All Quant Portfolios shine as the market drops on AI related sector rotation.
USA Stock market last week 02/13/26
S&P 500 closed around 6,836.17, down about -1.4% on the week.
Nasdaq fell roughly -2.1% on the week.
Dow fell about -1.2% over the week.
Russell 2000 was down roughly -0.9% for the week.
Takeaways
Market trend: Mild negative performance across major indexes for the week.
Weakest sectors:Technology, software, and AI-linked names — hit by sector rotation and disruption concerns.
Relatively stronger areas:Financial/exchange stocks and certain defensive/value sectors showed relative resilience.
Small caps:Russell 2000 had a smaller decline, suggesting some support for smaller names despite broader weakness.
The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at Fear 36.
Market Drivers This Week (02/16/26 – 02/20/26)
Tue, Feb 17 – Retail Sales Report
Reflects consumer spending trends; strong sales can support cyclicals and risk assets.
Wed, Feb 18 – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Signals manufacturing strength; influences cyclical sectors and small caps.
Thu, Feb 19 – Housing Starts / Building Permits
Key indicator of housing demand and broader economic momentum.
Thu, Feb 19 – Fed Officials Speaking
Any shifts in commentary on inflation, rate expectations, or future guidance could move markets.
Fri, Feb 20 – Leading Economic Indicators (LEI)
A favorite for gauging near-term economic direction; impacts market sentiment and positioning.
Note: Choose between free and paid subscription levels. Paid subscribers enjoy instant access to weekly Portfolio updates upon release. Free subscribers access identical content, with Portfolio updates published after a two-week waiting period.
Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly
Any newly added stock is being released to Paid Subscribers today. Below are the updates from two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to significantly outperform its benchmark, 38% versus 16%.
One Add to the Portfolio this week
Add (01/30/26) : ENVA (Enova International)
Outperformers: CDE (Coeur Mining) up over 50%, MU (Micron Technology)up over 160%, VISN (Vistance Networks) up over +140%
Model Portfolio Quant 30
This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made two weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 35% to 16%.
No Adds for this update.
Add (01/30/26) :None
Remove (01/30/26) :None
Outperformers: MU (Micron Technology) up over 230%, GFI (Gold Fields) up over 120% and KGC (Kinross Gold) is up over 110%.
Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy
The portfolio now has around 19 stocks in it. It is up over +270% since it began in 2023. Celestica achieves a 10 bagger performance.
Remove (01/30/26): None
Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over 400%, PSIX (Power Solutions)up over 400%, STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over 600%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over 900% and CLS (Celestica) is up over 1000%
Performance to 02-13-2026
The Quant Alpha Weekly Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. Up over 38% since it began on June 27, 2025.
The Quant 30 Portfolio remains ahead of its benchmark. It is up 35% since it began on June 27, 2025.
The Quant Alpha’s – LegacyPortfolio maintained its over 270% return since April 2023, in a classic Position Trading Portfolio implementation.
What would be the impact to the US economy if the Strait of Hormuz was closed for one week?
Energy & Oil Markets
Oil prices would likely spike sharply (potentially $10–$25+ per barrel in days).
Roughly 20% of global oil supply passes through Hormuz — markets would price in supply risk immediately.
U.S. gasoline prices would jump, likely within days due to futures markets reacting first.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases could be considered to stabilize prices.
Inflation Impact
Short-term inflation bump, especially in energy, transportation, and logistics.
CPI expectations would rise, even if the disruption lasts only one week.
Could temporarily complicate Federal Reserve rate-cut timing.
Stock Market Reaction
Initial sell-off in equities, particularly:
Airlines
Transportation
Consumer discretionary
Rate-sensitive growth stocks
Energy stocks likely surge (oil producers, refiners, services).
Defensive sectors (utilities, staples) may outperform.
Interest Rates & Dollar
Treasury yields could initially fall on safe-haven buying.
U.S. dollar likely strengthens vs. risk currencies.
If oil spike persists, inflation fears could push longer-term yields back up.
Supply Chain & Trade
Short-term disruptions to global shipping routes.
Higher freight and insurance costs.
Limited direct U.S. import dependency vs Europe/Asia, but global ripple effects would be felt.
Broader Economic Growth
One-week closure alone likely does NOT cause recession.
If resolved quickly, impact would mostly be:
Sentiment shock
Temporary energy-driven price spike
Extended closure (multiple weeks) would materially slow global growth.
Geopolitical & Military Risk Premium
Risk premium added to oil for months afterward.
Defense stocks could rally.
Markets would watch for escalation in the Persian Gulf region.
Bottom Line
One week = market shock, energy spike, volatility. Multiple weeks = inflation surge, growth slowdown, potential recession risk.
All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated.
For a look at the live scorecard for Position Trader, see the google doc link below.
It has the Live performance numbers and some links back to more information about the three Quant stock Model Portfolio's.
https://live-scorecard.position-trader.com/