market remains choppy.

The Quant Model Portfolios gave up some of the gains made last week as the stock market dropped across the board with momentum stocks leading the way down. The mining stocks in the portfolios have been rallying hard in August and are providing some positive alpha. We currently have mining stocks Iamgold, B2Gold, Coeur Mining, Kinross Gold, Newmont and SSR Mining in the Quant Portfolios.

Note: You are reading the free subscriber newsletter. Paid subscribers enjoy instant access to weekly Model Portfolio updates upon release. Free subscribers get access to Portfolio updates after a three-week delay. Want timely access to the new Adds/Removes?

Subscribe now

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly

Any newly added stock is being released to Paid Subscribers today. Below are the updates from three weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to significantly outperform its benchmark, 75% versus 26%. It has 29 members.

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

Add (07/31/26) : None

Outperformers: SSRM (SSR Mining) up over +130%, MU (Micron Technology) up over +510%, TTMI (TTM Technologies) up over +70%, PARR (Par Pacific Holdings) up over +90%

Model Portfolio Quant 30

This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made three weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 65% to 26%. It has 30 members in it.

UNFI (United Natural Foods) was added to the Portfolio on 11/13/25 and leaves the Portfolio +31%.

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

Add (07/31/26): VSXY (Victorias Secret) – Apparel Retail

Remove (07/31/26): UNFI (United Natural Foods)

Outperformers: MU (Micron Technology) up over +690%, LITE (Lumentum Holdings) up over +260%, CRDO (Credo Technology) up over +90%, BTSG (BrightSpring Health) up over +160% and SNDK (Sandisk) up over +150%

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy

The portfolio is up over +320% since it began in 2023. It has 17 stocks in it. Powell industries is now a 11 bagger. Celestica is now a 13 bagger

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

Remove (07/31/26): None

Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over +600%, STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over +700%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over +1000% and CLS (Celestica) is up over +1100%

Model Portfolio Quant Top Stock

This new Portfolio adds one new stock a week. A separate email is sent on Thursday morning detailing the selection, a shallow dive on the pros and cons of the stock and the criteria used for the Portfolio.

Add: OSCR (Oscar Health) – Healthcare Plans

Performance to 08-21-2026

Top Quant Stocks for this week – (Paid subscribers only feature)

Paid subscribers were presented with a list of the Top 10 Consumer Discretionary stocks.

Oil Refining Outlook If Oil Stays Above $80 for Six Months

The most important thing to understand about refiners is that oil prices themselves don’t determine profitability—the crack spread does. The crack spread measures the difference between the cost of crude and the value of the gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other products a refinery produces.

So, if oil stays above $80 per barrel for six months, that isn’t necessarily bad news for refiners. What matters is whether refined-product prices remain high enough to preserve healthy margins.

Why a Stable $80+ Oil Price Could Still Be Positive for Refiners

• Crack spreads matter more than the absolute price of crude. A refiner can potentially make strong profits with $80 oil if gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel prices remain sufficiently high relative to crude. Recent 2026 conditions illustrate this: U.S. refinery margins were elevated in Q2 as tight international product supplies pushed gasoline, distillate and jet-fuel crack spreads higher.

• Refinery capacity remains relatively tight. U.S. operable refining capacity fell by more than 250,000 barrels per day during 2025, with the closures of the LyondellBasell Houston refinery and Phillips 66’s Los Angeles refinery accounting for roughly 400,000 barrels per day of lost capacity.

• Global capacity growth is not keeping pace with product demand. Rystad expects global refinery capacity growth of less than 800,000 barrels per day in 2026 versus roughly 900,000 barrels per day of product-demand growth. It also notes that demand has outpaced capacity growth by roughly 400,000 barrels per day annually since 2023. That combination can support high utilization and elevated crack spreads.

• Aerospace and diesel demand can be particularly important. The recent disruption to international petroleum-product flows pushed U.S. distillate and jet-fuel exports to unusually high levels in Q2 2026. EIA reported that U.S. distillate exports averaged 1.56 million barrels per day and jet-fuel exports 356,000 barrels per day during the quarter.

• Refiners with access to cheaper crude can have an additional advantage. Regional crude-price differences can improve a refinery’s economics when it can purchase relatively inexpensive feedstock while selling products into markets where refined-product prices remain strong. This is another reason the absolute price of WTI or Brent isn’t enough to determine refinery profitability.

Where the Real Risk Is

• A sustained $80 oil price isn’t automatically bullish. If gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel prices don’t rise along with crude, crack spreads can narrow and refinery margins can deteriorate. The key question is therefore not “Is oil above $80?” but “What happens to product prices relative to crude?”

• Today’s unusually strong margins may not last. EIA has previously noted that tight inventories can push gasoline crack spreads higher in the near term, but expects margins to narrow as inventories rebuild and the summer driving season ends.

• Supply disruptions can eventually reverse. The extraordinary refinery margins seen during Q2 were partly driven by disruptions to global crude and petroleum-product flows through the Strait of Hormuz. If those disruptions ease and global supplies normalize, some of the premium embedded in refined-product prices could disappear even if crude remains relatively expensive.

• Refinery utilization matters. High utilization generally supports margins when product supply is tight, but refiners can also face maintenance, outages, labor issues and other operational problems that affect production and profitability.

My View

I’d focus less on whether oil stays above $80 and more on whether crack spreads remain strong. If product prices stay high relative to crude, refiners could continue generating strong profits; if spreads normalize, margins could fall even with $80+ oil.

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All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated.

• Selection for this week

• Some Pros about the stock

• Some Cons about the stock

• Why the Quants like this stock

• Criteria for choosing

• The previous selections

The momentum stocks in the portfolio saw a flat performance since last Thursday. Some days saw big swings to the upside and some saw big swings to the downside. This portfolio is very volatile and not intended for short term trading. Medium to long term holds are appropriate. This, the 14th addition, is a health care stock. Continuing the trend of diversifying from the initial heavy concentration in IT stocks.

Add: OSCR (Oscar Health) – Healthcare Plans

What does the company do?

Oscar Health, Inc. is a U.S.-based healthcare technology company that provides health plans for individuals, families, employees, and small businesses. It also offers the +Oscar healthcare platform, Campaign Builder for provider and payer engagement, reinsurance products, brokerage services, and an enrollment platform that helps consumers and brokers shop for and enroll in medical and supplemental health plans. Founded in 2012 and headquartered in New York City, the company was formerly known as Mulberry Health Inc. and adopted the Oscar Health name in January 2021.

Why Some Investors Are Bullish

• Excellent Q2 results — Revenue reached $4.88 billion, up 70% year over year, while net income jumped to $361.8 million, or $1.10 per diluted share, from a $228.4 million loss a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA reached $415.3 million, compared with a $199.4 million loss in Q2 2025.

• Major margin improvement — The medical loss ratio improved to 79.2% from 91.1%, while the SG&A ratio fell to 14.2% from 18.7%. However, part of the MLR improvement came from $164 million of favorable prior-period reserve development, so investors shouldn’t assume all of the improvement is purely structural.

• Raised 2026 guidance — Oscar increased its full-year earnings-from-operations outlook to $500–$700 million, up from its previous $250–$450 million range, while maintaining revenue guidance of $18.7–$19.0 billion. It also lowered its projected full-year MLR range to 81.5%–82.5%.

• Strong membership growth — Effectuated membership reached approximately 2.96 million at June 30, compared with about 2.03 million a year earlier, an increase of roughly 46%. Oscar’s growth is being driven primarily by its Individual and Small Group offerings, although the company no longer offers small-group plans effective December 2024.

• Technology remains an important differentiator — Oscar continues to position its technology platform and AI capabilities as important tools for improving member engagement, healthcare navigation and operating efficiency. The company’s broader strategy is built around combining health insurance with a technology-driven consumer experience.

What Bears Are Worried About

• The stock’s reaction shows expectations are high — Despite the strong Q2 numbers and higher guidance, the market reaction was negative. That suggests investors may be looking beyond the current quarter and focusing on whether Oscar can sustain its unusually strong margins and profitability.

• Medical-cost and membership risks remain — Oscar’s results remain highly sensitive to medical costs, risk adjustment and membership trends. A deterioration in medical claims or changes in the ACA marketplace could put pressure on margins and earnings.

• Some of the margin improvement may not be repeatable — The Q2 MLR benefited from $164 million of favorable prior-period reserve development, meaning investors should be cautious about extrapolating the quarter’s 79.2% MLR indefinitely. Oscar’s full-year guidance still assumes an MLR of 81.5%–82.5%, indicating management expects some normalization.

Why the Quants like this stock

Price / Sales (FWD) A+ 0.53
Revenue Growth (FWD) A+ 30.28%
Operating Cash Flow Growth (YoY) A+ 257.99%
ROE Growth (FWD) A+ 117.65%
Return on Common Equity (TTM) A+ 34.31%
3M Price Performance A+ 31.73%
FY1 Up Revisions (last 90 days) 7 Up and 0 Down

My View

I like Oscar’s improving profitability, rapid membership growth and technology-driven business model. But after such a dramatic improvement in earnings, I would want to see how much of the margin expansion is sustainable before getting too aggressive—the next few quarters should tell us whether Oscar has truly turned a corner or simply benefited from unusually favorable conditions.

Top Quant Stock of the Week Criteria

I am using a Quantitative research platform that provides a daily list of top-ranked stocks to buy or sell, based on a Comprehensive Quant Score. This Quant system uses computer algorithms to come up with its rankings. This score incorporates multiple factors, including valuation, growth, profitability, momentum, and EPS revisions.

I will be giving heavy weight to strong momentum and strong EPS revisions to make the weekly selection. Then, I will use my tested proprietary criteria to sort and then break any tie.

One stock will be selected each week. That would make 52 selections a year if I don’t miss any weeks because of internet problems.

The hold times for the stocks added will be 1 week to years. Although a 1 week hold would be rare, it could happen if the stocks Quant metrics took a big nose dive right after being selected. If an added stock maintains its good metrics, it will be kept in the portfolio until it doesn’t. No time limit. The Quant system will tell me when it is time to let it go. So the hold time is short, medium and long depending on the Quant system metrics.

All countries are included. ADR’s are ok but Pink Sheet stocks will not be allowed.

Certain Industries are excluded. My testing shows they do not perform well using Quantitative rankings. Two of the main ones are BioTechnology and Pharmacueticals.

The Remove Criteria: Once the stock no longer qualifies to be retained in the Portfolio, it will be removed. This could be because the companies metrics have deteriorated since selection, it is involved in a buyout or financial reporting problems.

Once a stock has been added to the Active list, it will not be added to. No doubling down.

The stocks considered are larger small cap, mid cap, large cap and Mega cap. They will be fairly easy to trade with opening or closing market orders as one of the ways to enter and exit positions.

It should be expected that about 50 stocks will be Active in the Portfolio in any given week, once it gets to the two year mark.

All stocks are added as equal weight. No rebalancing is to occur.

To be considered for addition, the stock has to be in the top group of Quant rankings for just several weeks. This is to allow newly upgraded stocks to qualify quickly. Hopefully, this will catch a couple of strong momentum stocks early in their move.

Once a stock is removed for cause, it can be added back in once it meets the add criteria. No waiting period is required.

There will be no limits on percentages of stocks in the Portfolio by Sector or Industry.

Previous Selections:

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated.

• What does the company do?

• Why Some Investors Are Bullish

• What Bears Are Worried About

• Why the Quants like this stock

• My View

What does the company do?

Oscar Health, Inc. is a U.S.-based healthcare technology company that provides health plans for individuals, families, employees, and small businesses. It also offers the +Oscar healthcare platform, Campaign Builder for provider and payer engagement, reinsurance products, brokerage services, and an enrollment platform that helps consumers and brokers shop for and enroll in medical and supplemental health plans. Founded in 2012 and headquartered in New York City, the company was formerly known as Mulberry Health Inc. and adopted the Oscar Health name in January 2021.

Why Some Investors Are Bullish

• Excellent Q2 results — Revenue reached $4.88 billion, up 70% year over year, while net income jumped to $361.8 million, or $1.10 per diluted share, from a $228.4 million loss a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA reached $415.3 million, compared with a $199.4 million loss in Q2 2025.

• Major margin improvement — The medical loss ratio improved to 79.2% from 91.1%, while the SG&A ratio fell to 14.2% from 18.7%. However, part of the MLR improvement came from $164 million of favorable prior-period reserve development, so investors shouldn’t assume all of the improvement is purely structural.

• Raised 2026 guidance — Oscar increased its full-year earnings-from-operations outlook to $500–$700 million, up from its previous $250–$450 million range, while maintaining revenue guidance of $18.7–$19.0 billion. It also lowered its projected full-year MLR range to 81.5%–82.5%.

• Strong membership growth — Effectuated membership reached approximately 2.96 million at June 30, compared with about 2.03 million a year earlier, an increase of roughly 46%. Oscar’s growth is being driven primarily by its Individual and Small Group offerings, although the company no longer offers small-group plans effective December 2024.

• Technology remains an important differentiator — Oscar continues to position its technology platform and AI capabilities as important tools for improving member engagement, healthcare navigation and operating efficiency. The company’s broader strategy is built around combining health insurance with a technology-driven consumer experience.

What Bears Are Worried About

• The stock’s reaction shows expectations are high — Despite the strong Q2 numbers and higher guidance, the market reaction was negative. That suggests investors may be looking beyond the current quarter and focusing on whether Oscar can sustain its unusually strong margins and profitability.

• Medical-cost and membership risks remain — Oscar’s results remain highly sensitive to medical costs, risk adjustment and membership trends. A deterioration in medical claims or changes in the ACA marketplace could put pressure on margins and earnings.

• Some of the margin improvement may not be repeatable — The Q2 MLR benefited from $164 million of favorable prior-period reserve development, meaning investors should be cautious about extrapolating the quarter’s 79.2% MLR indefinitely. Oscar’s full-year guidance still assumes an MLR of 81.5%–82.5%, indicating management expects some normalization.

Why the Quants like this stock

Price / Sales (FWD) A+ 0.53
Revenue Growth (FWD) A+ 30.28%
Operating Cash Flow Growth (YoY) A+ 257.99%
ROE Growth (FWD) A+ 117.65%
Return on Common Equity (TTM) A+ 34.31%
3M Price Performance A+ 31.73%
FY1 Up Revisions (last 90 days) 7 Up and 0 Down

My View

I like Oscar’s improving profitability, rapid membership growth and technology-driven business model. But after such a dramatic improvement in earnings, I would want to see how much of the margin expansion is sustainable before getting too aggressive—the next few quarters should tell us whether Oscar has truly turned a corner or simply benefited from unusually favorable conditions.

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated.

• What does the company do?

• Why Some Investors Are Bullish

• What Bears Are Worried About

• Why the Quants like this stock

• My View

What does the company do?

ATI Inc. produces specialty materials and complex components for customers worldwide. Its two main segments, High Performance Materials & Components and Advanced Alloys & Solutions, manufacture titanium, nickel- and cobalt-based alloys, specialty metals, powders, precision forgings, components and machined parts. The company serves a wide range of markets, including aerospace and defense, medical, energy, transportation, automotive, construction and mining. Formerly known as Allegheny Technologies Incorporated, ATI was founded in 1996.

Why Some Investors Are Bullish

• Strong Q2 2026 results — ATI reported about $1.26 billion in Q2 sales, with net income attributable to ATI of roughly $151 million and diluted EPS of $1.09. The results represent strong year-over-year growth and continued improvement from Q1.

• Raised 2026 guidance — Management increased its full-year outlook to approximately $1.135–$1.185 billion in adjusted EBITDA, $4.90–$5.18 in adjusted EPS and $550–$600 million in adjusted free cash flow, signaling continued confidence in demand and operating performance.

• Record backlog and strong demand — ATI continues to benefit from strong aerospace and defense demand, with a growing backlog and extended lead times for certain premium titanium and specialty products. That provides meaningful visibility into future revenue.

• Aerospace and defense remain the key growth engines — Demand for high-performance titanium, nickel-based alloys, forgings and other specialty materials remains strong. ATI is also expanding its defense business through long-term agreements, including work supporting the U.S. Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program.

• Capacity investments create additional growth potential — ATI is investing heavily to expand production capacity and improve manufacturing efficiency. If these projects are executed successfully, they could allow ATI to capture additional aerospace and defense demand over the next several years.

What Bears Are Worried About

• The stock has already had a huge run — ATI shares have appreciated dramatically over the past year and recently reached new highs. After such a strong rally, expectations are elevated, increasing the risk of a pullback if future results fail to exceed those expectations.

• Capacity expansions still have to be executed — New facilities and equipment require customer qualification and production ramp-ups, which can delay shipments and shift revenue into future periods. The growth opportunity is significant, but execution remains important.

• Free cash flow and execution remain risks — Working-capital requirements, inventory and receivables can cause free cash flow to fluctuate even when earnings are strong. ATI is also making substantial investments to expand capacity, meaning strong earnings don’t necessarily translate into immediate free-cash-flow growth.

Why the Quants like this stock

• PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) B 1.38

• Revenue Growth (FWD) B- +8.88%

• EPS FWD Long Term Growth (3-5Y CAGR) A 32.20%

• ROE Growth (FWD) A- +17.31%

• EBIT Growth (FWD) A- +28.31%

• Return on Common Equity (TTM) A- +26.29%

• 3M Price Performance A+ 40.54%

• FY1 Up Revisions (last 90 days) 7 Up and 0 Down

My View

I like ATI’s combination of strong aerospace and defense demand, growing backlog, capacity expansion and improving profitability. However, after the stock’s enormous run, I would be more focused on valuation and execution than simply looking at the latest earnings beat. ATI looks like a strong company with an attractive growth story, but at a much higher stock price, I believe the margin for error is smaller.

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated.

• Quant Weekly – Up over 80% since June 2025

• Quant 30 – Up over 76% since June 2025

• Legacy – Up over 350% since April 2023

• No changes to the main Quant Portfolios

• Top Quant Stocks – Top 10 Industrials

• Education – Oil Refining Outlook If Oil Stays Above $80 for Six Months

USA Stock market week ending 08/14/26

• SPY (S&P 500 ETF): +0.4% — The S&P 500 posted a modest weekly gain, extending its recent advance.

• ^IXIC (Nasdaq Composite): +0.1% — The Nasdaq was essentially flat for the week, finishing with a small gain.

• DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF): -0.5% — The Dow declined modestly and underperformed the broader market.

• IWM (Russell 2000 ETF): +1.2% — Small-cap stocks outperformed the major large-cap indexes during the week.

• SPMO (Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF): +2.4% — Momentum stocks were the strongest performer among the indexes and ETFs tracked here.

Market Drivers this Week (08/17/26 – 08/21/26)

Monday, 8/17 — Manufacturing and Housing Sentiment

• Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August is released at 8:30 AM ET, providing an early regional read on manufacturing activity.

• NAHB Housing Market Index for August follows at 10:00 AM ET, offering a gauge of homebuilder sentiment.

• The earnings calendar is relatively light, with Fabrinet (FN) and XPeng (XPEV) among the companies reporting.

Tuesday, 8/18 — Heavy Economic Data and Home Depot

• Housing Starts and Building Permits for July, along with Import and Export Price Indexes, are released at 8:30 AM ET.

• Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for July follow at 9:15 AM ET, providing an important look at manufacturing activity.

• Pending Home Sales for July are released at 10:00 AM ET, adding another measure of housing demand.

Wednesday, 8/19 — Major Retail Earnings and Fed Minutes

• Target (TGT), Lowe’s (LOW), TJX Companies (TJX), and Estée Lauder (EL) report earnings, creating a significant consumer/retail earnings day.

• The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its July meeting, an important event for investors assessing the Fed’s thinking on interest rates.

Thursday, 8/20 — Jobs, Manufacturing and Consumer Earnings

• Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims provide the latest look at labor-market conditions.

• The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for July is released at 10:00 AM ET and provides a broader gauge of the economy’s forward direction.

• Walmart (WMT), Alibaba (BABA), Deere (DE), and Ross Stores (ROST) report earnings, giving investors additional insight into consumers, retail and industrial demand.

Friday, 8/21 — Flash PMI Data

• S&P Global Flash Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs for August are released, providing the first major broad reading of current-month business activity.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at 65, in the Greed area for the 2nd week in a row. It looks like the beginning of a bullish trend and the stock market has been very healthy the last two weeks.

The Quant Model Portfolios were up substantially this week. The Quant Weekly is now up 80% and Quant 30 up 76% since their start in the middle of last year. Beaten down Momentum stocks are making a strong rebound. I hope my subscribers took advantage of the depressed stock prices at the end of July to add to positions.

Read more

• Quant Weekly – Up over 80% since June 2025

• Quant 30 – Up over 76% since June 2025

• Legacy – Up over 350% since April 2023

• Education – Jesse Livermore was a legendary American stock trader

USA Stock market week ending 08/14/26

• SPY (S&P 500 ETF): +0.4% — The S&P 500 posted a modest weekly gain, extending its recent advance.

• ^IXIC (Nasdaq Composite): +0.1% — The Nasdaq was essentially flat for the week, finishing with a small gain.

• DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF): -0.5% — The Dow declined modestly and underperformed the broader market.

• IWM (Russell 2000 ETF): +1.2% — Small-cap stocks outperformed the major large-cap indexes during the week.

• SPMO (Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF): +2.4% — Momentum stocks were the strongest performer among the indexes and ETFs tracked here.

Market Drivers this Week (08/17/26 – 08/21/26)

Monday, 8/17 — Manufacturing and Housing Sentiment

• Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August is released at 8:30 AM ET, providing an early regional read on manufacturing activity.

• NAHB Housing Market Index for August follows at 10:00 AM ET, offering a gauge of homebuilder sentiment.

• The earnings calendar is relatively light, with Fabrinet (FN) and XPeng (XPEV) among the companies reporting.

Tuesday, 8/18 — Heavy Economic Data and Home Depot

• Housing Starts and Building Permits for July, along with Import and Export Price Indexes, are released at 8:30 AM ET.

• Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for July follow at 9:15 AM ET, providing an important look at manufacturing activity.

• Pending Home Sales for July are released at 10:00 AM ET, adding another measure of housing demand.

Wednesday, 8/19 — Major Retail Earnings and Fed Minutes

• Target (TGT), Lowe’s (LOW), TJX Companies (TJX), and Estée Lauder (EL) report earnings, creating a significant consumer/retail earnings day.

• The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its July meeting, an important event for investors assessing the Fed’s thinking on interest rates.

Thursday, 8/20 — Jobs, Manufacturing and Consumer Earnings

• Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims provide the latest look at labor-market conditions.

• The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for July is released at 10:00 AM ET and provides a broader gauge of the economy’s forward direction.

• Walmart (WMT), Alibaba (BABA), Deere (DE), and Ross Stores (ROST) report earnings, giving investors additional insight into consumers, retail and industrial demand.

Friday, 8/21 — Flash PMI Data

• S&P Global Flash Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs for August are released, providing the first major broad reading of current-month business activity.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at 65, in the Greed area for the 2nd week in a row. It looks like the beginning of a bullish trend and the stock market has been very healthy the last two weeks.

The Quant Model Portfolios were up substantially this week. The Quant Weekly is now up 80% and Quant 30 up 76% since their start in the middle of last year. Beaten down Momentum stocks are making a strong rebound. I hope my subscribers took advantage of the depressed stock prices at the end of July to add to positions.

Note: You are reading the free subscriber newsletter. Paid subscribers enjoy instant access to weekly Model Portfolio updates upon release. Free subscribers get access to Portfolio updates after a three-week delay. Want timely access to the new Adds/Removes?

Subscribe now

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly

Any newly added stock is being released to Paid Subscribers today. Below are the updates from three weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to significantly outperform its benchmark, 80% versus 26%. It has 29 members.

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

Add (07/24/26) : None

Outperformers: SSRM (SSR Mining) up over +100%, MU (Micron Technology) up over +510%, TTMI (TTM Technologies) up over +120%, PARR (Par Pacific Holdings) up over +90%

Model Portfolio Quant 30

This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made three weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 76% to 26%. It has 30 members in it.

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

Add (07/24/26): None

Remove (07/24/26): None

Outperformers: MU (Micron Technology) up over +690%, LITE (Lumentum Holdings) up over +280%, CRDO (Credo Technology) up over +120%, BTSG (BrightSpring Health) up over +170% and SNDK (Sandisk) up over +160%

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy

The portfolio is up over +350% since it began in 2023. It has 17 stocks in it. Powell industries is now a 11 bagger. Celestica is now a 13 bagger

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

Remove (07/24/26): None

Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over +700%, STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over +800%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over +1100% and CLS (Celestica) is up over +1300%

Model Portfolio Quant Top Stock

This new Portfolio adds one new stock a week. A separate email is sent on Thursday morning detailing the selection, a shallow dive on the pros and cons of the stock and the criteria used for the Portfolio.

Add: PSX (Phillips 66) – Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Performance to 08-14-2026

Top Quant Stocks for this week – (Paid subscribers only feature)

Paid subscribers were presented with a list of the Top 10 Industrials.

Jesse Livermore — Who was he?

Jesse Livermore (1877–1940) was a legendary American stock trader and a pioneer of technical analysis. He began trading as a teenager and became famous for making—and later losing—several large fortunes through highly leveraged speculation.

Livermore was known for major trades during the 1907 panic and 1929 stock-market crash, but his career also demonstrated the dangers of leverage, overconfidence and poor risk management.

His life and trading philosophy inspired Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre, and his principles—particularly those involving price action and trading psychology—continue to influence investors today.

Five takeaways from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre for the Livermore principles

Big money comes from sitting tight when the trade is right.

One of Livermore’s most famous lessons was that finding the right investment is only half the battle. The patience to let a successful position develop can be even more difficult.

Cut losses and give successful positions room to work.

Livermore emphasized protecting capital when a trade was wrong while giving profitable positions time to develop. This remains one of the most important principles of risk management.

The biggest enemy is often psychology.

Livermore’s experiences demonstrated how fear, greed, hope, impatience and overconfidence can undermine even a sound strategy. Controlling emotions is therefore as important as analyzing the market.

Wait for the market to confirm an opinion before committing significant capital.

Livermore recognized that being early isn’t necessarily the same as being right. Waiting for market confirmation can reduce the risk of committing too much capital based solely on a prediction.

The goal isn’t to be a bull or a bear — it’s to be on the right side.

Livermore believed traders should remain flexible rather than become emotionally attached to a particular market direction. The objective is to follow the evidence and change course when the market proves the original view wrong.

My View of Livermore’s Lessons

I’ve come to see Livermore’s approach as being less about predicting the market and more about discipline, patience, and controlling my own behavior. I need to respect the market’s direction, wait for confirmation, cut losses when I’m wrong, and give profitable positions room to develop.

The biggest lesson for me is that having a good strategy isn’t enough—I have to follow it consistently. Avoiding tips, resisting the temptation to average down, limiting unnecessary trading, and remaining disciplined after both wins and losses can be more important than finding the perfect trade.

Quick Links

See comments.

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated.

• Selection for this week

• Some Pros about the stock

• Some Cons about the stock

• Quant Rankings

• Criteria for choosing

• The previous selections

The momentum stocks in the portfolio saw an increase since last Thursday. The stock added last week, NESR (National Energy Services Reunited) , saw an increase of +23% since added. The portfolio continues to steadily diversify away from the initial heavy concentration in IT stocks that made up the initial starting selections.

Add: PSX (Phillips 66) – Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

What does the company do?

Phillips 66 is an integrated downstream energy company operating in the U.S., U.K., Germany and other international markets. It operates through five segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, Marketing and Specialties, and Renewable Fuels.

The company transports and stores crude oil and refined products, processes and markets natural gas and NGLs, produces chemicals and plastics, and refines crude oil into gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel. It also markets refined and specialty products, including lubricants and base oils, while expanding its renewable fuels business and sustainable aviation fuel operations.

Phillips 66 markets products under brands including Phillips 66, Conoco, 76, JET, Kendall and Red Line. Founded in 1875 and headquartered in Houston, Texas, the company has a diversified business model spanning traditional and renewable energy.

Why Some Investors Are Bullish

Exceptional Q2 2026 earnings
Phillips 66 reported $3.85 billion in Q2 net income, compared with $877 million a year earlier. Adjusted EPS was $9.41, well above the $7.68 consensus estimate, helped by exceptionally strong refining margins.

Generally positive analyst sentiment
Analyst coverage remains favorable overall, although there is disagreement among analysts. Recent targets include $235 from Goldman Sachs, Raymond James and UBS, while Barclays maintained a much more conservative $183 target.

Strong earnings outlook
Analysts were forecasting a substantial improvement in 2026 earnings even before the Q2 results. The latest consensus available before earnings projected approximately $22.43 in 2026 EPS, highlighting the magnitude of the expected earnings recovery.

Diversified business model
Phillips 66 operates across Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, Marketing and Specialties, and Renewable Fuels, giving it more diversified operations than a pure-play refiner.

Major Western Gateway opportunity
Phillips 66, Kinder Morgan and HF Sinclair have approved the $5 billion Western Gateway Pipeline project. Phillips 66 will own 49.9%, and the approximately 1,300-mile system is expected to transport up to 230,000 barrels per day, with completion targeted for 2029.

What Bears Are Worried About

The stock has already had a major run
PSX shares have risen approximately 75% in 2026, dramatically outperforming the broader energy sector. After such a large gain, expectations are higher and the stock could be vulnerable to a pullback if earnings disappoint.

Refining margins may normalize
The exceptional Q2 results were helped by unusually strong refining margins resulting from disruptions to global crude and fuel supplies. Refining executives remain optimistic, but margins are expected to ease as the year progresses.

Cyclical, commodity-driven business
Despite its diversification, Phillips 66 remains significantly exposed to refining margins, crude prices, fuel demand and geopolitical conditions. A reversal in these favorable conditions could cause earnings and cash flow to decline sharply.

Quant Rankings

P/E Non-GAAP (FWD) B+ 8.76
PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) A+ 0.24
Revenue Growth (YoY) B 14.44%
EPS FWD Long Term Growth (3-5Y CAGR) A+ 35.97%

ROE Growth (YoY) A+ 279%
Return on Common Equity (TTM) A- 24%
3M Price Performance A+ 28%
FY1 Up Revisions (last 90 days) 15 with 0 Down

Dividend Safety A-

Div Yield (FWD) 2.25%

My View

I see Phillips 66 as a much stronger company than it was previously, with exceptional Q2 earnings, a diversified business and significant long-term infrastructure opportunities. However, after the stock’s substantial rally, I would be cautious about assuming that Q2’s unusually strong refining margins will continue at the same level. For me, the key question is whether Phillips 66 can convert today’s exceptional refining environment into sustainable earnings and cash flow over the longer term.

Top Quant Stock of the Week Criteria

I am using a Quantitative research platform that provides a daily list of top-ranked stocks to buy or sell, based on a Comprehensive Quant Score. This Quant system uses computer algorithms to come up with its rankings. This score incorporates multiple factors, including valuation, growth, profitability, momentum, and EPS revisions.

I will be giving heavy weight to strong momentum and strong EPS revisions to make the weekly selection. Then, I will use my tested proprietary criteria to sort and then break any tie.

One stock will be selected each week. That would make 52 selections a year if I don’t miss any weeks because of internet problems.

The hold times for the stocks added will be 1 week to years. Although a 1 week hold would be rare, it could happen if the stocks Quant metrics took a big nose dive right after being selected. If an added stock maintains its good metrics, it will be kept in the portfolio until it doesn’t. No time limit. The Quant system will tell me when it is time to let it go. So the hold time is short, medium and long depending on the Quant system metrics.

All countries are included. ADR’s are ok but Pink Sheet stocks will not be allowed.

Certain Industries are excluded. My testing shows they do not perform well using Quantitative rankings. Two of the main ones are BioTechnology and Pharmacueticals.

The Remove Criteria: Once the stock no longer qualifies to be retained in the Portfolio, it will be removed. This could be because the companies metrics have deteriorated since selection, it is involved in a buyout or financial reporting problems.

Once a stock has been added to the Active list, it will not be added to. No doubling down.

The stocks considered are larger small cap, mid cap, large cap and Mega cap. They will be fairly easy to trade with opening or closing market orders as one of the ways to enter and exit positions.

It should be expected that about 50 stocks will be Active in the Portfolio in any given week, once it gets to the two year mark.

All stocks are added as equal weight. No rebalancing is to occur.

To be considered for addition, the stock has to be in the top group of Quant rankings for just several weeks. This is to allow newly upgraded stocks to qualify quickly. Hopefully, this will catch a couple of strong momentum stocks early in their move.

Once a stock is removed for cause, it can be added back in once it meets the add criteria. No waiting period is required.

There will be no limits on percentages of stocks in the Portfolio by Sector or Industry.

Previous Selections:

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated.

• Who was Jesse Livermore

• Takeaways from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre for the Livermore principles

• Summary

• Related Video

Jesse Livermore — Who was he?

Jesse Livermore (1877–1940) was a legendary American stock trader and a pioneer of technical analysis. He began trading as a teenager and became famous for making—and later losing—several large fortunes through highly leveraged speculation.

Livermore was known for major trades during the 1907 panic and 1929 stock-market crash, but his career also demonstrated the dangers of leverage, overconfidence and poor risk management.

His life and trading philosophy inspired Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre, and his principles—particularly those involving price action and trading psychology—continue to influence investors today.

Takeaways from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre for the Livermore principles

The market doesn’t care about opinions

The market doesn’t have to agree with an investor’s expectations. Successful speculation requires observing what prices are actually doing rather than arguing with the market or clinging to what prices should be doing.

Human nature doesn’t change

Booms, panics, greed and fear have appeared throughout market history. While stocks, technology and market structures change, the emotions that drive investors remain remarkably consistent.

Big money comes from sitting tight when the trade is right

Finding a good trade is only part of the challenge. The greater opportunity often comes from having the patience to remain invested while a favorable market move develops instead of constantly trading around a position.

Psychology can be the biggest enemy

Hope, fear, greed and impatience can cause significant damage to a trading account. Understanding market behavior is important, but controlling emotional reactions is equally important.

Averaging down can turn a mistake into a larger mistake

Adding capital to a losing position simply because the price has fallen can compound an original error. Accepting a manageable loss can be preferable to committing additional capital to a trade that isn’t working.

Cut losses and give successful positions room to work

Small losses are an unavoidable part of speculation, while large losses can seriously damage capital. The objective is to control downside risk while allowing profitable positions sufficient time to develop.

Wait for market confirmation

Having a strong opinion isn’t enough to justify an immediate commitment of capital. Waiting for price action to confirm an investment thesis can help reduce the risk of being early or acting on an unproven assumption.

The goal isn’t to be bullish or bearish — it’s to be on the right side

Successful speculators don’t need permanent allegiance to either direction. The objective is to recognize which side of the market is actually working and adjust accordingly.

Respect the prevailing trend

Trying to identify every market top and bottom can be costly. When a meaningful trend is established, working with that trend is often more productive than continually attempting to predict its reversal.

Price action can reveal more than opinions

What a stock actually does can be more informative than what investors believe it should do. Significant price movements and pivotal points can provide useful evidence about underlying strength, weakness and momentum.

Too much activity can be damaging

There is no requirement to trade simply because the market is open. Waiting for favorable conditions can be more productive than forcing trades when there is no compelling opportunity.

Speculation requires discipline and study

Successful speculation is not simply gambling on hunches. It requires preparation, observation, experience, record-keeping and the discipline to learn from mistakes.

Following the crowd can be dangerous at extremes

Investor confidence can become excessive during speculative periods, while fear can become extreme during major declines. Independent thinking becomes particularly valuable when market sentiment reaches an extreme.

Let the market confirm expectations

A market opinion alone doesn’t guarantee a profitable trade. Price action should provide evidence that an anticipated move is actually developing before significant capital is committed.

Increase exposure as the trade proves itself

Building a position as the market confirms the original thesis can be more disciplined than committing maximum capital immediately. This approach, associated with Livermore’s pyramiding strategy, emphasizes adding to positions that are working rather than automatically adding to those that are losing.

Rules only work when they are followed

Having sound principles is not enough to guarantee success. The real test comes during periods of pressure, when abandoning discipline can turn a sound strategy into a costly mistake.

Tips are no substitute for independent analysis

Relying on someone else’s market tip can be dangerous because the reasoning, timing and circumstances behind the recommendation may not be understood. Independent analysis and observation of market behavior provide a more reliable foundation for decision-making.

Distinguish normal fluctuations from being wrong

A profitable position won’t necessarily move in one direction every day. Successful speculation requires distinguishing ordinary market fluctuations from price action that genuinely indicates the original thesis may be incorrect.

Success can create dangerous overconfidence

Winning streaks can be psychologically dangerous because they can create the illusion that mistakes are no longer possible. Maintaining discipline after success is just as important as maintaining discipline after failure.

Market technology changes; human psychology doesn’t

Markets, financial instruments and technology continue to evolve, but fear, greed, hope, impatience and overconfidence remain familiar forces. That is why many of the psychological lessons associated with Livermore continue to resonate with investors today.

My View of Livermore’s Lessons

I’ve come to see Livermore’s approach as being less about predicting the market and more about discipline, patience, and controlling my own behavior. I need to respect the market’s direction, wait for confirmation, cut losses when I’m wrong, and give profitable positions room to develop.

I’ve also learned that human psychology hasn’t changed. Fear, greed, hope and overconfidence can influence investors just as much today as they did during Livermore’s era.

The biggest lesson for me is that having a good strategy isn’t enough—I have to follow it consistently. Avoiding tips, resisting the temptation to average down, limiting unnecessary trading, and remaining disciplined after both wins and losses can be more important than finding the perfect trade.

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated.

• Quant Weekly – Up over 68% since June 2025

• Quant 30 – Up over 65% since June 2025

• Legacy – Up over 340% since April 2023

• Changes to the main Quant Portfolios

• Top Quant Stocks – Top 10 Energy stocks

• Education – Jesse Livermore was a legendary American stock trader

USA Stock market week ending 08/07/26

• SPY (S&P 500 ETF):+3.5% — Large-cap U.S. stocks posted a strong weekly gain, extending the broader market’s upward momentum.

• DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF):+2.8% — Blue-chip stocks delivered a solid advance, reflecting broad-based strength across established companies.

• ^IXIC (Nasdaq Composite):+5.2% — Technology and growth stocks led the market higher, making the Nasdaq the week’s top-performing major index.

• IWM (Russell 2000 ETF):+3.6% — Small-cap stocks participated in the rally, finishing the week with healthy gains.

• SPMO (Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF):+4.0% — Momentum stocks outperformed the broader market, highlighting continued investor interest in market leaders.

Market Drivers this Week (08/10/26 – 08/14/26)

Monday, 8/10 — Quiet Start to the Week
No major U.S. economic reports are scheduled. Earnings from Simon Property Group offer a look at retail real estate.

Tuesday, 8/11 — Jobs, Housing, and AI Earnings
Investors will watch ADP employment data and Existing Home Sales. Earnings from Super Micro Computer, Lumentum, and Cardinal Health could provide insight into AI infrastructure demand and healthcare trends.

Wednesday, 8/12 — CPI Inflation Report
The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the week’s most important economic release and could influence expectations for future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. Coherent also reports earnings.

Thursday, 8/13 — PPI, Jobless Claims, and Applied Materials
Markets will focus on the Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly jobless claims for additional inflation and labor market signals. Applied Materials headlines earnings with an important update on semiconductor equipment demand.

Friday, 8/14 — Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment
The week concludes with July Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, providing a final read on consumer spending and confidence.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at 64, in the Greed area. This makes the first week in the last nine weeks where the indicator has closed the week in the Greed area. The last Greed reading was June 2, 2026. With the war in the Middle East still unresolved, it is premature to put much meaning on one reading. External events could easily send the market up or down depending on the news. But it is an encouraging sign.

The Quant Model Portfolios were up this week mirroring the general rise in the market. Momentum stocks bounced back after being sold off in the last few weeks.

Read more

• Quant Weekly – Up over 68% since June 2025

• Quant 30 – Up over 65% since June 2025

• Legacy – Up over 340% since April 2023

• Education – Leopold Aschenbrenner and the Situational Awareness disaster

USA Stock market week ending 08/07/26

• SPY (S&P 500 ETF):+3.5% — Large-cap U.S. stocks posted a strong weekly gain, extending the broader market’s upward momentum.

• DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF):+2.8% — Blue-chip stocks delivered a solid advance, reflecting broad-based strength across established companies.

• ^IXIC (Nasdaq Composite):+5.2% — Technology and growth stocks led the market higher, making the Nasdaq the week’s top-performing major index.

• IWM (Russell 2000 ETF):+3.6% — Small-cap stocks participated in the rally, finishing the week with healthy gains.

• SPMO (Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF):+4.0% — Momentum stocks outperformed the broader market, highlighting continued investor interest in market leaders.

Market Drivers this Week (08/10/26 – 08/14/26)

Monday, 8/10 — Quiet Start to the Week
No major U.S. economic reports are scheduled. Earnings from Simon Property Group offer a look at retail real estate.

Tuesday, 8/11 — Jobs, Housing, and AI Earnings
Investors will watch ADP employment data and Existing Home Sales. Earnings from Super Micro Computer, Lumentum, and Cardinal Health could provide insight into AI infrastructure demand and healthcare trends.

Wednesday, 8/12 — CPI Inflation Report
The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the week’s most important economic release and could influence expectations for future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. Coherent also reports earnings.

Thursday, 8/13 — PPI, Jobless Claims, and Applied Materials
Markets will focus on the Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly jobless claims for additional inflation and labor market signals. Applied Materials headlines earnings with an important update on semiconductor equipment demand.

Friday, 8/14 — Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment
The week concludes with July Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, providing a final read on consumer spending and confidence.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at 64, in the Greed area. This makes the first week in the last nine weeks where the indicator has closed the week in the Greed area. The last Greed reading was June 2, 2026. With the war in the Middle East still unresolved, it is premature to put much meaning on one reading. External events could easily send the market up or down depending on the news. But it is an encouraging sign.

The Quant Model Portfolios were up this week mirroring the general rise in the market. Momentum stocks bounced back after being sold off in the last few weeks.

Note: You are reading the free subscriber newsletter. Paid subscribers enjoy instant access to weekly Model Portfolio updates upon release. Free subscribers get access to Portfolio updates after a three-week delay. Want timely access to the new Adds/Removes?

Subscribe now

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly

Any newly added stock is being released to Paid Subscribers today. Below are the updates from three weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to significantly outperform its benchmark, 68% versus 25%. It has 28 members.

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

Add (07/17/26) : None

Outperformers: SSRM (SSR Mining) up over +90%, MU (Micron Technology) up over +450%, TTMI (TTM Technologies) up over +120%, CLS (Celestica) up over +50%

Model Portfolio Quant 30

This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made three weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 65% to 25%. It has 30 members in it.

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

Add (07/17/26): None

Remove (07/17/26): None

Outperformers: MU (Micron Technology) up over +610%, LITE (Lumentum Holdings) up over +270%, TTMI (TTM Technologies) up over +90%, BTSG (BrightSpring Health) up over +180% and SNDK (Sandisk) up over +90%

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy

The portfolio is up over +340% since it began in 2023. It has 17 stocks in it. Powell industries is now a 10 bagger. Celestica is now a 12 bagger

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

Remove (07/17/26): None

Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over +700%, STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over +800%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over +1000% and CLS (Celestica) is up over +1200%

Model Portfolio Quant Top Stock

This new Portfolio adds one new stock a week. A separate email is sent on Thursday morning detailing the selection, a shallow dive on the pros and cons of the stock and the criteria used for the Portfolio.

Add: NESR (National Energy Services) – Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Performance to 08-07-2026

Top Quant Stocks for this week – (Paid subscribers only feature)

Paid subscribers were presented with a list of the Top 10 Energy Stocks today.

Top 10 Energy stocks were last presented on 5/22/26. Since then as a group they were up an average of +4%. The XLE Energy ETF had a loss of -3%.

Leopold Aschenbrenner and the Situational Awareness disaster

Situational Awareness, the hedge fund launched by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, is scrambling to unwind a large portion of its portfolio after suffering heavy losses tied to AI stocks and a failed short bet against software companies, according to sources familiar with the situation.

People close to the matter say the fund’s prime brokers have been racing to raise cash in order to satisfy margin requirements. Citadel, the hedge fund run by Ken Griffin, has reportedly struck an agreement to purchase Situational Awareness’s publicly traded holdings.

The losses stemmed from two directions at once: the fund’s bets on AI infrastructure names like SK Hynix lost value, while its short positions against software companies such as Adobe moved sharply in the wrong direction, sources said.

At its peak in early July, the fund had swelled to roughly $45 billion in assets before the losses began mounting, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

Major prime brokers — including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase — have reportedly been assisting the fund in either meeting its margin calls or unwinding positions in a controlled manner.

The full picture remains unclear. It’s not confirmed whether asset sales alone have been enough to cover the fund’s margin obligations. There had also been talks to sell off the firm’s Anthropic stake, though it’s uncertain whether that deal closed — a spokesperson for the firm denied reports that an Anthropic stake sale was being marketed.

This episode marks an early and consequential challenge to the investment strategy that turned the 25-year-old Aschenbrenner into one of the most watched figures in AI investing — a thesis centered on the belief that increasingly capable AI systems would drive massive demand for chips, memory, data centers, and power infrastructure.

Regulatory filings show the fund’s biggest positions as of the end of Q1 included Nebius Group, SanDisk, Micron, and CoreWeave — all four of which have fallen more than 35% in July alone.

Aschenbrenner first drew widespread attention in 2024 after publishing a series of essays arguing that AI’s rapid progress would demand a massive buildout of computing infrastructure, chips, memory, and energy capacity. That thinking became the founding premise behind Situational Awareness after he departed OpenAI.

A Columbia University graduate who finished as valedictorian at just 19, Aschenbrenner went on to join OpenAI’s Superalignment team before being dismissed in 2024. OpenAI cited an improper disclosure of internal information as the reason. Aschenbrenner has pushed back on that account, saying he merely shared a mostly non-confidential planning document with external researchers for feedback, and has suggested his firing was connected to concerns he raised internally about the company’s security practices — a claim OpenAI has denied, maintaining the two issues were unrelated.

My View – Investment Lesson: Great Ideas Still Need Great Risk Management

The collapse of Situational Awareness is a reminder that having a strong investment thesis isn’t enough. Leopold Aschenbrenner correctly identified AI infrastructure as a major long-term trend, but heavy leverage and concentrated positions left the fund vulnerable when the market moved against it.

As AI-related stocks declined and the fund’s short positions in software companies rose, margin calls forced the liquidation of positions at exactly the wrong time. That’s one of the biggest dangers of borrowing to invest—you may be right in the long run but still be forced to sell before your thesis has a chance to play out.

For individual investors, the lesson is straightforward: protect your downside first. Diversification, reasonable position sizes, and avoiding excessive leverage may not produce the fastest gains, but they greatly improve your chances of surviving market corrections and benefiting from long-term compounding.

Successful investing isn’t just about finding the next great opportunity—it’s about managing risk well enough to stay invested when opportunities eventually pay off.

Quick Links

See comment.

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated.

• Selection for this week

• Some Pros about the stock

• Some Cons about the stock

• Criteria for choosing

• The previous selections

The momentum stocks in the portfolio had modest gains as a whole since last Thursday as the market pressure on this type of stock eased a bit. All the stocks selected so far continue to enjoy strong backing from the Quant system.

Add: NESR (National Energy Services) – Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

What does the company do?

National Energy Services Reunited (NESR) provides oilfield services across the Middle East and North Africa. Founded in 2017 and headquartered in Houston, Texas, the company offers drilling, hydraulic fracturing, cementing, coiled tubing, well testing, production optimization, and other integrated energy services that support oil and gas exploration, development, and production.

Why Some Investors Are Bullish

Record Q1 2026 results validate the company’s growth strategy.
NESR reported record Q1 2026 revenue of $404.6 million, up 33.5% year over year, while net income more than doubled sequentially and increased 129% from a year earlier. Results exceeded analyst expectations, demonstrating the company is successfully converting its backlog into strong earnings growth.

The Jafurah contract provides a long-term growth catalyst.
NESR secured a multiyear, multibillion-dollar hydraulic fracturing contract for Saudi Arabia’s Jafurah field—the largest single service award in the sector’s history. The project strengthens the company’s long-standing relationship with Saudi Aramco and provides years of revenue visibility.

Strong competitive position and robust project pipeline.
NESR has become one of the leading independent oilfield service providers in the Middle East and North Africa, supported by an approximately $3 billion tender pipeline and major awards across Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and North Africa. Long-term contracts, typically lasting three to nine years, provide greater revenue visibility than many oilfield service peers.

Strong earnings outlook supports continued growth.
Analysts expect solid earnings growth over the next two years as large projects ramp and existing contracts expand. While valuation should always be considered alongside future execution, continued analyst price target increases reflect confidence in the company’s long-term business outlook.

Improving balance sheet and shareholder returns.
NESR has significantly reduced net debt, strengthened liquidity, and continues to prioritize cash generation. Management has also announced a quarterly dividend and a $50 million share repurchase program while continuing to invest in future growth.

What Bears Are Worried About

Operations remain concentrated in the Middle East and North Africa.
NESR generates most of its revenue from the MENA region, leaving the company exposed to geopolitical tensions, commodity price fluctuations, and regional disruptions that could affect operations.

Quarterly results can be uneven.
Revenue and earnings may fluctuate as large projects transition between phases and contract timing shifts. Investors should expect some variability in quarterly results despite the company’s positive long-term growth trajectory.

Cash flow depends on customer payment timing.
Working capital can fluctuate because payments from national oil companies are sometimes delayed. This can temporarily pressure free cash flow and affect the timing of shareholder return programs.

Large project execution carries risk.
The Jafurah project is still in its ramp-up phase, making efficient execution critical to maintaining margins. Large integrated projects can also result in unexpected mobilization costs or other one-time expenses.

High expectations leave less room for disappointment.
Following the stock’s significant rally, investor expectations have increased substantially. Future performance will likely depend on NESR successfully executing large projects, meeting earnings expectations, and navigating geopolitical and operational risks without major setbacks.

My View

I’ve become increasingly interested in NESR because it continues to deliver strong execution, record results, and a growing pipeline of long-term contracts. I like its leadership position in the Middle East, improving balance sheet, and commitment to returning capital to shareholders. I also recognize the risks, including regional exposure, project execution, and high investor expectations after the stock’s strong rally. For me, the long-term opportunity depends on management continuing to execute and grow earnings.

The Quant system has a high opinion of this stocks future prospects. It is giving its highest rank to metrics PEG Non-GAAP (FWD), Revenue Growth (FWD), EPS FWD Long Term Growth (3-5Y CAGR) and ROE Growth (FWD). The 1Y Price Performance is +321% and FY1 Up Revisions (last 90 days) has 6 analysts and no analysts down revisions for FY1.

Top Quant Stock of the Week Criteria

I am using a Quantitative research platform that provides a daily list of top-ranked stocks to buy or sell, based on a Comprehensive Quant Score. This Quant system uses computer algorithms to come up with its rankings. This score incorporates multiple factors, including valuation, growth, profitability, momentum, and EPS revisions.

I will be giving heavy weight to strong momentum and strong EPS revisions to make the weekly selection. Then, I will use my tested proprietary criteria to sort and then break any tie.

One stock will be selected each week. That would make 52 selections a year if I don’t miss any weeks because of internet problems.

The hold times for the stocks added will be 1 week to years. Although a 1 week hold would be rare, it could happen if the stocks Quant metrics took a big nose dive right after being selected. If an added stock maintains its good metrics, it will be kept in the portfolio until it doesn’t. No time limit. The Quant system will tell me when it is time to let it go. So the hold time is short, medium and long depending on the Quant system metrics.

All countries are included. ADR’s are ok but Pink Sheet stocks will not be allowed.

Certain Industries are excluded. My testing shows they do not perform well using Quantitative rankings. Two of the main ones are BioTechnology and Pharmacueticals.

The Remove Criteria: Once the stock no longer qualifies to be retained in the Portfolio, it will be removed. This could be because the companies metrics have deteriorated since selection, it is involved in a buyout or financial reporting problems.

Once a stock has been added to the Active list, it will not be added to. No doubling down.

The stocks considered are larger small cap, mid cap, large cap and Mega cap. They will be fairly easy to trade with opening or closing market orders as one of the ways to enter and exit positions.

It should be expected that about 50 stocks will be Active in the Portfolio in any given week, once it gets to the two year mark.

All stocks are added as equal weight. No rebalancing is to occur.

To be considered for addition, the stock has to be in the top group of Quant rankings for just several weeks. This is to allow newly upgraded stocks to qualify quickly. Hopefully, this will catch a couple of strong momentum stocks early in their move.

Once a stock is removed for cause, it can be added back in once it meets the add criteria. No waiting period is required.

There will be no limits on percentages of stocks in the Portfolio by Sector or Industry.

Previous Selections:

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated.

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• Quant Weekly – Up over 57% since June 2025

• Quant 30 – Up over 59% since June 2025

• Legacy – Up over 340% since April 2023

• Changes to the main Quant Portfolios

• Top Quant Stocks – IT minus semiconductors

• Education – Leopold Aschenbrenner and the Situational Awareness disaster

USA Stock market week ending 07/31/26

• SPY (S&P 500 ETF): +1.1% – The broad U.S. market posted a solid weekly gain, continuing its upward trend.

• NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC): +1.6% – Technology and growth stocks led the major indexes higher for the week.

• DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF): +1.1% – Blue-chip stocks matched the S&P 500 with a steady weekly advance.

• IWM (Russell 2000 ETF): +0.0% – Small-cap stocks finished the week essentially unchanged, lagging the larger-cap indexes.

• SPMO (Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF): -1.8% – Momentum stocks underperformed the broader market, giving back ground despite gains in the major indexes.

Market Drivers this Week (08/03/26 – 08/07/26)

Monday, 8/3 — Manufacturing Data & Palantir

• Final July Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Index, and June Construction Spending are released.

• Earnings include Marriott, Tyson Foods, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, ON Semiconductor, and Palantir Technologies after the close.

Tuesday, 8/4 — Jobs Data & AMD

• June Trade Balance, Factory Orders, and JOLTS Job Openings highlight the economic calendar.

• Earnings include Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Booking Holdings, Prudential Financial, Wynn Resorts, and DaVita.

Wednesday, 8/5 — ISM Services & Major Earnings

• The ISM Services PMI provides an update on the U.S. services sector.

• Earnings include Caterpillar, McDonald’s, Merck, Walt Disney, Eli Lilly, Costco, and Kraft Heinz.

Thursday, 8/6 — Jobless Claims

• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, productivity, and labor cost data are released.

• Earnings include Uber, Shopify, eBay, Western Digital, SanDisk, Novo Nordisk, and Manulife Financial.

Friday, 8/7 — July Employment Report

• The July Jobs Report takes center stage as the week’s most important economic release.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at 42 in the Fear area. This makes eight weeks out of the last nine weeks in the Fear area. Risk off is firmly in control of the stock market right now.

The Quant Model Portfolios were lower last week following the general trend of the Momentum stocks which are still dropping. I hope investors took advantage of the lower prices on some of the best performing stocks in the the Model Portfolios, to add to current positions.

Read more

• Quant Weekly – Up over 57% since June 2025

• Quant 30 – Up over 59% since June 2025

• Legacy – Up over 340% since April 2023

• Education – Top 10 Bad Habits of Investors

USA Stock market week ending 07/31/26

• SPY (S&P 500 ETF): +1.1% – The broad U.S. market posted a solid weekly gain, continuing its upward trend.

• NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC): +1.6% – Technology and growth stocks led the major indexes higher for the week.

• DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF): +1.1% – Blue-chip stocks matched the S&P 500 with a steady weekly advance.

• IWM (Russell 2000 ETF): +0.0% – Small-cap stocks finished the week essentially unchanged, lagging the larger-cap indexes.

• SPMO (Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF): -1.8% – Momentum stocks underperformed the broader market, giving back ground despite gains in the major indexes.

Market Drivers this Week (08/03/26 – 08/07/26)

Monday, 8/3 — Manufacturing Data & Palantir

• Final July Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Index, and June Construction Spending are released.

• Earnings include Marriott, Tyson Foods, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, ON Semiconductor, and Palantir Technologies after the close.

Tuesday, 8/4 — Jobs Data & AMD

• June Trade Balance, Factory Orders, and JOLTS Job Openings highlight the economic calendar.

• Earnings include Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Booking Holdings, Prudential Financial, Wynn Resorts, and DaVita.

Wednesday, 8/5 — ISM Services & Major Earnings

• The ISM Services PMI provides an update on the U.S. services sector.

• Earnings include Caterpillar, McDonald’s, Merck, Walt Disney, Eli Lilly, Costco, and Kraft Heinz.

Thursday, 8/6 — Jobless Claims

• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, productivity, and labor cost data are released.

• Earnings include Uber, Shopify, eBay, Western Digital, SanDisk, Novo Nordisk, and Manulife Financial.

Friday, 8/7 — July Employment Report

• The July Jobs Report takes center stage as the week’s most important economic release.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at 42 in the Fear area. This makes eight weeks out of the last nine weeks in the Fear area. Risk off is firmly in control of the stock market right now.

The Quant Model Portfolios were lower last week following the general trend of the Momentum stocks which are still dropping. I hope investors took advantage of the lower prices on some of the best performing stocks in the the Model Portfolios, to add to current positions.

Note: You are reading the free subscriber newsletter. Paid subscribers enjoy instant access to weekly Model Portfolio updates upon release. Free subscribers get access to Portfolio updates after a three-week delay. Want timely access to the new Adds/Removes? Subscribe

No changes to the three main Model Portfolios for two weeks straight now. Upcoming earnings reports should start to see some changes in the Quant ratings and this should increase the turnover in the Quant 30 Portfolio.

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly

Any newly added stock is being released to Paid Subscribers today. Below are the updates from three weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to significantly outperform its benchmark, 57% versus 21%. It has 28 members.

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

Add (07/10/26) : None

Outperformers: SEZL (Sezzle) up over +72%, MU (Micron Technology) up over +420%, TTMI (TTM Technologies) up over +80%, CLS (Celestica) up over +50%

Model Portfolio Quant 30

This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made three weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 59% to 21%. It has 30 members in it.

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

Add (07/10/26): None

Remove (07/10/26): None

Outperformers: MU (Micron Technology) up over +570%, LITE (Lumentum Holdings) up over +190%, TTMI (TTM Technologies) up over +60%, BTSG (BrightSpring Health) up over +160% and SNDK (Sandisk) up over +90%

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy

The portfolio is up over +340% since it began in 2023. It has 17 stocks in it. Powell industries is now a 10 bagger. Celestica is now a 13 bagger

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

Remove (07/10/26): None

Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over +700%, STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over +900%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over +1000% and CLS (Celestica) is up over +1300%

Model Portfolio Quant Top Stock

This new Portfolio adds one new stock a week. A separate email is sent on Thursday morning detailing the selection, a shallow dive on the pros and cons of the stock and the criteria used for the Portfolio.

Add: SEZL (Sezzle) – Transaction & Payment Processing Services

Performance to 07-31-2026

Top Quant Stocks for this week – (Paid subscribers only feature)

Paid subscribers were presented with a list of the Top 10 IT excluding semiconductors today.

Top 10 Bad Habits of Investors

Checking your portfolio obsessively.
Constant checking turns investing into an emotional rollercoaster and makes ordinary volatility feel urgent when it’s just noise. This trains your brain to associate investing with anxiety, making panic-selling far more likely. I try to avoid that by limiting the amount of times I check my portfolios in a week.

Chasing whatever has been hot recently.
Buying after a big run means entering after the easy gains are gone, often right as momentum fades. Recency bias — assuming recent performance will continue — has fueled every major bubble in market history.

Trading too frequently.
Excessive trading racks up costs, spreads, and taxes that quietly drag down returns. Studies consistently show the most active traders significantly underperform the least active ones. That is why I practice Position Trading. Buy/Sell for medium and long term.

Having no exit strategy.
Most investors plan what to buy but never plan when to sell, leaving decisions to emotion in the moment. This leads to holding winners too long or panic-selling temporary dips. I have written rules that guide when I will sell a stock. I keep to it at all times.

Letting fear and greed drive decisions.
Buying at euphoric tops and selling at panicked bottoms is the most reliable way to buy high and sell low. This emotional whipsaw is the natural human response to volatility — and it’s precisely backward.

Confusing a company you like with a good investment.
Buying stock just because you love the product skips the actual work of evaluating financial soundness and valuation. Familiarity bias also makes it psychologically hard to sell when fundamentals turn.

Refusing to admit mistakes.
Holding a loser indefinitely to avoid “locking in” a loss ignores that only current price and future prospects matter — not what you originally paid. Loss aversion keeps investors anchored to bad positions far too long. I see many investors end up with a portfolio of losers having kept the losers and selling the winners. Index funds are a better option in that case.

Trying to time the market.
Timing requires being right twice, consistently — nearly impossible even for professionals. Missing just the ten best trading days in a decade can cut long-term returns in half. I have learned over the years that the market moves up in sudden jumps. Especially when it bounces up from a sell-off.

Anchoring to arbitrary price points.
Refusing to sell until “it gets back to even,” or refusing to buy because “it’s already up so much,” both treat irrelevant past prices as meaningful. The market doesn’t care what you paid — only current value matters. I have learned the hard way that hanging on to losers because I don’t want to admit I screwed up, is self defeating and leads to underperformance.

Comparing your portfolio to others.
Benchmarking against a friend’s lucky win or an influencer’s highlight reel creates pressure to abandon a sound strategy for FOMO. You never see the risk, losses, or luck behind someone else’s results — only the parts they choose to share.

Quick Links

See comment.

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated.

• Selection for this week

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• Some Pros about the stock

• Some Cons about the stock

• Criteria for choosing

• The previous selections

The momentum stocks powering this portfolio took another hit since last thursday. The stocks fundamentals have not changed only the current market view of the fast growing stocks has, for now, been much more negative. The market view comes and goes like the seasons. This is the time where conviction in an investment strategy gets tested. This is also a time when adding to favorite positions when they are in the Wall Street doghouse pays off big time down the road.

Add: SEZL (Sezzle) – Transaction & Payment Processing Services

What does the company do?

Founded in 2016 and headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota, Sezzle Inc. is a fintech company that provides Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) payment solutions in the U.S. and Canada. Its platform offers installment payment options, virtual payment cards, subscription services, digital wallets, credit-building features, and long-term lending partnerships for consumers.

Why Some Investors Are Bullish

Exceptional profitability with a strong balance sheet

Sezzle generates very high returns on capital, carries low debt (debt/equity ~0.8x), has a strong current ratio (~3.9), and produces healthy free cash flow. An EV/FCF of roughly 18x suggests the stock is reasonably valued relative to its cash generation.

Expanding beyond Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL)

Sezzle is evolving into a broader fintech platform with products such as Pay-in-5, rewards, cashback, subscriptions, and AI-powered shopping tools. This diversification reduces reliance on BNPL alone while creating additional revenue opportunities.

Strong execution has earned Wall Street’s attention

Throughout 2026, analysts repeatedly raised price targets as Sezzle exceeded expectations with accelerating growth, improving margins, and disciplined underwriting.

What Bears Are Worried About

Valuation has become more demanding

After a sharp share-price rally, several analysts downgraded the stock based primarily on valuation rather than deteriorating fundamentals, suggesting much of the near-term upside may already be reflected in the stock price.

BNPL remains a competitive and regulated industry

Sezzle faces competition from larger fintech companies, ongoing credit risk, and potential regulatory changes that could slow growth or pressure margins.

My View

I’ve found Sezzle attractive because it combines strong profitability, healthy cash flow, and a solid balance sheet while expanding beyond BNPL into a broader fintech platform. I also recognize that after its strong stock price run, valuation, industry competition, regulation, and share-price volatility are risks I need to consider before investing.

Top Quant Stock of the Week Criteria

I am using a Quantitative research platform that provides a daily list of top-ranked stocks to buy or sell, based on a Comprehensive Quant Score. This Quant system uses computer algorithms to come up with its rankings. This score incorporates multiple factors, including valuation, growth, profitability, momentum, and EPS revisions.

I will be giving heavy weight to strong momentum and strong EPS revisions to make the weekly selection. Then, I will use my tested proprietary criteria to sort and then break any tie.

One stock will be selected each week. That would make 52 selections a year if I don’t miss any weeks because of internet problems.

The hold times for the stocks added will be 1 week to years. Although a 1 week hold would be rare, it could happen if the stocks Quant metrics took a big nose dive right after being selected. If an added stock maintains its good metrics, it will be kept in the portfolio until it doesn’t. No time limit. The Quant system will tell me when it is time to let it go. So the hold time is short, medium and long depending on the Quant system metrics.

All countries are included. ADR’s are ok but Pink Sheet stocks will not be allowed.

Certain Industries are excluded. My testing shows they do not perform well using Quantitative rankings. Two of the main ones are BioTechnology and Pharmacueticals.

The Remove Criteria: Once the stock no longer qualifies to be retained in the Portfolio, it will be removed. This could be because the companies metrics have deteriorated since selection, it is involved in a buyout or financial reporting problems.

Once a stock has been added to the Active list, it will not be added to. No doubling down.

The stocks considered are larger small cap, mid cap, large cap and Mega cap. They will be fairly easy to trade with opening or closing market orders as one of the ways to enter and exit positions.

It should be expected that about 50 stocks will be Active in the Portfolio in any given week, once it gets to the two year mark.

All stocks are added as equal weight. No rebalancing is to occur.

To be considered for addition, the stock has to be in the top group of Quant rankings for just several weeks. This is to allow newly upgraded stocks to qualify quickly. Hopefully, this will catch a couple of strong momentum stocks early in their move.

Once a stock is removed for cause, it can be added back in once it meets the add criteria. No waiting period is required.

There will be no limits on percentages of stocks in the Portfolio by Sector or Industry.

Previous Selections:

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated.