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Paid Subscriber – Quant Portfolios stable – New Quant Dividend & Growth Portfolio members added – Update 10/05/26

Midterm Elections and the Stock Market: What History Shows

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Position Trader
Oct 05, 2026
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  • Quant Alpha’s II – Up over 75% since June 2025

  • Quant 30 – Up over 79% since June 2025

  • Legacy – Up over 330% since April 2023

  • Changes to the main Quant Portfolios

  • Top Quant Stocks – Top three Sectors, Top stock in each

  • Education – Midterm Elections and the Stock Market: What History Shows

  • Quant Dividend and Growth 25 Model Portfolio is launched last week.

  • Quant Top Stocks Model Portfolio is made a permanent member of the line-up.


Bar chart comparing performance of Quant Alpha's II and EQAL for 2025-2026, showing 75.09% for Quant Alpha's II and 19.38% for EQAL.

Last week, a new “Quant Dividend and Growth 25” Model Portfolio was added to the Quant lineup for Paid Subscribers. This will be a Growth and Income type of portfolio. It will have 25 stocks in it and will be reviewed and updated as needed each week.

This week, “Quant Top Stocks” will be made a permanent part of the Quant lineup. It will be tracked here each week. It’s details are available to all subscribers. A separate email is sent out each Thursday for this Portfolio.


USA Stock market week ending 10/02/26

  • SPY (S&P 500 ETF): -0.2% — The S&P 500 finished the week slightly lower. ^IXIC (Nasdaq Composite): +0.5% — Technology and growth stocks helped the Nasdaq finish modestly higher.

  • DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF): -1.2% — The Dow was the week’s weakest major index among those listed.

  • IWM (Russell 2000 ETF): -0.2% — Small-cap stocks edged lower, matching SPY’s weekly decline.

  • SPMO (Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF): +0.2% — Momentum stocks posted a modest weekly gain.


Market Drivers this Week (10/05/26 – 10/09/26)

  • Monday, 10/5 — September ISM Services PMI and final S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs are released, providing an important update on the strength of the U.S. services economy.

  • Tuesday, 10/6 — ADP weekly employment data and the August U.S. trade balance are scheduled, offering fresh readings on labor-market conditions and international trade.

  • Wednesday, 10/7 — The FOMC minutes from the September 15–16 meeting are released at 2:00 PM ET, giving investors additional insight into officials’ views on inflation, employment and monetary policy ahead of the October 27–28 meeting.

  • Thursday, 10/8 — Initial and continuing jobless claims and wholesale-trade data are released.

  • Friday, 10/9 — Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations are released at 10:00 AM ET. Delta Air Lines (DAL) reports its September-quarter results before the market opens.


The CNN Fear & Greed Index

Investor sentiment has shifted noticeably toward caution over the past 10 weeks. The index reached Greed territory in early and mid-August, with readings of 64 and 65, before falling into Neutral at 54–55 later that month. By September, sentiment had moved firmly into Fear, with readings ranging from 29 to 42, and the latest reading of 31 on October 2 remains in the Fear zone. The progression from 65 in August to 31 currently represents a 34-point decline, indicating that investor sentiment has deteriorated substantially even though the stock market itself has not experienced a comparable collapse.

  • 10/2/26 – 31 Fear

  • 9/25/26 – 37 Fear

  • 9/18/26 – 29 Fear

  • 9/11/26 – 33 Fear

  • 9/4/26 – 42 Fear

  • 8/28/26 – 54 Neutral

  • 8/21/26 – 55 Neutral

  • 8/14/26 – 65 Greed

  • 8/7/26 – 64 Greed

  • 7/31/26 – 42 Fear


The Quant Model Portfolios had a good week. Quant Alpha’s II moved from +76% to +75%, Quant 30 increased from +73% to +79% and Quant Alpha’s – Legacy increased from +323% to +331%. The two new Quant Portfolios, Quant Dividend and Growth 25 and Quant Top Stocks started being tracked this week and both show an initial small gain.

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