Selection for this week
Some Pros about the stock
Some Cons about the stock
Why the Quants like this stock
Criteria for choosing
The previous selections
The momentum stocks in the portfolio saw a choppy seven days since last Thursday. The addition of Marathon Petroleum continues the trend of diversifying this Portfolio.
Add: MPC (Marathon Petroleum) – Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
What does the company do?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is an integrated downstream energy company operating across the U.S. through three segments: Refining & Marketing, Midstream, and Renewable Diesel.
The company refines crude oil and other feedstocks, sells gasoline, diesel, asphalt and other refined products, and operates an extensive network of pipelines, terminals, storage facilities and transportation assets. Its Midstream business also gathers, processes and transports natural gas and natural gas liquids. Marathon also produces, markets and distributes renewable diesel from renewable feedstocks.
Founded in 1887 and headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, Marathon Petroleum is one of the largest U.S. refining and energy companies.
Why Some Investors Are Bullish
Exceptional Q2 2026 earnings — MPC reported $5.1 billion of net income, or $17.73 per diluted share, versus $1.2 billion and $3.96 a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA reached $8.5 billion, reflecting strong performance across the business.
Exceptional refining margins — Refining & Marketing margin more than doubled to $36.33 per barrel from $17.58 a year earlier, while R&M adjusted EBITDA jumped to $6.7 billion from $1.9 billion. Higher crack spreads across all regions were the primary driver.
Strong cash generation and shareholder returns — MPC generated substantial cash during the quarter and returned more than $2.8 billion to shareholders, including approximately $2.53 billion in share repurchases. The company also had $6.1 billion remaining under its repurchase authorization at quarter-end.
Strong liquidity and financial flexibility — MPC had approximately $7.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents at June 30, 2026 and no borrowings under its $5 billion revolving credit facility. Its financial position provides flexibility to continue investing and returning capital to shareholders.
Strong analyst support and MPLX growth — TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and raised its price target to $375, while MPC said MPLX expects 12.5% annual distribution growth in 2026 and 2027. MPC shares have also surged more than 120% in 2026, reflecting the market’s strong response to the refining environment.
What Bears Are Worried About
Refining margins may be difficult to sustain — The $36.33-per-barrel R&M margin was roughly double the year-ago level and was supported by unusually strong crack spreads and global fuel-supply disruptions. If refining conditions normalize, MPC’s earnings could fall sharply because refining is inherently cyclical.
The stock has already had an enormous run — MPC gained roughly 124% year-to-date through August 21 and more than 122% over the prior year, substantially outperforming the S&P 500. With shares near elevated levels, expectations are high and even strong results could trigger a pullback if margins or earnings disappoint.
Leverage remains meaningful despite strong liquidity — MPC reported approximately $32.8 billion of consolidated debt and a 56.1% debt-to-capitalization ratio at June 30. While cash and liquidity provide a substantial cushion, investors should remember that MPC’s earnings remain highly sensitive to refining margins, crack spreads and broader energy-market conditions.
Why the Quants like this stock
P/E Non-GAAP (FWD) A- 7.18
PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) A 33.00%
Revenue Growth (YoY) B 15.15%
EPS FWD Long Term Growth (3-5Y CAGR) A- 21.75%
ROE Growth (FWD) A 26.85%
Return on Common Equity (TTM) A+ 47.88%
3M Price Performance A+ 45.20%
FY1 Up Revisions (last 90 days) 14 up and 0 down
Dividend Safety A 1.11%Latest Quarter’s Earnings
Announce Date 8/4/2026
EPS Normalized Actual $17.73 (Beat by $3.78)
EPS GAAP Actual $17.73 (Beat by $3.57)
Revenue Actual $52.34B
Revenue Surprise Beat by $10.90B
My View
I like MPC’s combination of exceptional current earnings, strong cash generation, shareholder returns and exposure to a powerful refining environment. However, I would be careful about extrapolating Q2’s extraordinary profitability too far into the future because refining margins are cyclical and can normalize quickly. After a gain of more than 120% this year, I would view MPC as a strong business with excellent momentum—but also a stock where expectations and valuation now leave less room for disappointment.
Top Quant Stock of the Week Criteria
I am using a Quantitative research platform that provides a daily list of top-ranked stocks to buy or sell, based on a Comprehensive Quant Score. This Quant system uses computer algorithms to come up with its rankings. This score incorporates multiple factors, including valuation, growth, profitability, momentum, and EPS revisions.
I will be giving heavy weight to strong momentum and strong EPS revisions to make the weekly selection. Then, I will use my tested proprietary criteria to sort and then break any tie.
One stock will be selected each week. That would make 52 selections a year if I don’t miss any weeks because of internet problems.
The hold times for the stocks added will be 1 week to years. Although a 1 week hold would be rare, it could happen if the stocks Quant metrics took a big nose dive right after being selected. If an added stock maintains its good metrics, it will be kept in the portfolio until it doesn’t. No time limit. The Quant system will tell me when it is time to let it go. So the hold time is short, medium and long depending on the Quant system metrics.
All countries are included. ADR’s are ok but Pink Sheet stocks will not be allowed.
Certain Industries are excluded. My testing shows they do not perform well using Quantitative rankings. Two of the main ones are BioTechnology and Pharmacueticals.
The Remove Criteria: Once the stock no longer qualifies to be retained in the Portfolio, it will be removed. This could be because the companies metrics have deteriorated since selection, it is involved in a buyout or financial reporting problems.
Once a stock has been added to the Active list, it will not be added to. No doubling down.
The stocks considered are larger small cap, mid cap, large cap and Mega cap. They will be fairly easy to trade with opening or closing market orders as one of the ways to enter and exit positions.
It should be expected that about 50 stocks will be Active in the Portfolio in any given week, once it gets to the two year mark.
All stocks are added as equal weight. No rebalancing is to occur.
To be considered for addition, the stock has to be in the top group of Quant rankings for just several weeks. This is to allow newly upgraded stocks to qualify quickly. Hopefully, this will catch a couple of strong momentum stocks early in their move.
Once a stock is removed for cause, it can be added back in once it meets the add criteria. No waiting period is required.
There will be no limits on percentages of stocks in the Portfolio by Sector or Industry.
Previous Selections:
For a look at the live scorecard for Position Trader, see the google doc link below.
It has the Live performance numbers and some links back to more information about the three Quant stock Model Portfolio's.
https://live-scorecard.position-trader.com/
Other links:
https://positiontrader.blog/four-model-portfolios/#weekly
https://positiontrader.blog/four-model-portfolios/#30
https://positiontrader.blog/four-model-portfolios/#legacy
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1P2W1994O6SXvb4qfx2fqCFXnJSbPH3KJWQvqrGNqmCw/edit?tab=t.0