Top Quant Stock Pick This Week – September 10, 2026

An Atlanta-based home care platform delivering patient-centered pediatric and adult healthcare services across three core segments: Private Duty Services (PDS), Home Health & Hospice (HHH), and Medica

Position Trader

Sep 10, 2026

A woman points at a graph displaying an upward trend on a screen, while a man observes and holds a mug. The screen includes headings for 'Momentum' and 'EPS Revisions.' A notebook titled 'Position Trader Daily Journal' is on the table alongside a laptop and a potted plant.

Selection for this week
Some Pros about the stock
Some Cons about the stock
Why the Quants like this stock
Criteria for choosing
The previous selections

The momentum stocks in the portfolio rallied a bit since last Thursday. This is line with the slight rebound in momentum stocks in the market since then. This week, another highly ranked Quant stock that is not IT is revealed. Balancing out the portfolio a little. When the IT momentum stocks resume their strong upward movement, the portfolio is well positioned to benefit from that.

Add: AVAH (Aveanna Healthcare) – Medical Care Facilities

What does the company do?

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: AVAH) is an Atlanta-based home care platform delivering patient-centered pediatric and adult healthcare services across three core segments: Private Duty Services (PDS), Home Health & Hospice (HHH), and Medical Solutions (MS). By transitioning care to lower-cost home settings through in-home skilled nursing, therapy, hospice care, and enteral nutrition supplies, Aveanna improves patient outcomes while mitigating the overutilization of expensive acute care facilities and hospitals. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Why Some Investors Are Bullish

Strong Q2 2026 results with broad-based growth — Aveanna generated $670.5 million of revenue for the quarter ended July 4, 2026, up 13.7% year over year, with growth across all three business segments. Net income increased to $40.3 million from $27.0 million, while adjusted EPS was $0.22 versus $0.17 expected, according to consensus estimates.
Raised full-year 2026 guidance — Management increased its 2026 revenue outlook to more than $2.68 billion, up from its previous range of $2.63 billion to $2.65 billion, and raised adjusted EBITDA guidance to more than $365 million, versus the prior range of $338 million to $342 million. The company also expects to generate at least $150 million of free cash flow for the full year.
Progress on preferred-payer agreements and California reimbursement — Aveanna had 37 Private Duty Services preferred-payer agreements at the end of Q2, versus its full-year goal of 38, and management expects to exceed that target. In Home Health, Aveanna reached its goal of 50 preferred-payer agreements during Q2. The company also secured a California private-duty-nursing reimbursement-rate increase scheduled to take effect January 1, 2027, following years of advocacy.
Improving profitability and cash generation — Six-month revenue increased 14.8% to $1.318 billion, while adjusted EBITDA rose 15.4% to $179.8 million. Free cash flow reached $75.4 million during the first six months, and net income rose to $81.9 million from $32.2 million in the prior-year period.
Valuation remains reasonable despite the stock’s strong rally — AVAH shares jumped approximately 24.7% on August 13 following the earnings release and have continued to appreciate since then. Even after the rally, the shares trade at roughly 14–15x forward earnings, depending on the data source, which leaves room for further upside if Aveanna can deliver on its higher earnings and cash-flow outlook.

What Bears Are Worried About

Gross-margin pressure remains a concern — Q2 gross margin declined to 32.6% of revenue from 35.8% a year earlier, while adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 14.2% from 15.0%. The company is growing revenue and earnings, but continued margin compression could limit how much of that top-line growth flows through to shareholders.
Heavy debt load — Aveanna had $1.483 billion of total indebtedness and $97.2 million of cash as of July 4, 2026. That leverage creates financial risk and could limit flexibility if reimbursement rates, labor costs, volumes or operating margins deteriorate. The company does, however, have additional borrowing capacity and an undrawn revolver.
Significant exposure to reimbursement rates and labor costs — Private Duty Services is Aveanna’s largest business, and the company remains heavily exposed to Medicaid and managed-care reimbursement, caregiver wages and labor availability. The California rate increase is a meaningful potential tailwind, but the fact that the increase followed years of advocacy highlights how much the economics of the business can depend on government and payer decisions outside the company’s direct control.

Why the Quants like this stock

PEG Non-GAAP (FWD) A 0.8
Revenue Growth (YoY) B 19.52%
EPS FWD Long Term Growth (3-5Y CAGR) A 21.21%
Free Cash Flow Per Share Growth Rate (FWD) A+ 93.30%
Return on Common Equity (TTM) A+ 198.57%
3M Price Performance A+ 104.08%
FY1 Up Revisions (last 90 days) 10 UP 0 Down

Latest Quarter’s Earnings
Announce Date 8/13/2026
EPS Normalized Actual $0.22 (Beat by $0.05)
EPS GAAP Actual $0.18 (Beat by $0.03)
Revenue Actual $670.48M
Revenue Surprise Beat by $31.85M

My View

Aveanna’s investment story is becoming more interesting because revenue growth is now being accompanied by meaningful profitability and free-cash-flow generation. The higher 2026 guidance, progress with preferred payers and upcoming California reimbursement increase provide potential catalysts, while margin compression and substantial leverage remain important risks to monitor. The stock’s sharp post-earnings rally also means investors now have higher expectations, making continued execution increasingly important.

Infographic displaying Aveanna Healthcare's Q2 2026 financial results, including increased revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and net income. Features a smiling healthcare worker interacting with an elderly patient, emphasizing care and community health.

Top Quant Stock of the Week Criteria

I am using a Quantitative research platform that provides a daily list of top-ranked stocks to buy or sell, based on a Comprehensive Quant Score. This Quant system uses computer algorithms to come up with its rankings. This score incorporates multiple factors, including valuation, growth, profitability, momentum, and EPS revisions.

I will be giving heavy weight to strong momentum and strong EPS revisions to make the weekly selection. Then, I will use my tested proprietary criteria to sort and then break any tie.

One stock will be selected each week. That would make 52 selections a year if I don’t miss any weeks because of internet problems.

The hold times for the stocks added will be 1 week to years. Although a 1 week hold would be rare, it could happen if the stocks Quant metrics took a big nose dive right after being selected. If an added stock maintains its good metrics, it will be kept in the portfolio until it doesn’t. No time limit. The Quant system will tell me when it is time to let it go. So the hold time is short, medium and long depending on the Quant system metrics.

All countries are included. ADR’s are ok but Pink Sheet stocks will not be allowed.

Certain Industries are excluded. My testing shows they do not perform well using Quantitative rankings. Two of the main ones are BioTechnology and Pharmacueticals.

The Remove Criteria: Once the stock no longer qualifies to be retained in the Portfolio, it will be removed. This could be because the companies metrics have deteriorated since selection, it is involved in a buyout or financial reporting problems.

Once a stock has been added to the Active list, it will not be added to. No doubling down.

The stocks considered are larger small cap, mid cap, large cap and Mega cap. They will be fairly easy to trade with opening or closing market orders as one of the ways to enter and exit positions.

It should be expected that about 50 stocks will be Active in the Portfolio in any given week, once it gets to the two year mark.

All stocks are added as equal weight. No rebalancing is to occur.

To be considered for addition, the stock has to be in the top group of Quant rankings for just several weeks. This is to allow newly upgraded stocks to qualify quickly. Hopefully, this will catch a couple of strong momentum stocks early in their move.

Once a stock is removed for cause, it can be added back in once it meets the add criteria. No waiting period is required.

There will be no limits on percentages of stocks in the Portfolio by Sector or Industry.

Previous Selections:

A table listing active stock positions with two columns: 'Ticker' and 'Add Date'. The tickers include CNC, CRDO, INTC, LITE, and others, along with their corresponding addition dates.

All content on this site is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult relevant financial professionals in your country of residence to get personalized advice before you make any trading or investing decisions. This post was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The original ideas and final review are human-generated.

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