Quant Alpha’s II – Up over 45% since June 2025
Quant 30 – Up over 55% since June 2025
Quant Alpha’s – Legacy – Up over 270% since April 2023
Education – Rising Treasury Yields and U.S. Debt: What Investors Should Know
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USA Stock market week ending 10/30/26
SPY (S&P 500): -0.6% — The S&P 500 declined modestly, extending pressure on large-cap stocks.
DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average): -0.8% — The Dow finished lower, slightly underperforming the S&P 500.
^IXIC (Nasdaq Composite): -2.0% — The Nasdaq posted the largest decline among the major indexes, reflecting weakness in technology and growth stocks.
IWM (Russell 2000): +1.3% — Small-cap stocks bucked the broader market trend, posting the strongest weekly gain.
SPMO (Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF): -1.7% — Momentum stocks struggled, underperforming the broader S&P 500.
Market Drivers this Week (11/2/26 –11/6/26)
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 2
10:00 a.m. ET: ISM Manufacturing PMI (October), providing an update on factory activity.
After the close: Apple (AAPL) and Palantir (PLTR) report earnings. Both companies are important indicators of technology spending and AI demand. Conference calls are scheduled for 5:00 p.m. ET.
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3
Midterm Election Day: All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships are up for election. The results could influence expectations for future tax, spending and regulatory policies.
10:00 a.m. ET: JOLTS Job Openings (September).
Before the open: Pfizer (PFE) and Shopify (SHOP).
After the close: AMD (AMD), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Arista Networks (ANET) and Booking Holdings (BKNG). Investors will be watching closely for updates on AI infrastructure, data-center spending and technology demand.
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 4
8:15 a.m. ET: ADP Private Employment Report.
10:00 a.m. ET: ISM Services PMI (October), an important measure of activity across the services sector.
Before the open: Uber (UBER), Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Datadog (DDOG).
After the close: Qualcomm (QCOM), Arm Holdings (ARM), AppLovin (APP) and CAVA (CAVA).
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5
7:00 a.m. ET: Bank of England interest-rate decision.
8:30 a.m. ET: Weekly Jobless Claims and third-quarter productivity data.
Before the open: ConocoPhillips (COP).
After the close: Airbnb (ABNB), Cloudflare (NET), Atlassian (TEAM), Affirm (AFRM) and IonQ (IONQ).
Friday - November 6
8:30 a.m. ET: October Employment Report. September payroll growth was just 29,000, with unemployment at 4.2%. Investors will be looking closely at job creation, wage growth and unemployment for clues about the economy and the Fed’s December interest-rate decision.
10:00 a.m. ET: Preliminary November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Before the open: Moderna (MRNA), Oklo (OKLO) and Humana (HUM).
The CNN Fear & Greed Index
The CNN Fear & Greed Index continues to reflect a deeply cautious investment environment, ending October 30 at 26 (Fear). Investor sentiment deteriorated significantly during October, with the index falling into Extreme Fear territory at 18 on October 16 and 21 on October 23, before recovering modestly. The index briefly reached Neutral territory at 45 on October 9 but has otherwise remained in Fear territory since early September. Compared with the Neutral reading of 54 on August 28, the latest reading represents a substantial decline in investor confidence.
10/30/26 – 26 Fear
10/23/26 – 21 Extreme Fear
10/16/26 – 18 Extreme Fear
10/9/26 – 45 Neutral
10/2/26 – 31 Fear
9/25/26 – 37 Fear
9/18/26 – 29 Fear
9/11/26 – 33 Fear
9/4/26 – 42 Fear
8/28/26 – 54 Neutral
The Quant Model Portfolios had a mostly flat week despite Risk Off firmly remaining in control in the stock market. With the USA mid-term elections fast approaching and the possibility of a renewed conflict in the middle east very real, it is wise to be cautious in the market. Look for attractive lower prices for your favorite stocks over the next few weeks.
Note: You are reading the free subscriber newsletter. Paid subscribers enjoy instant access to weekly Model Portfolio updates upon release. Free subscribers get access to Portfolio updates after a four week or more delay. Want timely access to the new Adds/Removes?
Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s II
This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. This Portfolio continues to significantly outperform its benchmark, 45% versus 21%. It has 31 members.
Model Portfolio Quant 30
This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 55% to 21%. It has 30 members in it.
Model Portfolio Dividend and Growth 25
This week’s new update if any is being released to the paid subscribers. The Portfolio is up +4% and the benchmark was up +3% since 9/28/26.
Model Portfolio Quant Top Stocks
The portfolio is -12% with the benchmark +2%.
A Thursday morning post will update the Adds and Removals for this Portfolio.
Added Thursday: NIQ (NIQ Global Intelligence plc)
Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy
The portfolio is up over +270% since it began in 2023. It has 17 stocks in it. Powell industries is now a 7 bagger. Celestica is now a 10 bagger
Performance to 10-30-2026
Rising Treasury Yields and U.S. Debt: What Investors Should Know
In his September 2026 memo, Shall We Repeal the Laws of Economics – Part III, Howard Marks argues that government efforts to push long-term Treasury yields lower through increased bond buybacks are unlikely to solve the underlying problem. He believes rising yields reflect deeper economic pressures, including persistent inflation, record federal debt, large budget deficits, growing interest expenses, and intense competition for capital from AI infrastructure investments. Government intervention may temporarily lower yields, but without addressing these fundamental forces, the relief may prove short-lived.
Marks views America’s fiscal outlook as a growing long-term concern rather than an imminent debt-default crisis. Because U.S. debt is denominated in dollars and the dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency, he believes the greater risk is a gradual loss of purchasing power and investor confidence. He argues that a durable solution requires greater fiscal discipline, stronger revenue growth, spending restraint, and productivity improvements.
Investment Takeaway
Marks cautions investors against automatically selling U.S. stocks simply because of Washington’s fiscal problems. He believes American companies retain significant competitive advantages, although investors should recognize the potential risks of higher interest rates and a weaker dollar. Diversification into non-dollar assets, gold, or international investments may offer some protection, but these alternatives introduce risks of their own. The central message: Investors cannot ignore the long-term consequences of excessive government borrowing, but abandoning U.S. assets wholesale may be an equally costly mistake.
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All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated.