Paid Subscriber – Market tumbles – Quant Portfolios do too – Risk Off at extreme levels – Update 10/19/26

Housing and Consumer Demand: Is the U.S. Economy Losing Momentum?

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• Quant Alpha’s II – Up over 51% since June 2025

• Quant 30 – Up over 59% since June 2025

• Legacy – Up over 290% since April 2023

• Changes to the Quant Portfolios

• Education – Housing and Consumer Demand: Is the U.S. Economy Losing Momentum?

• Quick Links

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USA Stock market week ending 10/16/26

• SPY (S&P 500): -2.0% — Large-cap stocks declined over the week.

• ^IXIC (Nasdaq Composite): -4.4% — Technology-heavy stocks saw a sharp pullback.

• DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average): +0.6% — Blue-chip stocks posted a modest gain, outperforming the broader market.

• IWM (Russell 2000): -3.0% — Small-cap stocks weakened and underperformed large-cap shares.

• SPMO (S&P 500 Momentum ETF): -6.8% — Momentum stocks suffered the steepest decline among the listed indexes, signaling significant weakness among recent market leaders.

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Market Drivers this Week (10/19/26 – 10/23/26)

• Tuesday, 10/20 — September housing starts and building permits are scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by pending home sales at 10:00 a.m. Netflix reports after the close, with subscriber trends, advertising growth, and its outlook in focus. GE Aerospace, General Motors, and RTX also report.

• Wednesday, 10/21 — Tesla and Meta Platforms report third-quarter results after the close.

• Thursday, 10/22 — Valero Energy reports Q3 results before the market opens, offering an update on refining margins and fuel demand. Weekly jobless claims are due at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index at 10:00 a.m. and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey later in the morning.

• Friday, 10/23 — S&P Global’s U.S. flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs are scheduled for 9:45 a.m. ET, followed by the University of Michigan’s final October consumer-sentiment reading at 10:00 a.m. American Express and SLB also report earnings.

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The CNN Fear & Greed Index

The CNN Fear & Greed Index plunged to 18 (Extreme Fear) on October 16, down sharply from 45 (Neutral) the previous week, signaling a rapid deterioration in investor sentiment. This marks a 27-point weekly decline and a 47-point drop from the August 14 reading of 65 (Greed). Sentiment weakened steadily through late August and September, with the index remaining in Fear territory for five consecutive weeks before briefly recovering to Neutral on October 9. That rebound proved short-lived, with the latest reading indicating renewed anxiety among investors. Market sentiment has shifted decisively from Greed in August to Extreme Fear in mid-October, reflecting heightened caution and uncertainty.

• 10/16/26 – 18 Extreme Fear

• 10/9/26 – 45 Neutral

• 10/2/26 – 31 Fear

• 9/25/26 – 37 Fear

• 9/18/26 – 29 Fear

• 9/11/26 – 33 Fear

• 9/4/26 – 42 Fear

• 8/28/26 – 54 Neutral

• 8/21/26 – 55 Neutral

• 8/14/26 – 65 Greed

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The Quant Model Portfolios had a bad past week as the Risk Off trend deepened. The SPMO (S&P 500 Momentum ETF) was down -6.8% for the week as an example. Several of the best performers in the Quant Portfolios are well off their 52 week highs. For example: CLS -30%, POWL -50%, MU -30%, LITE -28% and SNDK -45%. As long of the companies continue to perform well as a business, the price will eventually fully reflect that. In the past these big panic sells hitting the fastest growing stocks, has been a good time to add to favorite positions.