Paid Subscriber - Market rebounds – Quant Portfolios make a large advance – Update 04/06/26

Update 4/06/26 - The Quant 30 and Quant Weekly Model Portfolios went from up 22% and 23% respectively to up 32% and 33%. An increase of 10 percentage points in one week.

• Quant 30 – Up over 32% since June 2025

• Quant Weekly – Up over 33% since June 2025

• Legacy – Up over 270% since April 2023

• Changes to the Quant Portfolios

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USA Stock market week ending 04/03/26

Major Index Performance (Weekly)

• S&P 500: +3.4% (weekly) — rebounded strongly after early-week weakness

• Nasdaq: +4.4% (weekly) — led gains, driven by tech strength

• Dow Jones: Solid weekly gain (+3.0%) — lagged slightly vs. Nasdaq

• Russell 2000: (+3.3%) Outperformed late week; positive overall — small caps showed relative strength

Takeaways

• Despite a weak start, markets staged a powerful rebound, with Nasdaq leading and small caps gaining momentum late.

• The week was dominated by geopolitical risk and oil prices, creating a split market: energy & defensives up, consumer sectors down.

• Overall tone: risk-on recovery with macro overhang still elevated.

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Market Drivers Next Week (04/06/26 – 04/10/26)

• Mon, Apr 6 — March Jobs Report Reaction: Markets finally react to Friday’s jobs data (released on Good Friday when markets were closed), with economists expecting 57,000 jobs added in March — a recovery from the prior month’s loss of 92,000 — and unemployment holding at 4.4%.

• Mon, Apr 6 — U.S.-Iran Diplomatic Deadline: The single most watched event of the week. President Trump set April 6 as the deadline for Iran diplomacy — a de-escalation could quickly reverse oil prices and ease inflation fears, while further escalation risks pushing crude even higher and deepening stagflation concerns.

• Ongoing — Oil Prices & Strait of Hormuz: Brent crude is trading above $110/barrel amid fears of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure. Energy is the standout sector of 2026, up over 41% YTD, while elevated oil prices continue to feed directly into headline inflation and weigh on consumer spending.

• Tue, Apr 7 — ISM Services PMI (March): A critical read on the health of the U.S. service sector — the dominant driver of domestic GDP — as analysts watch for signs that rising energy costs and softening consumer demand are beginning to bite.

• Wed, Apr 9 — FOMC Minutes Released: Markets will parse the minutes closely for signals on the Fed’s next move. Fed Chair Powell’s recent remarks that inflation expectations remain well anchored sparked a sharp reversal in rate expectations, with traders now pricing in modest rate cuts later in 2026 after briefly pricing in hikes.

• Thu, Apr 9 — Q4 2025 GDP Final Estimate: The third and final Q4 GDP reading gives the clearest picture of economic momentum heading into a turbulent 2026, and will inform how investors frame the stagflation vs. soft-landing debate.

• Thu, Apr 9 — February PCE Price Index: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is forecast to ease slightly to around 3.0%. As the last data point before the Iran conflict’s inflationary impact fully shows up in numbers, it serves as a key baseline for the Fed’s policy path.

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The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at Extreme Fear 15. This is the fourth week in row at the Extreme Fear level.

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The Quant 30 and Quant Weekly Model Portfolios went from up 22% and 23% respectively to up 32% and 33%. An increase of 10 percentage points in one week.

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