S&P 500 edges up – Risk off still rules – Quant Portfolios make all time highs – Update 06/15/26

How likely is the SpaceX stock price to close higher than the IPO price in 1 month?

• Quant Weekly – Up over 74% since June 2025

• Quant 30 – Up over 82% since June 2025

• Legacy – Up over 400% since April 2023

• Education – How likely is the SpaceX stock price to close higher than the IPO price in 1 month?

• Quick Links – At the bottom of the Post

USA Stock market week ending 06/12/26

• The S&P 500 (SPY) gained +0.6% from the close of 06/08/26 through the close of 06/12/26, posting a modest advance and extending its upward trend.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) rose +0.7%, delivering a solid week of gains among large-cap blue-chip stocks.

• The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) advanced +0.7%, matching the Dow’s performance and continuing to show strength in technology-oriented stocks.

• The Russell 2000 (IWM) surged +4.0%, significantly outperforming the major indexes and leading the market higher for the week.

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Market Drivers this Week (06/15/26 – 06/19/26)

Monday, June 15

• Industrial Production is scheduled for 9:15 AM ET on June 15.

Tuesday, June 16

• The FOMC meeting begins June 16 and concludes June 17.

• Housing Starts and Building Permits are legitimate reports to watch.

• A Bank of Japan policy decision around this timeframe is plausible.

Wednesday, June 17

• FOMC statement, dot plot, SEP, and press conference are scheduled for June 17.

Thursday, June 18

• Accenture (ACN) and Kroger (KR) are expected earnings releases for June 18.

• Weekly Jobless Claims are scheduled as usual.

Friday, June 19

• U.S. equity markets are closed for Juneteenth.

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The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at 34. In the Fear area. This is the second week in a row in the Fear area after seven weeks in a row in the Greed area. Risk off is still the dominant trend.

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The Quant Model Portfolios all closed higher. The Quant Weekly and Quant 30 both made new all time highs again. The Quant Legacy went back over +400% after dipping slightly below it last month. This is despite lackluster performance last week in the S&P 500.

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Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly

Any newly added stock is being released to Paid Subscribers today. Below are the updates from three weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to significantly outperform its benchmark, 74% versus 21%. It has 26 members.

VISN (Vistance Networks) has met the criteria for removal from the Portfolio. It was added on 7/10/25 and leaves the Portfolio with a +183% increase.

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

Add (05/22/26) : None

Remove (05/22/26) : VISN (Vistance Networks)

Outperformers: SSRM (SSR Mining) up over +60%, MU (Micron Technology) up over +520%, TTMI (TTM Technologies) up over +210%, CLS (Celestica) up over +90%

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Model Portfolio Quant 30

This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made three weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 82% to 21%. It has 30 members in it.

TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor) is leaving the Portfolio. It was added on 11/13/25 and exits at +43%. CDE (Coeur Mining) is leaving the Portfolio. It was added on 8/14/25 and exits at +52%.

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

Add (05/22/26): CNC (Centene Corp) Healthcare Plans, E (Eni S.p.A.) Oil & Gas Integrated , MYRG (MYR Group) Engineering & Construction

Remove (05/22/26): INNV (InnovAge Holding), TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor) and CDE (Coeur Mining)

Outperformers: MU (Micron Technology) up over +700%, LITE (Lumentum Holdings) up over +280%, TTMI (TTM Technologies) up over +170%, BTSG (BrightSpring Health) up over +180% and SNDK (Sandisk) up over +220%

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Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy

The portfolio is up over +400% since it began in 2023. It has 17 stocks in it. Powell industries is now a 15 bagger. Celestica is now a 15 bagger and now Sterling Infrastructure has become a 13 bagger.

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

Remove (05/22/26): None

Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over +800%, STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over +1300%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over +1500% and CLS (Celestica) is up over +1500%

Performance to 06-12-2026

Top Quant Stocks for this week – (Paid subscribers only feature)

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How likely is the SpaceX stock price to close higher than the IPO price in 1 month?

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If SpaceX IPOs at the currently discussed $135/share, many professional investors estimate the probability that it closes above the IPO price one month later at roughly 55%–65%.

That’s not because the business isn’t attractive. It’s because two powerful forces are pulling in opposite directions:

Factors Increasing the Odds

• Extraordinary investor demand. Reports indicate the offering is already oversubscribed, suggesting strong initial buying interest.

• Massive retail enthusiasm. SpaceX may allocate an unusually large percentage of shares to retail investors, which could create strong momentum during the first few weeks of trading.

• Elon Musk premium. SpaceX is arguably the most anticipated IPO in years, and investor enthusiasm alone can support prices in the short term.

• Potential index inclusion narrative. Investors may buy ahead of future inclusion in major indexes.

Factors Reducing the Odds

• Extremely rich valuation. Multiple analysts argue the proposed valuation leaves little room for error and may already reflect years of future success.

• IPO history is not favorable. Historical data shows IPOs often surge initially, but many fail to maintain those gains. Between 2011 and 2024, the average IPO gained 23% on day one but produced a slightly negative average return over the following year from the first-day close.

• High volatility expected. Analysts have specifically warned that the unusually large retail allocation could create significant price swings.

• Profitability concerns. Several analysts have questioned whether the valuation is justified relative to current earnings and cash flow.

Probability Estimate

What History Suggests

For a typical IPO, one might estimate only a 50–55% chance of being above the offering price after one month. SpaceX is different because:

• It has one of the strongest brands in the world.

• Demand appears exceptionally high.

• Retail participation is unusually large.

However, because the valuation is also unusually aggressive, it would be risky to assign probabilities much higher than 65%.

Bottom Line

If SpaceX prices near $135, the most likely outcome is that the stock is still above its IPO price one month later, but not by a huge margin. A base case would be something like $145–$175 after one month, with a meaningful risk of a pullback if investors begin focusing on valuation rather than excitement. The stock could certainly surge much higher, but the valuation already appears to embed a great deal of future success.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. High-momentum stocks can experience rapid volatility and changing market conditions.

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All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated.