Top Quant Stock Pick This Week – July 23, 2026
10th Top Quant Stock is revealed
Selection for this week
Some Pros about the stock
Some Cons about the stock
Criteria for choosing
The previous selections
The momentum stocks powering this portfolio rallied back some during the last week. The fundamentals have not changed on the previously selected stocks so the outlook is still positive for the portfolio.
Add: PBF (PBF Energy) – Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
What does the company do?
PBF Energy Inc. is one of the largest independent U.S. refiners, operating six refineries that produce gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, lubricants, petrochemicals, and asphalt. The company also owns pipelines, terminals, and storage assets that support its refining and fuel distribution business across the U.S. and internationally. Based in Parsippany, New Jersey, PBF was founded in 2008.
Why Some Investors Are Bullish
Exceptional refining margins are driving strong earnings.
Crack spreads have recently exceeded $60, supported by geopolitical disruptions, tight global refining capacity, and strong fuel demand. If refining margins remain elevated, PBF could continue generating substantial free cash flow over the next several years. For refiners, higher crack spreads can significantly boost profitability once fixed operating costs are covered.
The company has returned to profitability.
PBF reported net income of $198.3 million in the first quarter of 2026, compared with a $401.8 million loss a year earlier. The turnaround reflects improved refinery operations combined with a much stronger refining margin environment. A healthier balance between operations and market conditions has strengthened earnings.
Diversified refining assets reduce operational risk.
PBF operates six refineries across multiple U.S. regions along with pipelines, terminals, and storage assets. This geographic diversification reduces reliance on any single refinery or regional market. Few independent refiners have such a broad operating footprint.
Operational improvements complement favorable market conditions.
Higher refinery utilization and improved operating performance have combined with strong refining margins to lift profitability. Better execution allows the company to capture more value during favorable market environments. Strong operations become especially valuable when margins are elevated.
What Bears Are Worried About
The stock has surged beyond many analyst price targets.
After nearly doubling over the past year, PBF trades above most analyst targets, which generally range from the low-$40s to mid-$40s. Much of the improving outlook now appears reflected in the share price. That leaves less room for disappointment if refining margins weaken.
Valuation is no longer as attractive.
Following its strong rally, PBF no longer appears as inexpensive as it did a year ago. Investors are paying a higher multiple because they expect refining margins and cash flow to remain strong. If margins normalize, today’s valuation could become harder to justify.
Profits remain highly dependent on refining margins.
Current earnings are benefiting from unusually favorable industry conditions, including geopolitical disruptions, constrained global refining capacity, and strong fuel demand. Refining is a cyclical business, and margins can change quickly. If industry conditions normalize, earnings and free cash flow could decline significantly.
Bottom Line
PBF Energy has benefited from one of the strongest refining environments in years, with elevated crack spreads driving a sharp turnaround in earnings and cash flow. The company also benefits from a diversified network of six refineries, improving operations, and more constructive analyst sentiment.
However, much of that optimism now appears reflected in the stock price after its significant rally. Because refining is a highly cyclical business, future performance will depend largely on whether today’s unusually strong refining margins can be sustained.
Top Quant Stock of the Week Criteria
I am using a Quantitative research platform that provides a daily list of top-ranked stocks to buy or sell, based on a Comprehensive Quant Score. This Quant system uses computer algorithms to come up with its rankings. This score incorporates multiple factors, including valuation, growth, profitability, momentum, and EPS revisions.
I will be giving heavy weight to strong momentum and strong EPS revisions to make the weekly selection. Then, I will use my tested proprietary criteria to sort and then break any tie.
One stock will be selected each week. That would make 52 selections a year if I don’t miss any weeks because of internet problems.
The hold times for the stocks added will be 1 week to years. Although a 1 week hold would be rare, it could happen if the stocks Quant metrics took a big nose dive right after being selected. If an added stock maintains its good metrics, it will be kept in the portfolio until it doesn’t. No time limit. The Quant system will tell me when it is time to let it go. So the hold time is short, medium and long depending on the Quant system metrics.
All countries are included. ADR’s are ok but Pink Sheet stocks will not be allowed.
Certain Industries are excluded. My testing shows they do not perform well using Quantitative rankings. Two of the main ones are BioTechnology and Pharmacueticals.
The Remove Criteria: Once the stock no longer qualifies to be retained in the Portfolio, it will be removed. This could be because the companies metrics have deteriorated since selection, it is involved in a buyout or financial reporting problems.
Once a stock has been added to the Active list, it will not be added to. No doubling down.
The stocks considered are larger small cap, mid cap, large cap and Mega cap. They will be fairly easy to trade with opening or closing market orders as one of the ways to enter and exit positions.
It should be expected that about 50 stocks will be Active in the Portfolio in any given week, once it gets to the two year mark.
All stocks are added as equal weight. No rebalancing is to occur.
To be considered for addition, the stock has to be in the top group of Quant rankings for just several weeks. This is to allow newly upgraded stocks to qualify quickly. Hopefully, this will catch a couple of strong momentum stocks early in their move.
Once a stock is removed for cause, it can be added back in once it meets the add criteria. No waiting period is required.
There will be no limits on percentages of stocks in the Portfolio by Sector or Industry.
Previous Selections:
For a look at the live scorecard for Position Trader, see the google doc link below.
It has the Live performance numbers and some links back to more information about the three Quant stock Model Portfolio's.
https://live-scorecard.position-trader.com/
I like the new pick of the oil company. Helps balance out the portfolio a little. Hopefully, more balance can continue in the following weeks.