S&P500 near all time highs – Quant portfolios make all time highs – Update 04/27/26

What would be the impact to the US economy if the Strait of Hormuz was closed for three months?

• Quant Weekly – Up over 54% since June 2025

• Quant 30 – Up over 55% since June 2025

• Legacy – Up over 290% since April 2023

• Education – What would be the impact to the US economy if the Strait of Hormuz was closed for three months?

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USA Stock market week ending 04/24/26

Major Index Performance (Weekly)

• SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): +0.5% Modest gain over the period, holding steady with limited upside momentum.

• Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC): +1.5% Led the market with the strongest relative performance and continued upside.

• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA): -0.4% The only major index to decline, showing relative weakness versus peers.

• iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM): +0.3% Slightly positive but lagging, with minimal follow-through.

Takeaways

• Nasdaq was the clear leader with the strongest gain

• S&P 500 and small caps posted only modest upside

• Dow lagged and finished negative, signaling relative weakness

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Market Drivers this Week (04/27/26 – 05/01/26)

• Monday Apr 27 — Consumer Check + Earnings Flood

• Consumer confidence drops plus a stacked lineup (Coke, Visa, UPS, Starbucks, etc.)

• This tells you right away if the consumer is still spending or starting to crack

• Tuesday–Wednesday Apr 28–29 — Bank of Japan Wildcard

• BOJ decision could shake the yen and mess with global markets

• If they move, it can ripple straight into U.S. stocks — we’ve seen that movie before

• Wednesday Apr 29 — Fed Decision (Main Event)

• Market expects a hold, but Powell’s words are everything

• No dot plot, so traders will dissect every sentence for rate-cut clues

• Wednesday Apr 29 — Mega-Cap Earnings Explosion

• Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta all report same night as the Fed

• Biggest question: is all that AI spending actually making money yet?

• Wednesday Apr 29 — Economic Data Dump

• Durable goods + housing data hit before the Fed

• Quick read on whether the economy is holding up or slowing

• Thursday Apr 30 — GDP (Biggest Risk of the Week)

• First look at Q1 growth — this can move the whole market fast

• Weak number = stagflation fears come right back

• Thursday Apr 30 — Inflation + Wages Combo

• PCE + Employment Cost Index drop right after the Fed

• If inflation runs hot, kiss those rate-cut hopes goodbye

• Thursday Apr 30 — Apple Earnings Spotlight

• iPhone demand, China growth, and AI monetization all in focus

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The CNN Fear and Greed Index ends the week at Greed 66. This is the 2nd week in row at the Greed setting. It was not too long ago that the Index was stuck in the Fear setting as the Middle East war dragged on. As it has moved up so has the market.

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The Quant 30, Quant Weekly and Quant Legacy Model Portfolios all made new highs again. The Quant 30 went from up 25% at the end of March to up 55% now. The Quant Weekly went from up 27% at the end of March to up 54% now. The Quant Legacy went from up 290% at the end of March to up 353% now. Momentum stocks have come roaring back and our three Portfolios, being filled with high quantity Momentum stocks, are leading the way up.

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Model Portfolio Quant Alpha Weekly

Any newly added stock is being released to Paid Subscribers today. Below are the updates from three weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to significantly outperform its benchmark, 54% versus 18%. It has 23 members.

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

No change to the Portfolio this week

Add (04/03/26) : None

Remove (04/03/26) : None

Outperformers: SSRM (SSR Mining) up over 80%, MU (Micron Technology) up over 210%, VISN (Vistance Networks) up over +140%

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Model Portfolio Quant 30

This week’s new update, if any, is being released to the paid subscribers. Shown below is the update made three weeks ago. This Portfolio continues to beat its benchmark by a wide margin, 55% to 18%. It has 30 members in it.

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

No changes to the Portfolio this week

Add (04/03/26): None

Remove (04/03/26): None

Outperformers: MU (Micron Technology) up over 300%, GFI (Gold Fields) up over 80%, LITE (Lumentum Holdings) up over 260% and KGC (Kinross Gold) is up over 100%.

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Model Portfolio Quant Alpha’s – Legacy

The portfolio is up over +290% since it began in 2023. It has around 18 stocks in it. Powell industries is now a 13 bagger. Celestica is now a 16 bagger.

Top five Quant stocks in the Portfolio (Paid subscribers only).

Remove (04/03/26): None

Outperformers: AGX (Argan) up over 800%, STRL (Sterling Infrastructure) up over 700%, POWL (Powell Industries) up over 1300% and CLS (Celestica) is up over 1600%

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Performance to 04-24-2026

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Up to 10 stocks each week from different areas of the market. Paid subscribers only.

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What would be the impact to the US economy if the Strait of Hormuz was closed for three months?

Energy & Oil Markets

• Severe supply shock: ~20% of global oil flows disrupted for an extended period → sustained global shortage

• Oil prices spike and stay elevated: Crude could surge well above $120–$150/barrel and remain volatile

• U.S. fuel prices jump sharply: Gasoline and diesel rise significantly nationwide, not just short-term spikes

• Strategic reserves likely tapped: U.S. may release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but only partially offsets disruption

• Energy sector windfall: U.S. oil & gas producers see massive earnings upside and increased drilling activity

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Inflation Impact

• Persistent inflation surge: Energy-driven inflation spreads into food, transportation, and goods

• CPI re-accelerates meaningfully: Could push inflation several percentage points higher during the period

• Second-order effects: Higher shipping and production costs ripple across the economy

• Consumer expectations rise: Inflation psychology worsens, making price pressures more entrenched

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Stock Market Reaction

• Initial sharp selloff: Broad indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq) likely drop significantly on shock and uncertainty

• Sector divergence:

  • Energy stocks rally hard

  • Airlines, transport, and consumer discretionary sell off

• Volatility spikes: Sustained uncertainty keeps VIX elevated for months

• Potential bear market risk: If prolonged, could push equities into a deeper correction or recession pricing

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Broader Economic Growth

• Growth slows materially: Higher energy costs act like a tax on businesses and consumers

• Consumer spending weakens: Households cut back due to rising fuel and living costs

• Industrial activity pressured: Higher input costs reduce margins and output

• Recession risk rises sharply: A 3-month disruption significantly increases odds of an economic downturn

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Geopolitical & Military Risk Premium

• Heightened global tensions: Increased risk of military escalation in the Middle East

• Shipping and insurance costs surge: Global trade becomes more expensive and less efficient

• Stronger dollar (initially): Safe-haven flows into USD and Treasuries

• Defense sector benefits: Increased military spending expectations boost defense stocks

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Bottom Line

• Three months is a game-changer—not a blip

• Transforms a temporary shock into a systemic global energy crisis

• U.S. faces a mix of higher inflation + slower growth (stagflation risk)

• Markets likely remain volatile with downside bias, while energy dominates as the clear winner

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All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated.