S&P 500 leads the market down for the week – Quant portfolios drop too – Update 08/24/26

Oil Refining Outlook If Oil Stays Above $80 for Six Months

Position Trader

Aug 24, 2026

Quant Weekly – Up over 75% since June 2025
Quant 30 – Up over 65% since June 2025
Legacy – Up over 320% since April 2023
Education – Oil Refining Outlook If Oil Stays Above $80 for Six Months

USA Stock market week ending 08/21/26

SPY: -1.4% for the week, reflecting a pullback in the broader S&P 500 market.
^IXIC: -2.1%, making the Nasdaq the weakest of the major indexes listed here as growth stocks came under pressure.
DIA: -0.8%, showing a smaller decline than the broader market and Nasdaq.
IWM: -1.6%, Russell 2000 ETF
SPMO: -3.0%, indicating a substantially sharper pullback among momentum-oriented large-cap stocks.

Market Drivers this Week (08/24/26 – 08/28/26)

Monday, 8/24

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July) — Released at 8:30 AM ET, providing an early look at overall U.S. economic activity.

Tuesday, 8/25

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (June), New Home Sales (July), and Consumer Confidence (August) are scheduled, providing several important readings on housing and consumer conditions.
Earnings: Ulta Beauty, Workday, Affirm and Marvell Technology are scheduled to report after the close.

Wednesday, 8/26

NVIDIA reports Q2 fiscal 2027 results after the close, making it arguably the week’s most closely watched earnings report. NVIDIA has confirmed the results will cover the quarter ended July 26, with the conference call at 5:00 PM ET.
Durable Goods Orders, the second estimate of Q2 GDP, Personal Income and Spending, and PCE inflation data are also scheduled, making Wednesday an unusually busy economic-data day.

Thursday, 8/27

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims arrive at 8:30 AM ET, providing the latest snapshot of labor-market conditions.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (August) is scheduled at 11:00 AM ET, adding another regional manufacturing reading.
Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium begins Thursday and runs through Saturday, August 29.

Friday, 8/28

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole, with investors likely to focus closely on his comments about inflation, monetary policy and the outlook for interest rates.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment — August final, along with the 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations, is due at 10:00 AM ET.
BLS preliminary benchmark revisions to payroll employment are scheduled, providing an important reassessment of March 2026 employment levels based on more comprehensive data.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at 55. Just barely dropping out of the Greed area into the Neutral area. This is the third week in a row the index has been firmly out of the Fear area. The stock market remains choppy.

The Quant Model Portfolios gave up some of the gains made last week as the stock market dropped across the board with momentum stocks leading the way down. The mining stocks in the portfolios have been rallying hard in August and are providing some positive alpha. We currently have mining stocks Iamgold, B2Gold, Coeur Mining, Kinross Gold, Newmont and SSR Mining in the Quant Portfolios.

Note: You are reading the free subscriber newsletter. Paid subscribers enjoy instant access to weekly Model Portfolio updates upon release. Free subscribers get access to Portfolio updates after a three-week delay. Want timely access to the new Adds/Removes?

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly

Any newly added stock is being released to Paid Subscribers today. Below are the updates from three weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to significantly outperform its benchmark, 75% versus 26%. It has 29 members.

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

Add (07/31/26) : None

Outperformers: SSRM (SSR Mining) up over +130%, MU (Micron Technology) up over +510%, TTMI (TTM Technologies) up over +70%, PARR (Par Pacific Holdings) up over +90%

Model Portfolio Quant 30

This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made three weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 65% to 26%. It has 30 members in it.

UNFI (United Natural Foods) was added to the Portfolio on 11/13/25 and leaves the Portfolio +31%.

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

Add (07/31/26): VSXY (Victorias Secret) – Apparel Retail

Remove (07/31/26): UNFI (United Natural Foods)

Outperformers: MU (Micron Technology) up over +690%, LITE (Lumentum Holdings) up over +260%, CRDO (Credo Technology) up over +90%, BTSG (BrightSpring Health) up over +160% and SNDK (Sandisk) up over +150%

Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy

The portfolio is up over +320% since it began in 2023. It has 17 stocks in it. Powell industries is now a 11 bagger. Celestica is now a 13 bagger

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

Remove (07/31/26): None

Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over +600%, STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over +700%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over +1000% and CLS (Celestica) is up over +1100%

Model Portfolio Quant Top Stock

This new Portfolio adds one new stock a week. A separate email is sent on Thursday morning detailing the selection, a shallow dive on the pros and cons of the stock and the criteria used for the Portfolio.

Add: OSCR (Oscar Health) – Healthcare Plans

Performance to 08-21-2026

Top Quant Stocks for this week – (Paid subscribers only feature)

Paid subscribers were presented with a list of the Top 10 Consumer Discretionary stocks.

Oil Refining Outlook If Oil Stays Above $80 for Six Months

The most important thing to understand about refiners is that oil prices themselves don’t determine profitability—the crack spread does. The crack spread measures the difference between the cost of crude and the value of the gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other products a refinery produces.
So, if oil stays above $80 per barrel for six months, that isn’t necessarily bad news for refiners. What matters is whether refined-product prices remain high enough to preserve healthy margins.

Why a Stable $80+ Oil Price Could Still Be Positive for Refiners

Crack spreads matter more than the absolute price of crude. A refiner can potentially make strong profits with $80 oil if gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel prices remain sufficiently high relative to crude. Recent 2026 conditions illustrate this: U.S. refinery margins were elevated in Q2 as tight international product supplies pushed gasoline, distillate and jet-fuel crack spreads higher.
Refinery capacity remains relatively tight. U.S. operable refining capacity fell by more than 250,000 barrels per day during 2025, with the closures of the LyondellBasell Houston refinery and Phillips 66’s Los Angeles refinery accounting for roughly 400,000 barrels per day of lost capacity.
Global capacity growth is not keeping pace with product demand. Rystad expects global refinery capacity growth of less than 800,000 barrels per day in 2026 versus roughly 900,000 barrels per day of product-demand growth. It also notes that demand has outpaced capacity growth by roughly 400,000 barrels per day annually since 2023. That combination can support high utilization and elevated crack spreads.
Aerospace and diesel demand can be particularly important. The recent disruption to international petroleum-product flows pushed U.S. distillate and jet-fuel exports to unusually high levels in Q2 2026. EIA reported that U.S. distillate exports averaged 1.56 million barrels per day and jet-fuel exports 356,000 barrels per day during the quarter.
Refiners with access to cheaper crude can have an additional advantage. Regional crude-price differences can improve a refinery’s economics when it can purchase relatively inexpensive feedstock while selling products into markets where refined-product prices remain strong. This is another reason the absolute price of WTI or Brent isn’t enough to determine refinery profitability.

Where the Real Risk Is

A sustained $80 oil price isn’t automatically bullish. If gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel prices don’t rise along with crude, crack spreads can narrow and refinery margins can deteriorate. The key question is therefore not “Is oil above $80?” but “What happens to product prices relative to crude?”
Today’s unusually strong margins may not last. EIA has previously noted that tight inventories can push gasoline crack spreads higher in the near term, but expects margins to narrow as inventories rebuild and the summer driving season ends.
Supply disruptions can eventually reverse. The extraordinary refinery margins seen during Q2 were partly driven by disruptions to global crude and petroleum-product flows through the Strait of Hormuz. If those disruptions ease and global supplies normalize, some of the premium embedded in refined-product prices could disappear even if crude remains relatively expensive.
Refinery utilization matters. High utilization generally supports margins when product supply is tight, but refiners can also face maintenance, outages, labor issues and other operational problems that affect production and profitability.

My View

I’d focus less on whether oil stays above $80 and more on whether crack spreads remain strong. If product prices stay high relative to crude, refiners could continue generating strong profits; if spreads normalize, margins could fall even with $80+ oil.

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